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NEXT TUESDAY is a very big election day for Wisconsin and for Democrats.
Ed Schultz posited last night on his show that maybe he was “too much of a jock strap,” maybe he likes the “fight too much,” but that Pres. Obama needs to get to Wisconsin and drum up the base. Stephanie Cutter was on with Chuck Todd on Wednesday saying it really wasn’t necessary. The calculus by team Obama seems counterproductive, either that or it’s nakedly self-involved, either afraid to do harm, which I don’t see, or get tarnished with a loss. But maybe I’m missing something on this one.
Meanwhile, former Pres. Bill Clinton just might make a stop in Wisconsin, a state he won twice.
Polling shows the race down to the wire, though the Marquette poll, which John Nichols said leans right, has Walker up by 7. Celinda Lake’s polling group has the race deadlocked at 49, which Schultz reported last night.
What happens if this story takes hold before Tuesday?
The concern of the Democrat I spoke with is that the the members news media that have seen the “smoking gun” emails in question between John Hiller and Scott Walker are reluctant to publish the story, possibly to avoid negative publicity for Gov. Walker prior to the June 5 recall election, as the release of the emails likely would cast Gov. Walker’s involvement in allegations of “pay to play” real estate deals involving Milwaukee County in a much different light.
This feels like the Scott Brown win in MA to me only with worse consequences. It does not surprise me because the President has never been a party leader and he has no affinity with unions,particulary teachers unions. In fact, his administration is actively doing much to undermine them.
Really the unions need to find a different place, they get nothing from being part of the Democratic coalition. on a national level. Remember Donna Brazil made that clear the last time around, bragging that they did not need blue collar workers they had formed an all new coalition of independents and Obama Republicans and creatives.You know all those people who don’t find Mitt so bad.
I guess they forgot that Parties need worker bees and a soul.
Too true, I’m afraid. Though Wisconsin Democrats don’t seem to have helped themselves by nominating someone who isn’t all that labor-friendly. Given that this recall started over a labor dispute, you’d think they actually want to lose this thing.
Why do I think that the Democrats want to lose? In a special recall election, where voter turnout is key, they nominated someone who isn’t going to inspire confidence that putting him in office will fix the problem. From the Marquette poll’s summary:
So, they rile up the opposition, but just assume their own people will show up to vote, because what choice do they have? Sound like a familiar strategy? It should.
Democrats: just like the Republicans, except they’re OK about losing if they can cash in afterwards.
Who is John Nichols and where did he learn to read poll bias?
Poll crosstabs say he does not know what he is talking about………
R 28% D 33% I 38%
W/ heavy leaners, R 43% D 48% True I 8%
The poll is D+5 and STILL shows Walker winning. Reasons are Indies break for Walker, D’s aren’t solid for Barrett (81% ceding 16% to Walker).
The problem with the poll as i understand it is that it only has something like 2% young voters where they have been no less than 10% in the previous two elections. This poll has been consistently an “outlier” compared to all the other polls out there.
I report, you decide……..
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/results-data/
the 18-29 age group comprised 16% of the polled population, but, yes, was less than the other 3 defined age groupings.
However, note to the question asked if you plan to vote in the recall election. The 18-29 age group answered 59.1% in the affirmative, whereas the lowest percentage commitment of the other three groups was 83%.
It would take a bit of math to determine if the underweighting in sample size is appropriately offset by the lower turnout percentage, but on the surface, there would definitely need to be some underweighting of this group to accurately forecast election day results.
Did you actually download the cross tabs or are you just repeating something you read somewhere else?
If Walker is doing great then why hasn’t he released his internal polls? Barrett released his. This poll has been consistently an outlier when compared with all the other polls which show it as very, very tight.
Sheesh……I provided the link to the cross tabs, now you want a certification of my use of same?……..(mutters to himself….no wonder the Rs have no respect for these guys as opponents.)
Hey, call this poll an outlyer all you want…….no skin off my back…….but these guys have been consistently conducting every month and provide all the internal data each time. Hard to get it consistentlywrong every time unless you are intentionally corrupt
On the surface, much more appearance of credibility than some guy who just spouts off……”it leans right”
One of the best things the unions could have done is dump the democrats and hook up with the Green party. The green’s grassroots organization and the unions money could have made a difference. Instead they drop their pants for the same party that has screwed them over and over again. So much for tough talking Trumka. If re-elected, Obama will wipe his feet on tough guy’s face and keep on walking.
Obama has never been all that friendly to organized labor, and Lake Lady is right–he’s hostile to teachers as a work force. Stupid Ed Schultz should have known this but he was too busy buying the narrative that Obama was the most “progressive” Democrat.
Schultz will be absolving Obama of any blame, and heaping abuse on Bill Clinton for “sticking his nose in,” roughly ten minutes after the race is called for Walker. Set your watches by it.
The Democrats never learn. Why would Ed expect Obama to go anywhere near Wisconsin? He still thinks its best to ignore his base and woo his precious Independents.
Consequently he ignores the suffering of the middle classes. Just as he is silent about the disenfranchisement of thousands of Blacks and Latinos in Florida and other states. Pretty words, that is all.
Let this guy explain it: http://tinyurl.com/298o4vt
Ramsgate;
What a bunch of extreme Progressive BS. Obama cut middle class taxes and cut the FICA tax withholding rate giving typical middle class tax payers between1,000 to 2,000 extra cash in their pockets. How is that doing nothing for the middle class.
In your chablet sipping world he should just give all middle class homeowners behind in their mortgages or under water the deeds to their homes and you wonder why Progressives never win national elections. You need to stop looking down your nose at blue collar families many of whom are pro-life, NRA member Democrate.
and cut the FICA tax withholding rate giving typical middle class tax payers between1,000 to 2,000 extra cash in their pockets. How is that doing nothing for the middle class.
and therefore adding ammunition to the argument for cutting Social Security down the line…what a boon for the middle class!
You need to stop looking down your nose at blue collar families many of whom are pro-life, NRA member Democrate
just so much weirdness there!
just as he argued successfully for the nullification of votes in the primary that gave him the 08 nomination
Every single poll taken, including the left leaning Daily Kos poll shows Walker beating back the recall:
It’s not surprising since the recall was taken over by the professional left and the unions. Typical Democrats aren’t preofessional lefties despite what you might think. In head to head matchups of Obama v Romney it’s a different story Wisconsin is a solid Obama state:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html
Obama is not going to the George MCGovern that you so desperately want him to be and neither is Hillary Clinton.
If it’s a day ending in the letter “y,” we can count on RAJensen to come in here and link to a RealClearPolitics poll. Thanks for never, ever letting us down in your lapdog, groveling worship of this President and undying contempt for anyone who dares question him.
No, but Obama does seem to channel Maureen McGovern quite a bit.