
Iowa caucuses are here.
photo via Adam Parkhomenko at Clinton event, via Twitter
Making her closing argument to Iowa caucus-goers, Clinton now cloaks her detailed policy plans in Sanders’ outraged rhetoric. Pharmaceutical pricing “burns” her up. Companies that take advantage of the tax loopholes get her “pretty riled up.” And she promises to “rail away” at any industry that flouts the law. [Associated Press]
THE IOWA CAUCUSES are finally here so it’s fitting to remember what I wrote about Donald Trump over five months ago.
There is nothing more American than the life of Donald Trump, warts, ugliness, insults and politically incorrectness, and the belief that each of us can have the same success. He is the ugly American, with his barbs, loutishness, and childish insults, but he is also the successful American who has beat the system to rise to the oligarchy, the ultimate position of power in U.S. Corporate America. Someone who has played the system and beat it, again and again.
[…] Trump is still trying to prove he’s serious too, but like the Republican standard bearer who today wouldn’t recognize the party he once led, the one thing The Donald gets is the mood of America. He’s tapped into it and today feels confident enough to start attacking Hillary Clinton, leaving his Republican opponents to squabble among themselves.
We’ll just have to wait to see if it lasts.
Over five months later we have our answers. It has lasted and now we’re about to find out if Donald Trump will begin a turn to history.
Bernie Sanders is in a similar position as the Iowa caucuses approach. He has surprised everyone with what he’s accomplished which begins with having closed a forty point gap to have a chance of winning tonight.
The reason he was able to accomplish what he has, regardless of the outcome, is because, like Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders knew where the public’s mood was from the start. Both Sanders and Trump have been able to harness voter fury.
Sanders made some news on Sunday during an interview. Saying that he would change the Democratic party to take only donations from the people, instead of Wall Street, and change the party’s priorities too. It’s something he hasn’t broached before.
The advantage still goes to Hillary Clinton. Last minute surge from pragmatic Iowans could do it. The reporting from her last rally in Iowa brought memories of “fighting Hillary” back. This should have been how she started but it’s very good news she’s found her again because it’s Clinton at her most authentic, even if it’s not her most comfortable. Diplomats do not win the presidency.
But I must add that it would not surprise me if Bernie Sanders pulled off a victory. He raised $20 million in January, according to Politico.
How it got down to being this close on the Democratic is the saga of 2015 and being miles away from catching the zeitgeist.
The dominance of The Donald will either be confirmed or uprooted tonight.
For Clinton and Sanders we’re looking at a long slog into spring.
Look at this crowd for @BernieSanders: pic.twitter.com/ia1zCVDRPm
— Benny (@bennyjohnson) January 31, 2016
“I love you guys too,” she told several hundred people in Dubuque on Friday. “Everything I’m talking about I really believe in.” Why was a qualifier necessary?
Good luck to us all.
Bernie fans should be damn proud of what he’s done. Everyone in politics is in awe.
I have no idea if this is representative but I was pretty surprised at the number of people interviewed by NBC reporters over the weekend who were for Trump with Bernie as their second choice.
Yep, the coverage was so much fun this weekend!
People are filled with emotions that point to a very fed up populace who wants an outsider to stick it to the politicians in Washington.
That’s why Sanders is the second choice of Trump supporters.
Issues aren’t driving this campaign which caught Hillary Clinton & her campaign flatfooted.
Clinton v. Trump, it begins… Bottom line right now: Team Clinton hasn’t a plan or a clue how to run against him because no one in the establishment could conceive of Trump winning.
“Everybody thinks we are sitting around with all these plans, but we haven’t done as much as we should,” said one Clinton insider who speaks to the candidate and her husband regularly.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-iowa-218510#ixzz3yvZnX1cd
Could Trump be a mirage in Iowa? We’ll know tonight, but that’s something that would surprise me.
Hillary\’s statement of preferring to \”under promise and over deliver\” is ridiculous in a primary, especially when she\’s up against Bernie. I don\’t understand why she thinks that what voters want to hear… and as a professional, married woman in my 40\’s, I\’m her target demo.
Clinton remains the favorite to win but she’s running a different race than Sanders or Trump.
The response you’re citing is just one example of how badly the Clinton campaign missed the zeitgeist.
“Under promise over deliver” has many subliminal meanings. First, it is a way to contrast her promises to Sanders without having to go negative. It is also a way to contrast her message with that of the “hope and change” message that many are not satisfied has been accomplished.
Everyone knows what she’s saying but in a Speak Your Mind election cycle it’s very lame.
Lets hope 08 fightin hillary keeps on track-the past week she has been more and more populist in tone and fire. too bad she didnt do this frm start
Absolutely, Art!
Will Rubio be the surprise of the day?
Oh! I’m *so* glad someone brought this up. I’ve been watching this too.
Wouldn’t that be AMAZING. Dare I say, GO RUBIO?
Good question, Rainmaker. Best of the day so far.
65% Chance Rubio under-performs, from there 60% chance of an early death spiral in NH. Too young, too plastic. A bad combo for this cycle.
