“… Who made that long case for ‘look, it may not feel good yet, but this is the right path’? Who is making that argument moreso than the President? It’s Bill Clinton. It’s hard not to look at this as the Bill Clinton bump.” – Chuck Todd [on MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Reports]
ON ANDREA MITCHELL Reports today, Chuck Todd teased some new numbers from a NBC/WSJ poll, which reveals the presidential race as it stands today is not just advantage Obama, but puts Pres. Obama leading Mitt Romney, who is now clearly behind in critical areas.
.@chucktodd breaks out 2 new NBC-WSJ poll numbers on #mitchellreports today: 47% think Obama better prepared for next 4 yrs 36% Romney
— Andrea Mitchell (@mitchellreports) September 18, 2012
Obama leading by 11 points on the standard of preparedness comes into stark clarity after the last 24 hours.
On the “are you better off” question, it’s now 38% say they are, compared to 31% who thought so before the Democratic National Convention.
Todd also said that the shift in the new numbers show “big movement among independents” in the post convention polling. As for “is the cement drying?,” as Todd put it, he said Romney has a chance in the debates, however, as it stands today, President Obama is clearly ahead.
I’d go further. Today, with all that’s happened, then adding the new polling above, I’d say Mitt Romney is now the underdog. Historically, Americans roots for this guy, however, there’s no evidence anyone is rooting for Mitt Romney, starting on the Republican side. So Romney’s October 3 debate has to be something besides sound bites; he needs to do damage.
The Bill Clinton bump? LOL! Christ!
Heheheheheheh… I know! It’s *almost* too much.
I hope Sasha doesn’t read the article this post is based on? She’ll blow a gasket!
That first debate is Romney’s last chance and it’s a chance for President Obama to deliver a knockout punch to Romney’s wobbly campaign!
Gallup: Obama 47%, Romney 46% among registered voters.
Rasmussen: Romney 47%, Obama 45% among likely voters.
AND the national debt is over $16 trillion.
*oops, sorry. my bad.*
Stop harshing Solo’s “Yay My Guy is winning by Default!” buzz!
LOL!
ok, just one last poll.
CNBC live poll:
Do you agree with what Romney said?
75% YES
22% NO
3% Not SURE
Total Votes: 11,305
CNBC, riiiiight, the business side of NBC cable. Gee, I wonder what kind of people view that channel? A self-selecting poll drawn from a unrepresentative cross section of the public; get out of town with that garbage.
Isn’t this about an NBC poll?
-and we all know how they LOVE Obama and are working overtime to drag him across the finish line.
Update: 76% with over 13K voting…
No Sasha, It is CNBC,
Two huge flaws with the poll: Self-Selecting sample, and biased sample selection due to the nature of who CNBC broadcast to– business types.
CNBC is narrowcasting, it has a target audience– small investors. Conflating CNBC with NBC is like conflating cupcakes to wedding cakes.
This is like the telephone poll all the way back in early 1930′s. That poll had Hoover way up over Roosevelt. As we know FDR won in landslide. The flaw of that poll was how it was conducted, by telephone. In the early ’30′s only the wealthy could afford phones. Of course the well healed supported Hoover, as they would any other Republican.
So, no matter how large the sample of the CNBC poll, it will still be worthless. The fatal flaws of the biased sample and the self-selecting nature of the vote tilt the poll severely. It is as if I used a poll taken during the Rachel Maddow show to prove Obama was way ahead, and running away. That too would be false for the very same reasons: a flawed sample and the self selecting sample.
Any poll set up like this will be flawed. It barely qualifies as Infotainment because the info part of the equation is so seriously flawed as to be bogus. CNBC is just chumming the waters here, trying to capture eyeballs. Its troll bait, and you dear Sasha were the foolish fish that took a huge bite of the baited hook.
Take a group of creationists, give them some LSD, and the resulting conversation would have all the scientific value of an Internet poll. If you want to see how that works, go over to Pharyngula, tell PZ Myers about the poll, and come back a half hour later. They love messing with those things.
spincitysd’s point that the people who answer that poll are a self-selecting group is correct. As polling populations go, such a group is utterly worthless for determining anything beyond what the people who went to that site and answered that poll think, assuming, of course, none of them figured out how to game it.
I do await PZ and his merry pranksters harshing Sasha’s groove. Love the description of the reality of internet polling, especially having the participants dropping acid; nice touch.
Washington Post: Obama ahead of Romney 52%-44%!
http://news.yahoo.com/poll-obama-leads-romney-virginia-141946646–politics.html
Yes “My Guy” is winning! So are people with pre-existing conditions. So are people who think women have a right to make their own healthcare choices. So are gays in the military. So are women who think they should get paid the same as a man for doing the same work and so are all those undocumented kids who where brought here by their parents! They are all winning because of this President!
Ya, right, winning:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QS0q3mGPGg
What was the point of that?
Sasha do you really think people are stupid? Realclearpolitics has 11 polls up on it’s latest board and out of all those polls you picked out the two well known for their right wing bent! 11 polls and President Obama is ahead in 10 of them and the one with Romney ahead is within margin of error!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general-1171.html
Rasmussen is well known to tilt Republican, and a 2 percentage point gap is within the margin of error. So, we have a Republican Tilting Outlier Poll showing the race as a toss up. Go Team Romney? Not really.
