
Bernie pulls even nationally with Hillary.
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In the Democratic race nationwide, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has 44 percent, with Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 42 percent, and 11 percent undecided. This compares to a 61 – 30 percent Clinton lead in a December 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll. [Quinnipiac]
PERHAPS NOW you’ll understand why I’ve been sounding the alarm over Hillary Clinton and her campaign, going back to late August 2015. National polls don’t mean anything except when they give an outsider equal status with the establishment’s candidate.
Let’s go there first.
“Well, look, I’ve got to just jump in here because, honestly, Senator Sanders is the only person who I think would characterize me, a woman running to be the first woman president, as exemplifying the establishment. And I’ve got to tell you that it is… (APPLAUSE) CLINTON: It is really quite amusing to me.” – Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton is the wife of a former much-beloved president who has been able to also earn the right to jettison from a privileged life in the White House, Senate, and State Department to her own political career. Whatever you want to say about Clinton’s impressive talents as a policy maker, global thinker on foreign policy issues, as well as a leading feminist. She’s not an outsider, regardless of being a woman.
The other challenge is that voters aren’t looking for someone who can work the system anymore, and everyone knows Hillary Clinton won’t change the system because she’s part of it. Nobody is going to buy that she isn’t.
Clinton supporters were aghast when I wrote how complicated it is for some women where Clinton is concerned. That was back in October though it began in September when I challenged Clinton’s scripted, uninspiring campaigning. When I wrote that Clinton doesn’t have a message in January 2016, rebuttals were more emotional wishful thinking than persuasive.
Through it all the Clinton campaign had absolutely no plan to challenge Bernie Sanders by treating him like any opponent that wants to defeat you. The rumpled socialist democrat received a collective shrug.
After pulling to a dramatic tie in Iowa, with NBC logging that Clinton is the “apparent winner” even after the AP called it. The CNN town hall, then last night’s fantastically uproarious MSNBC debate, Bernie Sanders now stands as a viable alternative to Hillary Clinton, southern firewalls be damned.
And about the single ladies and young women…
First, it’s never cool to back the establishment. And until New Hampshire, neither Clinton or her team have worked to make electing the first woman president hip.
Whether you want to get into the weeds of intersectional feminism that goes beyond a privileged white woman married to a former president or not — I can feel people bristle as they read that line — it’s a reality that Hillary Clinton represents a world that most young women today will never reach, especially if they’re a woman of color.
Hillary Clinton’s establishment stairway to the nomination doesn’t impress them no matter how much she sweated to get there. Just imagine how hard it would be for a woman of color, many of these young women not seeing how Clinton ascending to the presidency has anything to do with them.
It’s just one reason the media unfairness meme that Clinton supporters constantly cite is not working. Women today know the unfairness we face in the media and elsewhere but it’s baked into the conversation. The media isn’t nearly as sexist as it was in 2008, unless you’re watching the usual suspects.
It’s why Nina Turner, in my opinion, once a Hillary supporter but now a rabid Bernie advocate, doesn’t see Hillary Clinton as the answer anymore.
Now that Bernie Sanders has stood equal to Hillary Clinton in Iowa, as well as the debate stage over multiple meetings, the advantage Hillary Clinton once had as the only choice has vanished. Even on foreign policy, Sanders is no match for Clinton but he certainly has gamed up and is getting better. The “judgment” versus “experience” knock on Clinton over her Iraq war vote is working.
Clinton should thank the debate gods that Libya hasn’t surfaced in the discussion.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton still doesn’t have an answer to the Wall Street question that will change minds, particularly young women, and independents.
Sanders on Wall Street is clear and understandable.
Yeah, I do. I agree with much of what the Secretary said, but, madam Secretary, it is not one street. Wall Street is an entity of unbelievable economic and political power. That’s a fact.
And, I want to say something, and it may sound harsh, not to you, but to the American people. In a sense, in my view, the business model of Wall Street is fraud. It’s fraud. I believe that corruption is rampant, and the fact that major bank after major bank has reached multi-billion dollar settlements with the United States government when we have a weak regulator system tells me that not only did we have to bail them out once, if we don’t start breaking them up, we’re going to have to bail them out again, and I do not want to see that happen…
No one knows what will happen in New Hampshire.