Well, that’s not what I’m hearing at all but I don’t think anyone knows.
This backs up what reporters on the ground are saying, and what I’m hearing. Big GOP donors moved to Rubio weeks ago.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/goldman-sachs-employees-shift-to-rubio-as-bush-support-fades
My stock in HRC is up. 57% she pulls out a win. Nate Silver reports that Sanders momentum has flat lined. HRC is surging back.
I’m bearish on Nate Silver, someone who missed by a mile Donald Trump’s rise.
The advantage is to Clinton in Iowa.
As to Sanders “has flat-lined,” again, that’s not what I’m hearing.
However, Clinton’s ground game is Obama’s template so anyone betting against them is daft!
I know a Rubio surprise is what all the pundits are looking for….it does not show up in the polling except he seems seems to be the second choice of many. Just caught him on MSNBC….I totally agree with spin’s assessment,Rubio is to slick by half.
I would rather there be a Paul surprise. One, I like him,two,I would love to hear the establishment GOP try to explain things.
I think the pundits want Rubio because they can’t believe Republican party has collapsed!
Spin’s right about his “slick” nature. But he’s a hell of a lot better than Ted Cruz, who scares me more politically than The Donald.
I agree with you Taylor. Cruz is really scary and definitely don’t want him on any ticket. When the Donald was talking about Cruz as a possible running mate I absolutely couldn’t believe it. I don’t think now that would be possible. Or at least I hope not.
Has anyone seen the pitiful vine of Cruz on Twitter? He is trying to hug his tween age daughter, I know she is at the squirrelly age for girls but she was having none of it. It is pretty obvious he has spent zero time building a relationship with her.
It says everything about him…
https://youtu.be/WIuhdfmCzdI
I find it extremely funny the time Carson plans to start his party 6 pm ” So come to the party –Don’t Caucus?”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/where-each-candidate-will-be-on-iowa-caucus-night-218483#ixzz3yvFtWSXs
What’s with all this hedging? Today is the day to show some stones. Expending time and energy to acquire political acumen has no reward if you don’t apply it to get ahead of everyone else with what is going to happen.
I predict Sanders gets the W in Iowa, aided by the greater allocation of O’Malley votes since he won’t meet the 15% threshold to keep these.
Trump finishes on top, but Rubio outperforms and finishes very close to Cruz.
I just don’t know what will happen between Sanders & Clinton.
Wouldn’t doubt if Sanders wins but I saw the Obama machine in ’08 up close so… Can’t definitively weigh in against them. That’s not hedging it’s experience with the onslaught they produced behind Obama.
I’m not sure O’Malley voters will be enough to matter, frankly.
I agree with you on Trump winning, though I think Rubio could best Cruz.
I will stick my neck out and say Sanders takes Iowa. I may be making the Pauline Kael mistake but I am seeing tons of excitement for Bernie and none for Clinton, and I don’t know anybody that answers telephone polls.
Good to know. Thanks.
Emotions will be high in the caucuses.
Hillary’s people have lots of training and there is more than one way to skin the O’Malley cat. Experienced caucus goers can look over the groups, determine the numbers, if the Hillary people have high enough numbers, allocate enough Hillary people to O’malley’s to make him viable and deny Bernie any delegates.
That wasn’t my point, actually. O’Malley’s people may not show up.
If they do what you’re describing is what I mentioned in another thread. It’s actually exactly what Obama did to Hillary in Iowa to win in 08.
O’Malley has people?
Too funny.
But he did himself some good because he’s young compared to the usual suspects. He’ll be back.
Nate Silver on Ann Selzer’s polling:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-final-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-is-out-how-accurate-will-it-be/
Quinnipiac challenges her on Iowa: Sanders & Trump leading in their findings.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/iowa-poll-donald-trump-first-time-caucus-goers
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Hillary will win Iowa and I say that not for any scientific reason other than reading the facial expressions on the msm punditocracy whenever I’ve had a chance to catch a little t.v. They look so somber that I figure Hillary must be winning! I thought Savannah Guthrie’s eyes were going to pop out this morning when Chuck Todd mentioned the Selzer poll showing deeper support/enthusiasm from Hillary supporters than Bernie supporters for their candidate (88/69%). And when Senator Tom Harkin was on “Morning Trump”, he mentioned that the Clinton… Read more »
Still bet Trump prevails in Iowa and if he does that could be the whole nomination.
Mark Halperin\’s quote on MJ could be the tell.
https://twitter.com/taylormarsh/status/694267030804041730
Hmmm. You know, I haven’t noticed anything on the msm discussing Trump’s get out the vote machine. So this is interesting, Taylor. I was under the impression he didn’t have much of one.
Mark Halperin is practically the Dean of the “MSM.”
Thank you for the NBC morning coverage. I can’t stand Lauer and so we always have a different channel on.. I hope you’re right about Hillary!
Hi, Velvet. Glad you’re back!
Forgot to put the link to Vilsack’s interview in the NYT.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/01/us/politics/hillary-clintons-quiet-support-will-carry-iowa-ex-governor-predicts.html?ref=topics