Donald Trump debuts in a first-place tie in Gallup’s latest update of Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination among potential contenders. Trump ties Mike Huckabee at 16%, with Mitt Romney close behind at 13%. Sarah Palin is the only other potential Republican candidate to earn double-digit support. – Huckabee, Trump, Romney Set Pace for 2012 GOP Field
Congress is on recess, so if you hadn’t already noticed it’s not just Easter break, but also poll season. So if you’re still confused about why Donald Trump grabbed on to birtherism see this poll.
Gallup surveyed Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and found Trump and Huckabee tied, with Donald Trump at 21% among moderate-liberals, 13% among conservatives; Huckabee has 13% among moderate-liberals, 18% among conservatives. Trump’s trouble with conservative Republicans or leaning Republican types is that many conservatives listen to talk radio where there’s been a blitz against him. Rush Limbaugh launched Trump before he dove into birtherism, having him on where Trump first spoke about his 25% tariff on Chinese goods and trade most of the interview (which I tweeted about at the time).
However, as you can see above, 19% of moderate to liberal Republicans or Republican-leading Independents have “no opinion” of any of the GOP possible primary candidates, which is the equivalent to none of the above; 10% of conservatives feeling the same way. It’s quite revealing and shows there is room for an alternative candidate campaigning on sane, say a Jon Huntsman, who could counter Trump on China through his experience, but he might rather wait until 2016, too.
The hottest choices on the Republican side will remain un-candidates, because 2012 isn’t the year the hot pols want to run, because though Pres. Obama is definitely beatable, having an open field in 2016 is preferred for Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and even Jeb Bush.
Any smart Republican knows that Obama will be a formidable opponent, with the odds still good he’ll win reelection, because too many people are Democratic Party voter drones who’ll never alter their voting habits no matter what Pres. Obama does.
The birthers’ front man, Donald Trump, caught fire with crazy, but he’s not so stupid as to have embraced Rep. Paul Ryan’s ludicrous economic hallucinations, so even if die hard conservatives find him wanting, his politics of convenience has a ring of possibility amidst a Republican crowd comprised of a bunch of misfit wannabes.
This may have started out as a lark for Donald Trump, and he still may not run, but his continuing presence at the top tier of the unannounced candidate list should be enough for anyone to say what the hell, I’m in. This has become the consensus, the “conventional wisdom.” Against Pres. Obama Trump would become the billionaire underdog.
As for the darling of the 2010 midterms, Sarah Palin, her only hope for 2012 at this point is if Mike Huckabee doesn’t run.