Then it’s a turn to South Carolina where the Sanders team better hold on. President Bill Clinton is already down there. This is where the establishment takes care of business. It’s where oppo research dumps bloom into fields of thorns for unprepared candidates.
Sanders will keep coming no matter what. The important endorsement from NAACP’s Ben Jealous is just the latest sign.
It’s a fight for the Democratic party that Elizabeth Warren started, and the establishment can delay but can’t stop.
Sanders to cameo on @nbcsnl tomorrow w/ Larry David… Sanders strategist Tad Devine tells CNN’s @ericbradner: “We'll be live in New York!"
— Dylan Byers (@DylanByers) February 5, 2016
The Quinnipiac poll is just one poll. I prefer to wait until Nate Silver weighs in. Hillary Clinton was masterful last night. I think she will close the gap in New Hampshire next Tuesday. As I watched Sanders last night, he still comes across as an angry old man and angry never wins in presidential primary or general elections.
One poll or not, Nate Silver or not, Bernie Sanders is now seen as a viable alternative by more people than he has been since the race began.
It is inarguable.
That’s what the campaign has been thinking from the beginning, and it’s not true and has resulted in this being a real race for the nomination.
A lot of people ARE angry right now.
Very fair and good analysis. De ja vue !!! Hillary missed a critical point IMO last night when asked to give the transcripts of her speeches. This should have been a rehearsed comeback– The fact that she said I will look into it was not the best response. Had she given the reason she would look into it would have been. For example: We do not know whether under the contract she signed that she even owns the transcript. There might be a non-disclosure in the contract that expressly states that it is proprietary information that she has no right… Read more »
I still don\’t understand why she feels defensive about them. No mileage in it regardless of the caterwauling. But then I\’m not big on apologizing for making money.
This Country was built on Capitalism and thus I agree she should not apologize for making the money. What she did was a totally legal enterprise. That is why to shut up the conversation she needs to be transparent. My mother always taught me it’s not what you do but it is the perception of what you have done.
Communicate transparently, unafraid of other people’s judgments.
It’s not the money. G-S could have paid her 3million a speech and not noticed. It’s the buying of influence, or the appearance of it.
I don not for the life of me understand why she and her campaign doesn’t turn this around and say this proves even when she takes LEGAL fees from organizations she won’t hesitate to do what is right no matter?
Absolutely. HRC earned the speaking fees, is entitled to be paid.
The second half, justifying it, takes more finesse but if Trump can rationalize his bigotry surely Clinton can justify working for a living while receiving the same price as men.
The appearance of conflict of interest is something that’s built in when you’re a Clinton talking to Wall Street.
Yep the two weakest comments last night were “I’ll look into it” and (paraphrasing) “I’m a woman so I can’t be part of the establishment”. My son-in-law is a big Bernie supporter and about had a fit with that second comment.
You point out what has been a continuing problem with the Clintons – even if they’re not guilty of something they often act like it.
And a suspect poll at that. A 20 point move in 45 days is, I believe, unprecedented in magnitude since Thomas Eagleton\’s announcement. That\’s not to say Sanders has not picked up some MoBerntum, mostly courtesy of becoming something of a media darling of late……..although the fact-check websites, hardly rightwing organs, took the leather to Bernie quite a few times last night……and I thought the guy was supposedly more honest than Lincoln and Washington combined.
My contingency plan, if Sanders succeeds in So Carolina, I just give Mike Bloomberg a call.
It\’s not Quinnipiac\’s numbers, per se, because I\’m not crazy about ANY pollster, including Nate Silver. I think these guys/gals are a scourge.
For Sanders, this is a perception game, which he is *currently* winning.
To win the nomination, the Dem superdelegates would have to all be killed in a Nelson DeMille type plotline!
Ha!
I agree, but don’t you love the idea of a long primary that lays out multiple issues? There is not all that much difference between HRC and Bernie on policy, so just talking policy differentiates the Democratic Party from the Grand Old Crazy Party.
See, I think there is a WORLD of difference between Sanders and Clinton.
The notion of superdelegates has always disgusted me. It\’s the ultimate elitism because it\’s built on control.
I meant that most Democrats could get behind either candidate in the general. Re Superdelegates, it is disgusting that private political parties make the rules for whom the American people can vote.
