Art offers his perspective as a movement progressive activist.
The loss of Ilya Sheyman, a 25 year old charismatic progressive community organizer in Illinois’ 10th congressional district primary to Brad Schneider, the establishment favorite backed by Rep. Hoyer, has heads shaking. Schneider raised the ire of progressives due to his “centrist” stands, his support for some Republicans including Republican Mark Kirk (now a senator), and his business ties.
Sheyman had outraised Schneider, had a volunteer army of 600, and seemed poised to win as PPP had him up by 9 points just days before the primary. Instead he lost by a large margin, leaving progressives wondering what do now.
In the end it was turnout. Sheyman’s camp thought 60,000 would turnout in this district, instead only 32,000 did. The young college age progressives he courted stayed home. This despite a massive mailing, phone and internet outreach campaign.
So what are the lessons here? What went wrong that progressive groups can try to prevent in the future? Some notions have appeared.
One correction that must be made that appears clearest to many is that grassroots ground operations must be in place much earlier, not just a few weeks prior to the election. From Talking Points Memo:
National progressive groups are really good at raising money online and creating national buzz. In the wake of IL-10 — where turnout was very low, suggesting voters were either turned off by the negative primary and/or the progressive base was not sufficiently roused with a get-out-the-vote program — some national progressives are calling for a greater focus on the mechanics of winning elections on the ground.
“When there’s long-term infrastructure and there are people on the ground a lot longer than two weeks or three weeks that we see great change and organizers can get the job done,” DFA spokesperson Linsey Pecikonis told TPM. “That’s not to say that wasn’t going on in Ilya’s race … but in terms of what we’ve learned, I would say the progressive moment has to rally around its candidates a little earlier and start building that infrastructure.”
As noted in the Washington Post, this is yet another major outing by progressive organizations only to fail at the election. In 2010 it was Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter who narrowly lost to incumbent Sen. Lincoln.
Another lesson is not believing in your own hype created by polls and blogs and instead focus solely on the ground and vote turnout.
PCCC’s Adam Green, which was deeply involved in the race for Sheyman, said…
that “[i]t was predicted that as many as 60,000 people would vote.” He referred questions on turnout to the campaign. A person involved with the IE, in defending the high estimate, pointed to 2010 turnout figures for a district that was similar to the 10th before it was redrawn.
But in 2010, heated Senate and gubernatorial campaigns drew more voters to the polls. With no significant statewide race on the 2012 ballot, it would make sense to expect — as the Schneider campaign says it did — that turnout would be lower.
Then you have the issue of negative advertising that to voters can feel as over the top type stuff. Sheyman sent mailers with quotes from Howard Dean. There was a big fallout with several respected local dems endorsing Schneider:
One attack that reflected particularly poorly on Sheyman was an attempt to paint Schneider as a conservative Blue Dog Democrat. Howard Dean said Schneider was “basically a Blue Dog, a Republican.” Schneider’s campaign hit back that he didn’t identify with the Blue Dogs and was never endorsed by them.
“Ilya’s negative advertising is full of overt distortions,” state Rep. Karen May (D-Highland Park) told Deerfield Patch just a week before the election. “I’ve decided to vote for Brad Schneider. What Ilya’s doing is not good for us (Democrats). I’m not alone. I’m hearing this from my friends.”
Some IL-10 progressives did not back either candidate, claiming Sheyman sold out progressives in the healthcare fight. Sheyman was Moveon’s big activist mobilizer. He has said he backs single payer, but some progressives laughed at the notion of Sheyman fighting for their interests against the establishment.
Ellen Gill has a blog in IL-10 and wrote this:
…Ilya, the “great progressive” did something very similar when he was at Moveon. While many good people worked for real health care reform, Medicare for All, as Medicare was always intended to be, not only did Moveon join with OFA and HCAN to drop the public option, the organization actively worked against single payer and repeatedly attacked its advocates.
… I blame him for his role in it. He’s taking credit for all of Moveon’s actions on health care reform. He’s said that he personally organized 5 million people. He never says that he questioned his Moveon bosses or ever took a stand against the group’s position. It seems to me that if he can take the credit for Moveon’s entire health care reform effort, he has to take credit for all of it, the good, the bad and the ugly.
Ellen Gill’s relative David Gill, an anti-corporate progressive, beat the establishment choice by 153 votes in the 13th congressional district and Gill had only PDA behind him. How did he pull this off and not Sheyman? Howie klein wieghs in here.
