Even if Democrats were to win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats representing places that Hillary Clinton won or that Trump won by less than 3 percentage points — a pretty good midterm by historical standards — they could still fall short of the House majority and lose five Senate seats. [Five Thirty Eight]
DEMOCRATS ARE looking at a much tougher climb in 2018 than is being admitted to openly.
As for 2020, the latest polling on Governor John Kasich has him polling better than Trump. Vice President Mike Pence has a super PAC and is courting donors, according to reports. Senator Ben Sasse has been to Iowa already.
Nothing will come easy for Democrats, a party that cannot seem to grasp that risk-taking is the only thing that will get them back in this game.
It’s one reason why Senator Bernie Sanders talking about Medicare for all going forward has establishment Democrats nervous.
The single-payer concept is increasingly popular in the party — high-profile senators like Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand and Kamala Harris have expressed some support, and, for the first time, a majority of House Democrats have now signed on to the single-payer bill that Rep. John Conyers has been introducing regularly for more than a decade.
But even as leading party figures have drifted toward supporting a single-payer system similar to the one proposed by Sanders, almost none of them expect anything like it to become law while Republicans control Washington.
With Sanders promising to play a major role in 2018 races, that’s led many party officials to worry about the prospect of his involvement in primaries that could upend the Democratic establishment’s plans to win crucial House, Senate and gubernatorial seats.
That Democrats can’t get their heads around Bernie Sanders being a frontrunner for 2020 is more evidence that 2016 still hasn’t run its emotional course.
That’s good news for Republicans.