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Debate Week, Romney’s Chances “Slim”

Five weeks to Election Day, President Barack Obama is within reach of the 270 electoral votes needed to win a second term. Republican Mitt Romney’s path to victory is narrowing. To overtake Obama, Romney would need to quickly gain the upper hand in nearly all of the nine states where he and Obama are competing the hardest. – Mitt Romney’s path to victory narrows, AP analysis shows

IT BEGAN on the USS Wisconsin, but has turned into a sinking proposition.

But, but, but, the debates could change everything. That’s very unlikely, unless Obama sighs through the entire exchange. Gov. Chris Christie said on “Meet the Press” it all begins with “a restart” on Wednesday.

“Come Thursday morning the entire narrative is going to change.” – Gov. Chris Christie [Meet the Press]

Mitt Romney’s reportedly going to fact check the President. The man couldn’t find a coherent strategy even if Pat Riley and Phil Jackson were on board.

New York Magazine: So, basically, barring an October surprise, Romney’s chances are more like nil?

Nate Silver: Not nil, but slim. So the debates for example have proven to move the number by about 3 points in the past. So, for example, in 2000, Al Gore had about a 3-point lead against George W. Bush at this point in the election and was perceived to have lost the debates — I guess he sighed too often or something — and that was enough to reduce his lead and turn the election into what was almost literally a tie.

What Romney needs now is a miracle.

What Team Romney has to worry about is demoralization of the Republican base, as the evidence mounts that the race is already lost. It’s why efforts by Romney surrogates have become a kitchen sink strategy, which is likely to get louder, especially if Wednesday’s debate delivers a draw.

About Taylor Marsh

Veteran political analyst and author. Former Miss Missouri, Broadway performer, & relationship consultant at the LA Weekly, produced a one-woman show titled "Weeping for JFK."

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32 Responses to Debate Week, Romney’s Chances “Slim”

  1. fangio September 30, 2012 at 12:36 pm #

    ” DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN! “

    • angels81 September 30, 2012 at 1:37 pm #

      ” ROMNEY DEFEATS OBAMA”

      SLIM AND SLIMMER.

    • Solo September 30, 2012 at 5:57 pm #

      Keep dreaming! Romney is running a terrible campaign and this is a guy who’s has been running for President for 6 years! Queen Ann worries about her hubby’s mental health (just what u want to hear from the wife of the man running for President), his running mate can’t explain his tax plan and said so on TV for everyone to hear. Of course there is also that now famous 47% video! It’s not my job to worry about those people! Dewey Defeats Truman? Please! Polling in 1948 wasn’t nearly as sophisticated as it is now!

  2. psychodrew September 30, 2012 at 1:33 pm #

    Romney won’t be defeated until Election Day. It doesn’t look good for him right now, but the election isn’t over yet.

    • Solo September 30, 2012 at 6:01 pm #

      Psst! Voting has already started in half the country. In those states that are voting the Obama campaign is holding get out the vote rallies after which they are practically marching their supporters to the polls!

  3. secularhumanizinevoluter September 30, 2012 at 1:38 pm #

    Hope springs eternal apparently despite all indicators.

  4. jjamele September 30, 2012 at 4:48 pm #

    The Patriots have already won, so I’m watching two football teams play a game I couldn’t care less about. I don’t care who wins, because the impact on my life regardless will be exactly the same. And that’s how I feel about the Obama-Romney race; a very expensive game between two teams with nothing at stake.

    • Solo September 30, 2012 at 6:05 pm #

      Yep! A football game! Who gets to appoint judges to the Supreme Court of the United States! Exactly the same thing!

    • Solo September 30, 2012 at 6:08 pm #

      If left up to the likes of you blacks would still be slaves, women still wouldn’t be able to vote and gays would still be in the closet! That’s right just sit on your ass while others do the work!