Whoa, that’s not a known fact at all.
Indies supporting Bernie will *not* vote Clinton.
Democrats may, but there is a contingent of progressives, small as it may be, who will not.
…and what Bernie’s stirred up will not go away.
Do you think going through this primary with Sanders will make Hillary a better candidate in the general? I was trying to say that exposing the Democratic policies, even with the differences, is a good thing for the general election. I believe it makes it more likely for Independents to vote Democratic. Obviously, HRC is not going to draw much from the GOP.
and it shouldn’t.
I agree, we have a generational struggle going on. As I said before I am sure if I was young I would feel the Bern. There were moments last night when I was reflecting on how grateful I was that Bernie was in the race because he was speaking over the usually filtering corporate press and laying out for the nation the bare truth about our economy. I believe him to be a very, very decent man and I know the kids see that too. That does not change my belief that all of the Bernie comparisons against the GOP… Read more »
Andrea Mitchell, for what it’s worth, knows A LOT of women in Hillary’s orbit. That’s where this is coming from, I believe. She can’t name names but hears about these women’s daughters too. They’ve just started hailing “the first woman president.” Why they didn’t make this their campaign slogan is BEYOND me. They forgot how cool it became to vote for Obama, though I don’t know how. Bernie’s cool, Hillary isn’t. You’ve got to make voting for Hillary cool, and what’s cooler than the first woman president? Maybe if she had a WOMAN AT THE TOP OF HER CAMPAIGN this… Read more »
I need to read up on intersectional feminism because I don’t get young women on this subject. Maybe it is because I raised her but my 39 year old daughter is a huge Hillary supporter and very feminist in a way I understand. My son-in law says, ” of course she is a liberal, she wanted to eat growing up” He also times me to see how long it takes for me to start talking politics! He looks at his watch and says” it only took 13 minutes.” Ha!
As far as I’ve been able to discern, there is no one, certainly not Hillary, or Chelsea, who gets intersectional feminism. It’s glaringly obvious.
The other half is Bill Clinton and what Trump said. This goes back to what I heard from women constantly in ’08. Clinton’s marriage & Bill’s infidelity, while she stayed, is a dealbreaker for a lot of younger women.
Oh, and too funny, and your son-in-law!
I wonder if those younger women know about their own parents close brushes? Or at least that generations? I see it as a feature of her faith and what I believe is a real love of her husband. I believe other’s marriages to be a mysterious thing and try not to be judgemental. Even though when faced with infidelity personally I could not accept it.
Not to be harsh but no one cares her reasons. It makes her look weak in their eyes. Worst of all, it makes her unrelatable.
Hillary’s husband humiliated her multiple times in full view of the public and the world. I understand why women can’t reconcile this image of Clinton with the woman who wants to be commander in chief.
“It’s a Methodist thing, you wouldn’t understand” :p
My Daughter is 21 and participated in making calls back in 07. So it is not fair for me to judge her reactions as to Hillary, but had I not been an extreme influence and she listened to her Father and not me she would have looked at Hillary with a different colored glass. The fact is that HRC has been in the media for over 30 years. This means that people that are under 45 (millennials) have heard horrendous things about her throughout their entire life. The media has not been fair over the 30 years in reporting. Families… Read more »
Secretary Clinton is as smart, empathetic, and tough as it comes in American politics.
I simply do not understand why she can’t summon her courage to face her critics without a script.
No reason she can’t go to a college and take hell from students. They’d respect her a lot more.
Chris Matthews is falling all over HRC these days. Why doesn’t he do a college town hall for her? It’s exactly what she needs.
I know, I appreciate Michell’s reporting on most things but never Hillary. Casy Hunt on the other hand I am really appreciating for her staunch professionalism covering this race, she is a young gem.
Oh, I get it. I just also know that Mitchell knows a lot of dirt she cannot report, which colors her reporting for a reason, imo.
Because of my deep foreign policy affinity, Andrea Mitchell is a hero of mine, going way back.
Casey Hunt is wonderful. I did call her on something she said Sanders said that he didn\’t yesterday though I began my missive with \”I respect your work.\” She\’s first rate.
