Love him or hate him, Erick Erickson has captured the Republican zeitgeist of the season.
As you wake up this morning, the tea party has failed because it has surrendered itself into the hands of Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich — all of whom would use government to suit allegedly conservative ends, which is not conservative in and of itself. But by God Mitt Romney may now get the political beating everyone has been expecting him to get. Newt Gingrich has nothing left to lose. He can go Newtlear against the guy he sees as having destroyed him. Newt Gingrich can unleash unmitigated hell against MItt Romney and just like the attacks on Newt were true, they’ll all be true about MItt Romney too.
His analysis that Rick Perry’s policy people were good, while Santorum’s retail politics didn’t prove squat, reveals how mediocre a political analyst he is, but he’s still got the beat of the right’s pulse. His point about “Newtlear,” which I call Newtmageddon, however, is important, because it’s not just about Gingrich versus Mitt. Faith leaders are on the warpath, too, joining the Rush Limbaugh crowd, trying to prevent another McCain type nomination; that he will endorse Romney today is the kiss of death to conservatives.
Jonathan Martin has an interesting report that’s representative of the battle gone wild on the right:
A group of movement conservatives has called an emergency meeting in Texas next weekend to find a “consensus” Republican presidential hopeful, POLITICO has learned.
“You and your spouse are cordially invited to a private meeting with national conservative leaders of faith at the ranch of Paul and Nancy Pressler near Brenham, Texas, with the purpose of attempting to unite and to come to a consensus on which Republican presidential candidate or candidates to support, or which not to support,” read an invitation that is making its way into in-boxes Wednesday morning.
Call it the Huckabee hangover.
After having their dream candidate in 2008, conservative faith leaders in 2012 are faced with several candidates representing their interests. Question is how to attempt to winnow a field of social conservative candidates and push politicians out who just won’t quit.
Even Rick Perry, who basically delivered a concession speech last night, is now headed back to New Hampshire now that Bachmann has bowed out. But Perry performing so poorly in Iowa, even after going full tilt on his religiosity, proves not even some Republicans get evangelical voters. From the Wall Street Journal in early December:
Mr. Perry is making an aggressive pitch to unify the evangelical bloc, pouring his sizable financial war chest into TV ads that declare he is “not ashamed” to be a Christian, that criticize gays serving openly in the military, and that vow to end President Obama’s “war on religion.”
[...] Yet the flaw in this strategy is assuming that cultural conservatives have somehow missed the past three years of economic turmoil and Obama overreach, and intend to vote a religious line. What it misses is that social conservatives have seen a lot since 2008, and that this time they see the stakes as too high to take another Mike Huckabee flyer. They aren’t likely to be unified this time around.
By most estimates, evangelicals make up between 50% and 60% of the conservative primary electorate. Yet a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll found that some 70% of likely caucus-goers list the economy as their top issue; 14% listed social issues. Or how about this: A recent Public Policy Polling survey found more voters (42%) had “major concerns” with a candidate who supported an individual health mandate than they did (34%) a candidate who had cheated on a spouse.
The knee jerk analysis on evangelical voters revolves around Mr. Romney’s Mormonism, which matters to some, but it’s hardly that simple. Nothing is today, with the Democratic and Republican parties hemorrhaging members and politics on the grass roots level fracturing all monoliths.
Ralph Reed, yes the former mastermind that was taken down by his Abramoff and Tom Delay connections, is back and CNN’s rehabilitating him. From Reed today:
Here’s how the evangelical vote broke down: 32% for Santorum, 18% for Ron Paul, 13% each for Romney, Gingrich and Rick Perry, 6% for Michele Bachmann and 1% for Jon Huntsman.
…So when commentators prognosticate about the “evangelical vote,” we might want to ask them, “which one?” For there are there are many evangelical votes, many candidates who win their support, and a multitude of motivations for their engagement…
Many social conservatives likely don’t believe a true conservative would ever be elected governor of Massachusetts.
It’s a good point and also why, regardless of the lack of enthusiasm for Mitt Romney among the right, he remains the candidate Obama reelect is targeting.
perry in? ugh. wonder what santorum does now? he has newt blaster to help. obama made verrry good moe today with cfpb -cordray for sure. and mcconnell is pissed which is always great. odds are its a court fight over this whole pro froma crap reid started yrs ago. shows why santoru would be a good candidate in OH for gop not mitt
Yep, your man, Perry, ain’t gonna give up yet.
Perry reappears just as Equality Texas sent out a mailing that opened with this: “The good news is that Texas Governor Rick Perry will not be the next president of the United States. Governor Perry’s homophobic pandering did not resonate with Iowa voters just as it does not resonate in Texas.” I think they’re still accurate, that he won’t be president.
The evangelicals, social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, the rural populace, the Tea Party folks, Libertarians etc.. Where do these people go? What do they do if their guy isn’t the nominee? Their options are limited.
For people like Santorum, Gingrich, Perry; their supporters have two choices: vote for the Republican candidate or stay home. For Paul supporters the same; but probably, stay home before voting Repubican they’re pretty die hard; unless he goes third party (highly doubtful).
But, what about people who vote for Romney? One piece of info from the entrance poll was the suburban voters. Romney took 34% of them and tied Paul with 24% percent of urban vote. People who voted for him can also either stay home, vote for the Republican candidate, or if need be (based on their own self interests) vote for Obama.
The demographics of the people that vote for Romney in future contests, will be interesting to follow.
If Newt goes after Romney he is insuring that the Reps lose. Maybe he has been paid off to do this–wouldn’t surprise me at all. The guy is such a disgusting weasel.
I think that Romney is the only one who can really challenge Obama because I can see Dems who are unhappy with Obama voting for Romney. I cannot see any Dems voting for Santorum (the most corrupt of the candidates–see this report) or Newt or any of the others. As for the many independents out there, they also could decide to vote for Romney just to change things up a little. And people from either major party could just decide to stay home. As for the evangelicals, they are not the majority of this country or even the majority of the Republican party.
IMO the surface debate on the right between the forces of Mitt versus evangelicals is a side show. The left should focus on the true threat from the theocratic right on our personal freedoms and our society as a whole. If those on the left think that Santorum, Perry, Mitt, and the rest are too extreme to be electable – DON’T!
Taylor was a small child when Ronald Reagan ran for President and don’t remember just how radical his views were in the 1979. I remember that election well. We all on the left thought there was no way in hell America would swallow Reagan’s extremist bullshit. Furthermore, Reagan kicked off his campaign in Philadelphia, Mississippi, the location where three civil rights workers who were registering African-Americans to vote during the civil rights movement were murdered. Dog whistles, anyone? We laughed and remarked that anyone this cynical and insensitive to race and racism would be taken seriously in a national election.
Why did fear and hatred work in 1980 amongst white voters? Domestically, the fictional theory of reverse-discrimination was all the rage on the right, and internationally, Muslims and Islam had firmly replaced Communism as America’s number one enemy.
Why will it work this time? This country knows that the white majority is shrinking. We will become a minority majority nation as early as 2030. The 2012 election may be the last one whereby the right can scare enough white voters, just like Reagan did, into voting against its and America’s own interest by supporting and electing Santorum. If the level of fear of the other is high enough it can happen; yes it can.
I’ve seen this movie before and I don’t like the way it ends.
Guyski…….I agree with you. The idea that the majority of socons would ultimately prefer Obama win over Romney by boycotting is as silly as suggesting most firebaggers will ultimately not get up and vote for Obama. whether it is Erik eriksen or Jane hamsher, they blow more air than command action.