      • Cujo359 September 30, 2012 at 6:26 pm #

        Solo, let me just say from the bottom of my furry heart that you are the champion of the dimwitted pissy comment. What in the world inspires you to write idiotic things like “If left up to the likes of you blacks would still be slaves”? You’re the one who shows up here incessantly to champion the status quo, which continues to get worse for most of us by the day. We’re still in two useless wars, committing war crimes in at least two other countries, and committing plenty of human rights abuses right here at home. The bankers who tried to destroy the economy aren’t in jail, and whistleblowers are. The economy isn’t getting better, and won’t. At least, it won’t but for the fortunate few. And, if one listens to you, complaining about this makes us the folks who kept blacks enslaved.

        • Solo September 30, 2012 at 7:07 pm #

          Cujo359, let me just say from the bottom of my belly I laugh at thee!

        • angels81 October 1, 2012 at 8:59 am #

          I have a hard time taking your arguments seriously because like the tea baggers, right wingers and some on the left, you talk in wide sweeping generalities. To claim ” the economy isn’t getting better, and won’t ” is factually untrue. To claim, like you have in the past, that there is no difference between Obama and Romney, and it doesn’t matter which one wins is more sweeping generalities not based in reality.

          There may not be a lot of differences between the two party’s, but if you are a senior, a person of color, a women, student, poor or working class, there’s enough of a difference not to make sweeping generalities about the state of this election or the candidates.

          • Cujo359 October 1, 2012 at 3:19 pm #

            I’ve writtten in enough specifics, both here and at my blog, that I don’t feel any need to recite them here for folks like you who have selective memories. Go read, become at least modestly educated on the topic, and then discuss my “wide sweeping generalities”. The economy isn’t getting any better. We still have more unemployed than we did at the start of the Obama Administration, if you remember to count expansion of the work force. Wages continue to fall for all but the richest in America. What’s more, once austerity sets in next year the tepid growth we have seen in the last year or so will seem like the good old days.

            Any of that sound familiar? Probably not. No doubt you’ll be telling me next year at this time how you saw all that coming. No, wait, it doesn’t look like Romney’s going to win now, so we’ll be having this same discussion, won’t we?

        • cjoblak@hotmail.com October 1, 2012 at 9:55 am #

          He was channeling Joe Biden.

      • jjamele October 1, 2012 at 9:02 am #

        Hey Taylor, why doesn’t this count as an off-topic personal attack? Solo has basically decided to cut out all attempts at subtlety and go right to his point- If you don’t support President Obama, You Are a Racist Who Wants Slavery Back.

        Seriously, I know you don’t like the word “troll,” but that’s all Solo is when he posts crap like this.

        • Solo October 1, 2012 at 10:46 am #

          Your reading comprehension needs some work! It’s either that or you like to deliberately twist what people say!

          • jjamele October 1, 2012 at 1:44 pm #

            On another thread, just yesterday, you said in so many words that only the insane and the racist criticize the President. You’ve gone beyond your excessive cheerleading straight into McCarthyite, “Go Along or Shut Up or you are an insane Racist” dementia.

            I get that you believe “Obama Uber Alles,” but I’m getting pretty damned sick of the idea that Our Young PresidentTM is not to be criticized, EVER. You seriously need to up your meds, or get a tolerance implant.

        • Taylor Marsh October 1, 2012 at 11:07 am #

          Hey jjamele – It simply read to me like ridiculous hyperbole from an Obama fan that was obviously over the top.

        • Cujo359 October 1, 2012 at 3:20 pm #

          I agree with Taylor. It wasn’t personal. It was just pathetic.

          • jjamele October 1, 2012 at 3:45 pm #

            “If left up to the likes of you blacks would still be slaves, women still wouldn’t be able to vote and gays would still be in the closet! That’s right just sit on your ass while others do the work!”

            –Solo, ON THIS THREAD FOR CHRIST’S SAKE!

            Solo: “go ahead, twist my words!”

            Solo’s words don’t need to be twisted. He’s pretty damned blatant about it. If you criticize the President, you must pine for the days of slavery, women barefoot and pregnant, and persecution of gays.

