Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), a prominent Jewish congressman, said the Jewish vote is a concern for his party. “I think Jewish voters will be Democratic and be for Obama in 2012, especially if you get a Republican candidate like [Texas] Gov. [Rick] Perry,” he said. “But there’s no question the Jewish community is much more bipartisan than it has been in previous years. There are Jews who are trending toward the Republican Party, some of it because of their misunderstanding of Obama’s policies in the Middle East, and some of it, quite frankly, for economic reasons. They feel they want to protect their wealth, which is why a lot of well-off voters vote for Republicans.” – - Dems’ peril in New York special election sparks fear for Nov. ’12
Politico’s Alex Isenstadt has a good piece on what could make the difference in NY-9 today. It won’t be Weprin, that’s for sure.
But all of that might not matter on Tuesday, when the powerful Queens County Democratic Party machine — overseen by Rep. Joe Crowley — is planning to kick into high gear. By the time polls open, Weprin’s campaign estimates it will have contacted more than 200,000 voters. On Tuesday, an estimated 1,000 volunteers and get-out-the-vote workers will be knocking on doors, handing out literature outside subway stations and bus stops and offering senior citizens rides to the polls.
The machine will benefit from the helping hand of the Working Families Party, a labor-backed organization regarded for its professional turnout efforts. Few expect the Queens County Republican Party — for years consumed by internal fighting — to be able to seriously compete.
“We’re going to win on the ground, we’re going to beat them on the ground,” New York City Councilman Mark Weprin, the candidate’s brother, told POLITICO. “It will make a huge difference.”
Bill O’Reilly, a Turner strategist and veteran of New York City campaigns, conceded that Republicans can’t match the Democratic ground game. “Not a chance,” he said.
There is also a race in Nevada that Team Obama is watching and for good reasons. If Romney is the nominee, which I still believe is the safe bet, he’s got a decent base in that state, including the Mormon community, with today’s special election possibly holding clues to Obama’s chances in taking Nevada, a state he’s counting on. If I were to bet, I’d say Obama’s chances in the silver state are at best 50-50, but tonight could tell us more.
Few expect Marshall to prevail in Nevada, but a weak showing in Washoe County, the district’s most populous, could be a devastating precursor for Democrats. Obama is counting on Nevada as part of his path to reelection, and Washoe County, which includes Reno, is key to that strategy. Though Obama lost the 2nd District in 2008 and Sen. Harry Reid lost it in 2010, they both won Washoe County. – 5 things to watch in Nevada
Whatever happens in New York and Nevada, one thing is surfacing that should trouble Democrats and progressives. Pres. Obama today is considered a liability; so much so that leading Democratic stalwarts are speaking publicly about it. It’s the kiss of political death, which they know but don’t care, because they want the warning in the water.
A Democratic strategist said Obama has become such a problem for down-ticket Democrats that he was wary of encouraging candidates to run next year. “I’m warning my clients — ‘Don’t run in 2012.’ I don’t want to see good candidates lose by 12 to 15 points because of the president,” said the strategist.
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