BY TAYLOR MARSH
graphic by TM.com reader esand
It starts tomorrow at 6:30 a.m. CNN.com will stream it live.
As I told a Boston Globe reporter yesterday, the bottom line is count the votes. I simply find it impossible to comprehend that the Democratic Party is going to stand for the disenfranchisement of voters. That is incomprehensible to me.
Obviously, there’s lots of talk about what could happen tomorrow. The New York Times has a Q & A up to explain a few things to people. A post touting the “Briarpatch” strategy is getting some attention. Earlier on David Gregory’s show, Rachel Maddow and Patrick J. Buchanan both chimed in and believe strongly that Clinton’s going to the convention. Frankly, nobody knows what she’s going to do. We’ll find out soon enough. I just don’t see Clinton taking this to Denver. I know that ticks people off when I write it and I’ll absolutely support Clinton whatever she does, but she’s facing a real wall if Obama’s numbers top the requisite needed. Clinton has amassed a serious coalition that she needs to protect, while also thinking long-term. Who knows what could happen going forward.
I’ve also said recently that I don’t think there’s any evidence that superdelegates are paying attention to Clinton’s poll numbers against McCain. I think this exchange gives further evidence of what Hillary’s facing, even as hard as it’s going to be to read. From a Washington Post chat a couple of days ago:
Washington: Looking at the most recent Rasmussen daily polls, I see that Hillary manages a tie today against McCain, but Barack is down by five points to McCain. What piqued my interest was that while Hillary had a “highly unfavorable” rating of 32 percent (i.e., as I see it, people who never will vote for her) Barack was at 35 percent. On Jan. 30, as we entered primary season’s main show, Barack’s “highly unfavorables” were 20 percent and Clinton’s were 35 percent. Is this something superdelegates may be watching?
Paul Kane: I’ve spent the past several months talking to as many super-delegates as any reporter in America, I’d guess, since I cover on a day-to-day basis about 280 of them here on Capitol Hill.
I hate saying this, because all the Clinton people are going to flip out and say, You’re biased, you’re biased, you’re biased. So go ahead and flip out if you want, but the simple basic truth is that the super-delegates stopped paying attention to the Clinton-Obama race about a couple days after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries.
They’ve stopped paying attention to the primary, and instead they’re focused on an Obama-McCain matchup in November. That’s the basic, simple, definitive reality that has happened in this race. The “undecided” super-delegates at this moment are not going to “decide” any time soon, because to them the race is over, they’re just waiting for Clinton to drop out.
Sobering, I know.
I will say one thing. I believe Father Pfleger showed up at the worst possible moment. Since Obama’s electoral challenges haven’t made a dent, you’ve got to imagine that regardless of what Paul Kane, the Post reporter, said, the latest nut job out of Obama’s church certainly couldn’t have gone down well at all. What in the world could be next?
It will be some day tomorrow, followed by Puerto Rico on Sunday, which Salon.com analyzes, then the last two primaries on Tuesday.
Historic times any way you look at it.