            I have a personal rule about posting on blogs: when I’m viciously attacked and the Administrator shrugs it off, I move on. Good luck with your site, Taylor. Enjoy Solo’s special brand of McCarthyism, I’m sure you’ll be getting plenty of it in the months and years to come.

  5. Cujo359 September 30, 2012 at 5:58 pm #

    Chances are even slimmer that I’ll be watching the debates. Given how nonsensical the discussions are likely to be, I think my mental health will be the better for it.

  6. mjsmith October 1, 2012 at 9:04 am #

    Romney did an excellent job debating the other GOP candidates during the pimary. Romney, as the front runner was attacked by all of the other candidates on the stage, He had an off night during a few of the debates. Sometimes it felt that there was a Republican primary candidate debate two or three times a week. What I do know about the Presidential debate this Wednesday is that no matter what I see or listen to on Wednesday, on Thursday morning I will be seeing analysis of a completely different debate and reports of something other than what happenedthe night before. Romeny could soundly whip Obama and I will here something completely different happened the following mornig. The largest mistake I see the Obama Machine making right already claiming victory and acting as if President Obama had already been re-election. I see Team Romney just taking attacks against Mitt Romney going on challenged. In politics, when you get hit, you hit right back. Taking all these hits on the chin and not responding to them anf hitting right back may end up costing Romney the election. I wonder why there are not more Presidential candidates allowed into the Presidential Debate. If a candidate is on the balot in over 40 states, they should be on the debate.

    • angels81 October 1, 2012 at 9:24 am #

      Romney did an excellent job debating the other GOP candidates. Wow! that’s really not saying much considering the low hanging fruit he was debating against. The last time he debated a democrat in a one on one debate was against Kennedy, and that worked out really well for Romney. I hear he’s working on his zingers for the first debate. Maybe he can offer Obama a $10,000 bet seeing as that worked so well for him last time.

      • mjsmith October 1, 2012 at 10:04 am #

        Here is a clip from the Romney Kennedy debate where Romney slams the drunk driving murderer on health care reform. He tried hardtonail Romney and fails every time. Romney fires right back at every “zinger” Ted Kennedy throws his way.

        • angels81 October 1, 2012 at 10:14 am #

          Yes, Romney did a wonderful job against Kennedy, that’s why he went on to beat Kennedy in the election… Oh wait! that’s right, he lost in a landslide.

  7. mjsmith October 1, 2012 at 10:51 am #

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xn0GYg1PjUY

    Here is the link. By the way, it seems like most of the peoplehere agree with everything Mitt Romney has to say in this clip.

    • angels81 October 1, 2012 at 11:05 am #

      The problem with the empty suit is , nobody believed him. They all knew him for what he really was, a born liar. The man changes his mind faster then you can change your socks. Tell me what Romney stands for? Is he pro-life or pro-choice? Is he for equal pay for women or not? Does he support the Ryan budget or not? Is he for more tax breaks for the rich or not? Is he for vouchers for medicare or isn’t he? He’s been on both sides of all these issues almost every other day.

      People have no clue which Romney they will be seeing from one day to another, it is the reason he lost to Kennedy in a landslide, and its the reason why his poll numbers have fell off the cliff into what looks like right now as a another landslide loss for the Lord of the Manor.

      • mjsmith October 1, 2012 at 3:19 pm #

        I am talking about Romney in theupcoming debate. Thisis also know as the topic of this conversation.

        • secularhumanizinevoluter October 1, 2012 at 5:34 pm #

          No, no you are not. If you were you would be referencing Mitt da Twi’s stands on things like reproductive rights….he’s against them now but was for them before. Healthcare, he was for it before…now he’s against it….the military…who the hell knows he sure as hell didn’t mention them at the convention. But he is FOR lowering taxes on himself and the rest of the 1%.
          COME TO THINK OF IT …..NOW I KNOW WHY!

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