
Latinos, Ground Game and The Hillary Coalition
photo via the Clinton campaign (public domain)
Clinton 3 Points Ahead of Trump in Final Bloomberg National Poll – The Democrat has strong advantages among women, non-whites, Hispanics, and young voters. [Bloomberg Politics]
THE EARLY VOTE among Latinos is up over 150%, according to Matt Baretto, co-founder of Latino Decisions. That means Latinos are also “a larger share” of the voting populace than we’ve ever seen in an American election.
It’s a historic shift in the American electorate.
Through Saturday, 565,000 Hispanics had completed early in-person voting in Florida, a 100 percent increase over 2012, according to an analysis by Dan Smith, a University of Florida political science professor who tracks voting data.
Including absentee ballots, 911,000 Hispanics have voted — more than a third of whom did not vote in 2012. “We’re witnessing explosive early voting turnout of Hispanics — both those newly registered to vote as well as those who sat on the sidelines in 2012,” Smith said.
The CEO from TargetSmart, who works with SurveyMonkey, said over the weekend on MSNBC that in Ohio 57% of early vote were women. He said it’s usually 52%. Donald Trump‘s lead is not all it’s cracked up to be. Then he said there’s virtually no organization for Trump and the organization for Team Clinton is working at full speed.
As for African Americans, Clinton is killing Trump among this demographic, which always comes home for Democrats in great numbers but no one should expect HRC to get the enthusiasm of Barack Obama among this demographic.
Hillary is working on her own coalition that includes Latinos finally flexing their voting power to send a message. It includes women of all political bents this year who want to send a message to Donald Trump. And it includes the foreign policy establishment and people like me who follow every twist in world events.
When Secretary Clinton stood in New Hampshire with Mr. Kahn, she began a pitch that revolved around the thought of giving Donald Trump the nuclear codes. She reminded people that once the order is given there is no review. A soldier who takes the order and carries it out is by her side campaigning today.
There could be an under vote for Hillary Clinton finally surfacing, see the above paragraph about Ohio. It’s why I believe she could win by 5-6%. Voters, including Republican women of husband’s who are for Trump, and women of all political parties too, with the largest block of voters Latinos, are energized to vote. NBC’s Mark Murray said they cannot calculate the number of Hispanics because they can’t grab a large enough sample because Latinos have have never maximized their clout.
Donald Trump has been the strongest GOTV inspiration for Latinos in American history.
It may even save Harry Reid’s Senate seat in Nevada.
One word of caution before tomorrow. Things are going to be unstable from early morning to late in the afternoon. Don’t bet your emotions on what you’ll hear or read, particularly on exit polling. Wait until 5:00 p.m. eastern time before you start depending on what you’re hearing.
You’ll just have to wait on Senate races, as well as the House. We won’t know until it’s dark on the eastern seaboard what’s really happening.
The advantage remains with Hillary Clinton as long as her coalition comes out and so far things are on track for Democrats.
If Florida goes for Hillary Clinton the race is O.V.E.R.
If – and when – @HillaryClinton wins tomorrow night, much of the credit should go to @MarlonDMarshall and his team
— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) November 7, 2016
If – and when – @HillaryClinton wins tomorrow night, much of the credit should go to @MarlonDMarshall and his team
— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) November 7, 2016
Music to my ears after the screeching insanity of hate radio today!!
heheheheh… It’s better to be Clinton today than Donald Trump.
As always great insight TM. This has been a roller coaster election and tomorrow will be the crescendo of screams–No matter how it ends.
It has been WILD.
Advantage Clinton… AND news now that Ayotte is now behind Hassan in NH.
Yes, I am losing faith in 538– The Senate races don’t add up-unless there are more GOP women that are splitting the ticket.
I have respect for their efforts but they’ve had a lot of problems this election season starting with missing Trump in the primary.
“AND news now that Ayotte is now behind Hassan in NH.” I’d like to hear the source of that since it contradicts what I “hear”.
For bragging rights for the next two years: R52 D48 (the only flips IL and WI)
A poll shown today on MSNBC also reporting Clinton is up in NH.
“Bragging rights”?
Republicans?
Keep reaching!
