President Barack Obama is briefed by Denis McDonough, Deputy National Security Advisor, and others in the Oval Office, March 29, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)
From Foreign Policy, Mark Perry breaking the story:
[...] In particular, four senior diplomats and military intelligence officers say that the United States has concluded that Israel has recently been granted access to airbases on Iran’s northern border. To do what, exactly, is not clear. “The Israelis have bought an airfield,” a senior administration official told me in early February, “and the airfield is called Azerbaijan.”
Senior U.S. intelligence officials are increasingly concerned that Israel’s military expansion into Azerbaijan complicates U.S. efforts to dampen Israeli-Iranian tensions, according to the sources. Military planners, I was told, must now plan not only for a war scenario that includes the Persian Gulf — but one that could include the Caucasus. The burgeoning Israel-Azerbaijan relationship has also become a flashpoint in both countries’ relationship with Turkey, a regional heavyweight that fears the economic and political fallout of a war with Iran. Turkey’s most senior government officials have raised their concerns with their U.S. counterparts, as well as with the Azeris, the sources said.
The Israeli embassy in Washington, the Israel Defense Forces, and the Mossad were contacted for comment, as well as the Azeri embassy to the United States, but none was forthcoming.
Haaretz has a report pointing out problems with the supposition of Israel hitting Iran from Azerbaijan.
While this is an intriguing possibility, a cursory glance at a map hardly bears it out. A range of American military experts claim that Azeri airfields would be invaluable for Israel as it would solve some of the fuel/range issues of a 2000+km strike, they fail to address the problem of where the Israeli warplanes can fly to once they have refueled in Azerbaijan. There is no friendly route to fly back to Israel, except over Iranian or Turkish territory, hardly appealing alternatives once an attack has already been carried out and both countries will be on highest alert. Another weak point in that theory is that according to a “senior U.S. military intelligence officer” this would enable the Israeli air-force not to rely on its “pretty minimal” aerial refueling capabilities with which U.S. “military planners… are not impressed.”
This is simply nuts.
Why is it nuts?
Here’s an example. We’re apparently at the “Thor missile” stage right now. It may be more than just a sense of irony that has Turkey so upset about this.
Yes, I’m sure there will be stern public warnings to Israel that are then retracted.
What’s the problem? We create a no-fly zone over Azerbaijan using unmanned predator drones and if the Israels attempt to build an airbase there, we bomb it so it never becomes an operational staging ground. If this action prevents WW III from beginning it’s worth it.
Are you serious TPAZ?
Do you have any idea of what the political blow-back from such an action would be? We invade the airspace of a sovereign nation to take out Israeli assets stationed there? Holy guacamole that would be one huge s**t storm! And pray tell why would Turkey let us set up those drones in the first place? Come on TPAZ think at least logistically, those drones have to be supplied from inside Turkey, they don’t run on magic fairy dust.
And a no-fly over Azerbaijan, under what convening authority are you setting this up? Who are our foreign partners? And pray tell how is AIPAC not raising holy hell about such a move wherever and whenever it can?
And lets not forget what kind of precedent this sets up, and how bad that precedent would be to our national interest down the line. You are aware that we have over one hundred foreign bases and facilities across the globe? Well you just made them legitimate targets for any adversary that we encounter.
Bad idea TPAZ, really, really, really bad idea.