Let’s see who blew up the debt with tax cuts for the rich and two wars payed off the books? Obama? Nope. Under whose watch did the Casino Capitalism of Wall Street roll snake eyes? Obama? Nope. In the last term of wich president was the economy loosing 3/4 of a million jobs a month? Obama? Nope. And which candidate has chosen a running mate whose budget plan would actually make the debt worse? Obama? Nope.
Plus, riddle me this, if Romney is so much better than Obama on the economy, why is he stuck in a dead heat with Obama in both your Gallup and Rasmussen polls. R-money should be running away and hiding with this economy. A real unemployment rate that is closer to 16% than the official 8.2% should be making Obama in to the Democratic answer to Herbert Hoover; but it is not. And why? Because Romney is the worst national pol to run for president in at least a generation. Giving the middle finger to near half the US population is wretched politics. The voters will return that gesture in the General.
Yes, Rasmusen tilts Republican. In the 2008 Election, their final prediction was Obama 52, McCain 46. Obama won 52.9% to 45.6%. Not much of a tilt.
Let’s face it, Al Gore was the worst person to run for election in your lifetime, that includes Mondale and David Duke.
Al Gore? Hardly he won the popular vote. If he was the worst in your book, exactly what does that say about Bozo de Bush?
Bill Clinton did a great job at the DNC for Obama. However, Obama has to hit a home run in the debates. Even with all Mitt Romney gaffes…the guy is still VERY competitive and just like with John Kerry…everyone thought George Bush would not win. I think the same base that pulled Bush to the finish line in 2004 is holding tight around Mitt Romney…these people are motivated by hatred and fear of President Obama.
I also believe the leaked speech by Romney will not hurt him with his base…or right leaning Independents. There are people in this country that honestly believe that 47% of Americans ( minorities) only support Obama because they are lazy and want free handouts.
I find those beliefs ironic…coming from a party that picked a GOP candidate who refuses to pay his fair share of taxes…and is on the record begging for government assistance for his company. Mitt Romney is very lucky he is running against the aka Foreigner…because if it was someone else that couldn’t be labeled as such…this race would not even be this close.
Marie,
I do not think Mitt wanted this released into the wild. Anyway you slice it, the 47% comment is super-toxic. Romney does not need to energize his base. It could be raining big honking asteroids on election day and Romney’s base will come out.
What R-money just gifted the Democratic Party was a GOTV talking point to their base. The Democratic Base was unmotivated. The Big Dog then howled, and that got the Donkeys kicking up their heals. But it took Willard Romney, silver spoon jackass, to throw gasoline on an already smoldering fire.
I cringe to think of what the Democratic oppo-groups will do with this gem. I especially cringe for Ms Marsh in VA. To her all I can say is, “INCOMING! TAKE COVER!” Man, this thing is going to have legs all the way to November.
I love that cartoon of Clinton, BTW. Batting from the left side, but using a righty’s grip. I’m a fan of subtelty, on those occasions when I understand it at least.
Repeal 22
Viva the 22nd amendment! Lifetime Presidencies are for banana republics!
We’ll be there soon enough, and amending the Constitution takes so much time. I say, let’s be prepared. “President For Life” has such a ring to it.
I think it is a Democratic Convention bump, with Bill Clinton certainly an important part of it. He laid the case out bare in a speech I thought was one of his best ever. He, as a former president, could say things that President Obama could not, and, in turn, be a great advocate for President Obama. Whoever orchestrated that convention did a super job – I thought it was one of the best Dem. conventions I’ve seen. Having said that, I think President Obama has been vulnerable on the economy but the Republicans don’t have a candidate who can connect with Main Street. I don’t think their campaign is being managed well, either.
*taps multiple shoulders in here and whispers*
you guys are the 47% he said he’s not talking to.
Bottom line Sasha, casual,PWT and all the other wingnuteers here are wailing and knashing their teeth in advance of their po widdle heads exploding come the day after the election. Be4 nice, they are under a lot of pressure from their repugnantklan/teabagger/UBERChristian overLords as Mitt da Twit and Lyin Ryan self immolate and drag the repug/bagger/Uber brand down with them.
have you been drinking sec?
Sadly, it’s not that he’s been drinking or that the Thorazine has worn off, he’s so incredibly ignorant that he believes that his jibberish insults are actual arguments. He is unable to comprehend that a
could actually work in the private sector and earn any money as he has not been able to hold down a job in years due to his repulsive personalit – except, of course, the cash he earns down at the public restrooms in the park.
” He is unable to comprehend that a”
Well THAT’S for sure a well thought out, well reasoned comment!! Thanks for showing us the BRILLIANCE of the wingnut set once again!!!
How’s that head feel, kinda full of pressure?
that looks like a typo sec.
what’s your excuse?
By the waysome eight of my ÜBER Christian buddies and I were tea bagging your wife the other night and she didn’t have change for our dollars, we decided to ‘spress the wealth’ and let her keep the extra $2.70.
So you just went after Sec for his so called insults, but yours are OK? I kind of smell a double standard here, but I’m not surprised, that’s how the right wing operates
-reads angels comments.
-scans the thread.
yep, just as I thought.
sec started it.
I suppose if sec jumped of a cliff, you and PWT would follow, right? Ya know, he started it.
BWAHAHAHAHAHA! You wingnutters is sho funny!
Seems PWT is getting ready to have an coronary there! I fail to see how a simple statement of reality (wailing, knashing teeth, overLords and such)engendered such blood pressure spiking gibbering from PWT?
Sasha maybe you should go put a cold compress on his fevered brow?
Ahhhh, the class come shining through the scum!!