Rs will get “bragging rights” when they get more than Whitey in their “coalition.”
Clear the partisan cobwebs out of your reading comprehension. Bragging rights claimed before an election is inherently about one’s political analysis abilities. Bragging rights claimed after the election results are known are partisan.
#Mansplaining
Seriously.
May you reap what you’ve sown.
+1 Absolutely.
HEY casualO,
As of 12:00 am 9/11/2016, you have bragging rights on anything you’d like.
No matter the outcome of POTUS.
The very first few tentacles of the Kraken break the surface: 150% rise in Latino votes. What now Capitan Donald?
Don’t forget the few, the proud, the historically minded who see The Donald as existential threat to the Republic as part of the “I’m with her (if only for now)” part of the cohort.
Forget it? It’s part of the under vote I’m talking about.
Don’t forget the last break water on the Left Coast: CA, OR, WA, and HI. Polls close at 8:00pm PST with results in fairly quickly after that as in ” with .001% of the votes counted CNN projects California for Clinton” or some such. Only Democrats are contending for the open Senate seat . Down ticket is the only interesting story coming out of the Golden State. This may be National Politics shortly as Trump mayhap have pulled a Pete Wilson and ruined the Republicans for a generation.
That’s exactly what Trump has done w Latinos.
I remember Pete Wilson well, the man who killed the CA GOP.
My daughter and I early voted in Michigan on Saturday (they call it “in person absentee”). I live in Lansing, which is very Union heavy with two local GM plants and our mayor is Verg.
Lots of Hillary signs where I was. It will be interesting to see if Michigan is actually as close as people are saying. Obama was in Ann Arbor today (the Berkeley of MI), which HRC and Trump in Grand Rapids today (GR is pretty conservative).
Very cool, Maxy!
Watched the rally in Philly with the Obamas and the Clintons, Bon Jovi, and Springsteen. Crowd of twenty thousand. Just beautiful.
It was quite a sight.
I LOVED the rally in North Carolina. It was AMAZING.
Yes, it was. Incredible energy.
A Political Science Professor who is very respected here and is always interviewed regarding elections, and he’s also a republican. He was interviewed tonight and he said that the evangelicals have taken hold of the republican party and driven the moderates and educated out of the republican party. He then said the winner is the democratic party. He predicted that Hillary would take Colorado in a big way. Just wanted to share this because I live in a very red county where we have Focus on the Family and a huge mega church. There’s a church on every corner. So…I… Read more »
With due respect, it is the alt-right conspiracy theorists that have ripped the reins from the establishment of the GOP. Trump has retweeted InfoWars propaganda! The GOP has had the evangelical vote since Reagan at least, but it’s only the last few elections where the GOP mob wants ACTION on all the things McConnell, Ryan and Rush have said is wrong with the country. The faith-based base doesn’t understand the reality of what’s going on in this country.
#1 Steve13209.
Yep, since Reagan, when he invited in Phyllis Schlafley and Jerry Fallwell.
My twenty-something DC daughter first heard of Schlafley when she died recently. She was aghast at how Schlafley betrayed her fellow sisters.
She is a legend inside Missouri for very good reasons, a powerhouse of a political force.
The issue here is not evangelicals, but as Steve 13209 points out, the fringe element normalized. Those who are used to my historical rants can tune out, maybe with some C&W Ms Marsh? Others let me point you to the rather scary similarities with Benito Mussolini, Ion Antonescu, and a certain unemployed preWW1 Viennese painter and Munich Corporal with a dumb mustache. The seizure of the GOP by a group of authoritarian malcontents is the story here. They have flocked to their Übermensch leader who will via the force of his personality cure all ills. The cult of personality that… Read more »
Spin – We were talking about when evangelicals began, just to be clear. “Past Trump” is a faulty premise. See Bernie Sanders & how Hillary adopted so much of his populism, which wasn’t hard for her. After all, she’s a midwesterner, part of the crew that helped elect Reagan, of which I am a member. You’re missing the power of TRUMP like so many other lefties, which is the reason over a year ago I wrote that he had a “Reagan moment” if he knew how to handle it. As we will see tonight, Trump didn’t want to learn &… Read more »