THE DEBATE continues to rebound in Mitt Romney’s favor. What remains intransigent are the demographics. African Americans, Hispanics, and especially women, would have to fall out completely with President Obama to change the race’s trajectory enough for Mitt Romney to overtake him. There is no evidence yet that this has begun to happen.
Republicans are touting a shift in Ohio, but we’ll have to see if this is confirmed by unbiased polling firms before the Citizens United poll is believed.
Four of the five national polls published on Saturday showed improvement for Mr. Romney. In the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, which conducted about two-thirds of its interviews after the debate, we went from a two-point deficit against Barack Obama to a two-point lead. Mr. Romney gained two points in the Gallup tracking poll, which now shows him down by three. He also gained roughly 1.5 percentage points in the RAND Corporation’s online tracking poll, reversing a gain that Mr. Obama had made on Friday. And a companion pair of polls published by Clarus Research Group just before and after the debate showed a five-point swing toward Mr. Romney. He trailed Mr. Obama by four points in a poll that Clarus Research Group conducted on Tuesday night, before the debate, but led him by one point in a poll they conducted on Thursday.
[...] Still, as I wrote yesterday, my guess is that the forecast model is still being somewhat too conservative about accounting for the change in the environment. In a good number of the polls, Mr. Romney has not only improved his own standing but also taken voters away from Mr. Obama’s column, suggesting that he has peeled off some of Mr. Obama’s softer support in addition to gaining ground among undecided voters.
One thing anecdotally is that in Alexandria, Virginia, political signs are starting to pop up everywhere. Romney-Ryan had been winning the sign war, but there are more and more Obama-Biden signs.