IT’S THE poll avalanche. Not my favorite thing, but it’s all the news while we wait for Biden versus Ryan tonight. And despite the flop sweat from Democrats, with infotainment hosts like Joe Scarborough pronouncing Obama “the underdog,” the President retains the advantage at this point.
The positive economic news appears to have buffered the president in Virginia, Wisconsin and Colorado from the substantial improvement in Mr. Romney’s national poll numbers over the past week. The three battleground polls suggest that challenges remain for Mr. Romney in the next 26 days even as his supporters express new confidence about their candidate. – Voters Give Romney Better Grades for Leadership, Polls in 3 States Find
The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll confirms remaining challenges for Mitt Romney
But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)
Obama also remains ahead in Nevada.
Romney’s move may have come too late and after too sustained a spectacle of mistakes, going back to the London Olympics. The Republican National Convention also looms as a missed opportunity, though nothing could have buffeted Republicans against the phenomenal show of their Democratic opponents.
It makes every single debate critical for the Romney campaign. Tonight matters as well, especially on the base enthusiasm meter, which could end up being the whole election.
However, if Mitt Romney can capitalize and confirm his new status in presidential traits in the next debate, a town hall that makes this harder to accomplish, Obama could start to sag just as Election Day nears. But it would require escaping a hit for the extreme views Romney had to run on to win the nomination in the first place.
UPDATE: …and another poll, this one with analysis from Nate Silver explaining Romney’s surge and what it means with all the pollmania data we’re seeing. But again, as I’ve been saying, it remains advantage Obama.
For the time being, however, Mr. Romney continues to rocket forward in our projections. The forecast model now gives him about a one-in-three chance of winning the Electoral College (more specifically, a 32.1 percent chance), his highest figure since Aug. 22 and more than double his chances from before the debate. Mr. Romney may have increased his chances of becoming president by 15 or 20 percent based on one night in Denver.
The more troubling sign for Mr. Romney, however, is that although he’s made gains, he does not seem to have taken the lead in very many state polls. That trend, if anything, has become more entrenched. Of the half-dozen or so polls of battleground states published on Wednesday, none showed Mr. Romney ahead; the best result he managed was a 48-48 tie in a Rasmussen Reports poll of New Hampshire.
Romney’s two biggest problems (which also happen to be two big problems with us as a whole:)
1. The Electoral College: Romney can pull ahead in the national popular vote, but it’s totally meaningless because Obama maintains leads in Florida and Ohio. So both major candidates must continue to pander to the Centrists who hold the balance of power in those states, never mind that less than 5% of the country lives in them. Maybe if Romney wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral College the GOP will finally “get” what happened in 2000 (never mind the stolen Florida vote) we can have a bipartisan consensus that the ancient, useless device has got to go.
2. (Ridiculously) Early Voting. I’m all for moving Election Day to the weekend, allowing early voting a week or two before the designated day in November- but please, allowing people to cast ballots a month or more previous is an absurd abdication of responsibility. It’s like an English teacher telling students to read a book, but if they don’t really want to, feel free to skip to the Conclusion and just read that. I don’t see the benefit of telling people “forget the debates, forget the discussions leading up to the election, feel free to vote now.” Sure, people make up their mind early- I don’t think that should necessarily lead to the system being adjusted to allow them to make their closed-minded decision official.
Demographics.
Is anyone besides me sick to death of it being up to everyone else to save Obama’s bacon? Think of what Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the DNC did for him, speeches by ; Deval Patrick, Jennifer Granholm ( who will ever forget?) John Kerry, MIchelle Obama, Joe Biden and that young mayor Castro…all boffo! Then WJC set it up for him,laid it out on a platter. Anyone remember what Obama said? Even one line?
Now it is all up to Joe~
The entire Democratic establishment and all of the so called liberal media bought a pig in a poke. I wish I could read their minds now.
Before solo starts in on me….I see the good things in the President and his family but I don’t see leadership of the Democratic Party or the country. I wish he had followed his true talents and become a brilliant writer.
That’s because there is no “leadership,” except to move rightward.
Absolutely correct- their talents are wasted on this empty-suit President. Listening to them give speeches in praise of Obama is like watching a Shakespearean actor endorsing some bad tv sitcom or a world-class chef singing the praises of Denny’s. You kind of feel bad for them.
Meanwhile, one thing both candidates can agree on is that they don’t want Gary Johnson or Jill Stein within fifty yards of a debating stage with them. A polite exchange of platitudes is what the Duopoly agrees to every four years. Actual ideas which could make a difference? Please drop them in the circular file cabinet on the way in, thank you very much.
It’s a huge mistake, not to mention inaccurate, to call Obama an “empty-suit President.”
What he’s done has methodically entrenched more corporate Democratic power, replacing Blue Dogs with something far more lethal to progressive economics. Health care was equally calculated and purposefully targeted to the status quo, which Obama packaged beyond a debate that was irrelevant.
As for the military industrial complex, it has spread unabated post-Bush, with Obama empowering the secret complex that is more powerful than when he was elected.
You’re right, he’s not an empty suit. Empty promises, empty rhetoric, but definitely an agenda behind it all.
I haven’t completely figured Obama out even after four years, but the things you mention could have happened BECAUSE Obama is an empty suit and are not necessarily evidence that he isn’t. My impression has been that he’s easily led and is mainly a party spokesman as opposed to showing leadership and competence.
I don’t mistake lack of principles, or having principles different from mine, as being a sign of weakness. On a large number of issues, including health care, defense, and the economy, he has done the things consistent with the philosophies of the advisors he’s chosen. Unless you accept the idea that he chose those advisors with no regard to what their philosophies might be, then it’s pretty clear that he is doing what he set out to do.
In short, he’s not an empty suit. He just wants something other than what most of us commenting here want.
All important points Taylor.