From a new New York Times/CBS poll:
At a time of rising gas prices, heightened talk of war with Iran and setbacks in Afghanistan, Mr. Obama’s approval rating dropped substantially in recent weeks, the poll found, with 41 percent of respondents expressing approval of the job he is doing and 47 percent saying they disapprove — a dangerous position for any incumbent seeking re-election.
Rising gas prices make people feel insecure about everything. People drive. A lot. All of a sudden the money you had for going out is eaten up and it pisses you off. Who are you going to blame? Vilifying Congress is so 2010.
There’s a reason the New York Times “threw up its hands,” which was Jonathan Chait’s appraisal, on trying to explain Obama’s poll drop to his lowest approval ever. Chait goes on to say that he believes the good jobs report and the narrative that things are getting better turned people sour, which is backed up by recent Democracy Corps polling that’s remarkable.
Claiming that “America is back” is by far the weakest operative message and produces disastrous results. It is weaker than even the weakest Republican message and is 10 points weaker in intensity than either Republican message. Overall, less than a third of all voters said this message makes them more likely to support the President and a third said this message made them less likely to support Barack Obama. Alarmingly, this message barely receives majority support among self-identified Democrats—and even less support among all other groups. Less than a quarter of independents say this message would make them more likely to support the President and no independents said that it would make them much more likely to support him.
We live in explosive times. People are touchy.
The bookend is Jeff Foxworthy playing sidekick to Mitt Romney helping bridge the stiff man gap in the south. Right now polls show Romney in a good position, as Jonathan Martin writes today, but I don’t think anybody has a clue.
Newt Gingrich railing about $2.50/gallon gas hit the zeitgeist among the fringe, but it’s unrelated to facts.
The Washington Post today, quoting experts on who’s to blame for gas prices:
Perhaps no politician has done more to put the onus on the president than Gingrich, who says he has a plan to reduce gas prices to $2.50 a gallon and offset the loss of output that might result from an attack on Iran, which exports about 2.5 million barrels of crude oil per day.
“There’s no way we could increase production that much,” said Verrastro of the CSIS. “But the facts be damned. It’s election season.”
Contrary to the right’s contention, Obama’s contraceptive mandate was a critical component to helping galvanize liberals and progressives, as well as some independents, because people are looking for reasons to support Pres. Obama. It’s been a difficult first term to watch on many levels.
Caution is required, as I wrote just yesterday:
Voters are fickle and people will start moving on how they feel, which is what voting is about. [...] … …no one should kid themselves. Women aren’t one-issue voters, with economic issues driving their reality more than ever before.
Pres. Obama still has the edge, if for no other reason than Mitt Romney is a horrendous political performer, with video to prove it, Rick Santorum is an extremist wacko, and Newt Gingrich… well, he’s a joke and his campaign is on life support even if he can’t face it.
Being honest takes humility.
Approving the Keystone XL pipeline, rejected by Obama with its current route and highlighted by Gingrich on Monday as a useful move, would not add to current oil supplies; it would only add to the excess pipeline capacity from Canada that is expected to last until 2016. – The Washington Post
That’s why the polls are all over the place, because watching the political news would make anybody insecure.
These people are running our country?
The cable yakkers need a rest and most pundits are running on fumes, left to grunt “mmhh,” “yeah,” just hoping to last to the break. They’ve got nothing left to add. Really.
We just need to find another word besides volatile.
But it’s why Obama needs his Super PACs, while telling Sen. Reid his members are on their own.
There’s nothing but ugly in sight.
“We live in explosive times. People are touchy.”
And, people are scared. For millions, things are not getting better. In fact for large numbers, they continue getting worse. Un- and under-employment; foreclosures; millions still without access to health care; state, county and city services cut; public school systems struggling with less state funding, doing everything from cutting positions to considering charging a fee for school bus rides. And, as you say, high gas prices, which for some take big chunks of income needed to pay basic monthly bills. The Electeds and Wannabe’s should all be worried. Well, I guess they are, but I doubt many of them are worried for the same reasons millions of their constituents are … little things like feeding your family, keeping the lights on.
The thing that some in DC seem to be so puzzled about is what I was saying when I wrote that All Economics Is Local. And yes, it’s part of my “Progressive Idiocy” series. Anyone who looks at these lackluster employment reports, particularly when they are the best we’ve seen in years, and yet can’t understand why we’re not doing cartwheels out here in the land beyond DC really needs to get out more. Either that, or they can take a shortcut to wisdom by reading this report by the EPI.
It doesn’t matter if everyone’s employed in DC, or that the usual measure of unemployment has dropped below a certain level. The real issue is how much pain there still is out here, and whether we can realistically see an end to it. Right now, the answers to those two questions are “lots, and growing”, and “no”.
That’s the problem.
Anyone watching CNN?
Alabama using inmates doing “hard labor” to help w/ ballots. Snark is heavy on Twitter.
Watching C-SPAN’s coverage w/ Politico team. It’s terrific.
All good points, Cujo359. Thanks Joyce, it’s the bubble syndrome.
Alabama and Mississippi look kinda like three-way ties (Santorum won both, by a few percent). Just found CSPAN online, BTW. Listening now to some caller who thinks that Santorum is the only one who understands reality. Reality seems to be a variable concept…
Good grief, is this typical of call-in opinions? There is a woman on who thinks that no “left wingers” criticize President Obama. I feel like providing her a few links…
Politico went off the air at 10:30 p.m. It was a lot of fun to watch.
Maybe it’s why Politico ran the story “How much do voters know?”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73947.html
With all the crazy GOP primary happening right now, The Obama Administration still should not think this election is a cake walk.As far as Romney, how sad that he outspent Rick Santorum 2 to 1 and still lost and came in third in both states. Thats pretty weak. I just don’t think he is going to do well in the south at all, he already lost a bunch of southern states and I expect he will lose more. He also did bad in the middle of the country also. If Newt Gingrich gets out, Romney will really be in a fight.
You can be sure the Republicans in the south don’t want a black man as president and they want a mormon even less. It is simple.
Gas prices. They go up and they go down. Whoever is president gets the blame. That’s just the way it is.
Also, something I’ve been stuck on for awhile. Housing. Just google forclosures and get the latest headlines:
1 in 4 homes sold were foreclosures
New foreclosures up 28% in Jan 2012
Foreclosures sales ramp up post robo-signing
With red tape gone foreclosures up
etc. etc.
This summer next to the campaign yards signs will be a lot of for sale/bank owned/foreclosure signs.