This whole episode is worrisome for the races ahead: PCCC and others are working to help State Sen. Griego in New Mexico win the Dem primary against a Blue Dog; in California, Norman Solomon is running to take Lynn Woolsey’s seat; and in Washington, Darcey Burner, in a competitive field to win the Dem primary and finally make it into Congress. And let’s not forget Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, and in near term, the Wisconsin recalls in June.
Voters in IL-10 had the chance to send a young, attention grabbing, progressive fighter to Congress, but stayed home instead.
There is alot to think about here. Interesting how Dr Gill-a true progressive, won his primary by 153 votes i n next door/lean dem IL dist 17 w/out alot of funding and support of PDA. Gill has run before though. Is that the diff b/w him and Sheyman? Name id? I wan to hear your thoughts bc very soon we have other such contests- ie in CA w/Solomon, in AZ w/Wenona, in MA w/Warren and the WI recals in June…
What I always wonder after things like this, and is seldom answered with anything beyond conjecture, is why the people they expected to show up at the polls didn’t. What were their opinions on issues? What reasons, if any, do they give for not showing up? If the consensus among them was that Sheyman wasn’t likely to do anything about what they’re interested in, then that’s what Sheyman (or the next “progressive” candidate) needs to work on.
GOTV only works when people see a point in getting out to vote.
“GOTV only works when people see a point in getting out to vote.”-
I think Art has pointed out a number of what were likely contributing factors. So have you, and I think what you point out shows up in many elections.
I know, my usual rant, but … we need more than two choices, more than two parties trading places.
I think I can boil my advice down to this: If you’re a politician, particularly a young one, and you’re in it for the long haul, then save some money to conduct an after-election poll to discover the differences between potential supporters who came out to vote for you, and potential supporters who didn’t. That will tell you far more than any conjectures we can make here.
Yea see yes that blogger Gill had he rpoint on Moveon and hcr- and yes some might have shared her view- but still. Clearly a huge lack of gotv here and errors made. Sheyman is 25 and liberal. I would have voted for him over Schnieder for sure. Again- Dr David Gil, a true prog, won hisprimary next door by 153 votes! Without help from DFA etc. How? Hmmm
“Attention grabbing”? Absolutely.
“Progressive fighter”? Hardly. Unless you count being a foot soldier in the war against single payer and for bailing out the health insurance companies with the mandate, conducted by Obama’s faction in the Democratic party.
Hey- foudn this out- 2 other progs in the primary got 14pct of the vote. Sheyman lost by 8. W.out instant runoff he got screwed. Another factor I didnt see at 1st
http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/sheyman-comes-second-illinois-democra
Art;
You are under the delusion that very Progressive people represent anything other than a small minority, less than 10% of the electorate describe self-describe themselves as very progressive, half the number that describe themselves as very conservative. The greatest domestic legislative accomplishments were enacted by moderate Democrats who had to compromise with either Republicans or moderate Democrats and when they had large majorities that was able to block Republican filibusters. FDR was only able to pass FDRCare (social security) by compromising with Jim Crow Democratic senators who did not want the social security act of 1935 to include African-Americans. The final passage only occurred when the act excluded domestic workers, agriculutural workers and even Pullman porters from participating in social security. Without the compromise social security would have been dead for decades and FDR understood that social security would be amended over time to remove those aggregious regulations.
One of the legislative accomplishments by JFK was lowering the income tax rates of wealthy people, to stimulate the economy, a move opposed by very Progressive Democrats.
LBJcare(Medicare and Medicaid) was enacted over the objections of Republicans and the AMA because he had filibuster proof majorities in the Senate with his landslide 1964 victory.
Obama had unanimous oppostion by the Republican senate to Obamacare (affordable health care act) but had to overcome oppostion by a handful of conservative Democrats who all had ties to the insurance or pharmaceutical industry and vehemently opposed to any public option. Obama, who has always supported a public option, had to remove a public option from the affordable health care act to prevent a filibuster by senate Republicans and four Democratic senators who would have stopped passage of any health care legislation. Without removing a public option from the final legislation health care reform would have died just as it did in the Clinton adminstrations failed attempt at universal healthcare.
Very Progressive Democrats never win the White House eg Adlai Stevenson, Hubert Humphry George McGovern and John Kerry.Very Progerssive Democrats can only win in very blue states or Congressional districts and will never make up a majority of the Congress or the Senate.