The video is compliments of the RNC press release announcing “November Starts Now”. They’re using Hillary Clinton’s 3:00 a.m. ad to hit Pres. Obama on the BP oil spill. How’s that for re-writing history on what Bush-Cheney did to MMS to allow the groundwork to be laid for the disaster? As for “November Starts Now,” the website is a joke. That says it all.
Meanwhile in New Hampshire… Beyond ego, I have no idea what possessed Sarah Palin to jump into New Hampshire and endorse New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, sweeping her into the “mama grizzly” fold, but it does show naïveté when mixing in a volatile maverick state like New Hampshire. Now, Ayotte may still win, but Palin’s endorsement has changed the dynamic in the race and it’s not all good for Ms. Ayotte.
Republicans like Sarah, but moderates and independents run from her like she’s carrying a political plague.
There’s not much doubt that the shift in the race is all about Ayotte. Hodes’ favorability numbers have seen little change over the last three months. Where 32% of voters saw him positively and 39% negatively in April, now 35% have a favorable opinion of him to 40% with an unfavorable one. But Ayotte’s seen a dramatic decline. Her favorability spread of 34/24 in April was the best we’ve measured for any Republican Senate candidate so far this year but her negatives have risen 15 points since that time while her positives have increased only 2 and she now stands at 36/39.
Most of the movement both in feelings about Ayotte and in the horse race has come with moderate voters. Moderates make up the largest bloc of the New Hampshire electorate at 47%, and Hodes’ lead with them has expanded from just 8 points at 47-39 in April to now 21 points at 51-30. Ayotte’s favorability with them has gone from +5 at 32/27 to -19 at 27/46.
This doesn’t surprise me, as when I think of a possible Palin 2012 run for the Republican nomination, the state I don’t count in her column is New Hampshire. It’s why she’s concentrated on Iowa and South Carolina, with a swing into Michigan on her book tour, though that’s Romney country, so who knows in the end. All speculation at this point, but still.
Nick Baumann of Mother Jones asked “Does Kelly Ayotte Have a Sarah Palin Problem?” last week (h/t David Corn). I don’t know if she does, but it’s clear Sarah Palin’s endorsement comes with stank on it if you’re trying to reel in moderates or independents, something that’s been predicted for quite some time.
On another note, Christine O’Donnell has been endorsed by the Tea Party. O’Donnell is a hard right-winger in the Sarah Palin mold running for U.S. Senate in Delaware. She’s an avowed anti feminist who used to do the talking head circuit years ago and was a favorite among the boys. She was chirpy, cheerful and filled with wingnuttery goodness, which suits her perfectly for the Tea Party crowd. But she’s no Nikki Haley, but then again the boys have John Ensign, so there are pretty politicians filled with hot air on both sides of the gender card.
This post has been updated, the title changed.