Oh, I totally agree on Michell’s FP depth. Whenever that is the topic I always look forward to her reporting on it.
Thank goodness, young people are smart and are not voting just because someone is a woman. With all due respect, Taylor, it\’s probably a good thing, that isn\’t Hillary\’s slogan. It implies stupidity.
Last night I made a donation to Hillary’s campaign. I am with her warts and all and am disgusted at the pass everyone is giving Bernie on his pathetic articulation on foreign policy. He is not a well-rounded viable candidate in my opinion. He is a one-note candidate. Hey, but what’s not to like about a candidate that promises to give everyone a free pony? And I am baffled how one who has been doing the same job in Washington f like FOREVER is considered an ‘outsider’. Good grief! I feel as if I am in the Twilight Zone. I… Read more »
This woman articulates my take on this much better than I ever could:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/madeleine-m-kunin/when-bernie-sanders-ran-a_b_9170140.html
And 90% of the Sander\’s trolls are insufferable, with a few civil responses of agreeing to disagree.
Preach it, ladywalker!
There are SO many Dems who feel exactly as you do.
TM-paging Stephanie Schriock? Hillary needs to wake up if possible. Her message of doing things within reason isnt working. Paid sick leave etc are big big things-but she isnt painting them as such. I read post iowa campaign was to demote mook bc bill clinton etc had enough-but only if sh e lost it. Well hell for all purposes it appears she did bc it was too close-way too close. Pres Clinton is smart as they are-he must look at this and be like “wow again?” Hilary finds herself also wout grassroots employed i the states-like in 08 or worse.… Read more »
I said schriock as a fyi to take over campagina t some point bc at some point ppl, donors etc will say-uh this team aint working
As I blasted out on Twitter
Mook, Fallon, Benenson, phenomenal talents but if you’re competing for first woman president shouldn’t these positions be filled by WOMEN?
Hillaryland is all in New Hampshire. Oh, they know it but don’t have time to change it. (Or are more afraid of CLINTON SHAKEUP headlines.
South Carolina, notoriously negative, could be where Clinton operatives do their best or worst, depending on your vantage point.
Heard the same thing, Art. Word swirling, for what it\’s worth, is President Clinton has been concerned for a while. I also must thank you for taking time to comment. Too many people arguing with me don\’t understand that my writing so doggedly about her troubles, starting at summer\’s end, is because I WANT HER TO WIN. I know this turf. Ms. Schriock is lousy on camera most of the time but she would have at least understood that to make THE FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT a big deal THE CAMPAIGN HAS TO THINK IT\’S A BIG DEAL. Men aren\’t the… Read more »
Remember that really sharp spokeswoman for Obama in 12? I think her name was Stephanie ??? Wonder if she is working?
Stephanie Cutter, who was treated horribly by some of Obama’s men. Messina gathered a small group together at a White Sox baseball game, where Larry Grisolano, Axelrod and Plouffe spent half the game talking about the Cutter question. They needed Pfeiffer to take over the communications staff after the convention in September. Then Cutter’s role would be confined to TV. The only remaining challenge was: who would tell Cutter of her effective demotion? Messina offered, but that was rejected as an impractical move that would rupture Chicago. Plouffe wanted to keep his distance. There had already been several stories about… Read more »
Me too.
Yep! Its malpractice to keep this team fully in place-they are smart guys but yesh cheryl mills were are you? and the others that helped HER in 08. the clock ticks. Bill has been fightin the long game here-only to have these dudes who dont have the same level of instinct he does. Paging cheryl mills and bill-hell 08 team was better in many ways.
Cheryl Mills is *way* too smart to get involved in this mess. She’s always been far more independent, in my estimation, that Hillaryland allows.
Clinton ’08 problems were mainly Mark Penn who insisted she run as a man (I’m not kidding), who missed the caucuses even though Bill Clinton had done this before. God, I’ve still got 2008 PTSD.
I’m writing this stuff not just because of the nomination battle. Her campaign is killing her general election persona.
this crap abt lets do only what we can isnt workin. i dont get it
It gets down to the basics: Why do you want to be president?
Campaigns are aspirational.
Governing is about “doing what we can.”
That is the problem!!!! Does she know why she wants to be President? The answer she gave in the town hall the other night was awful. \” People talked me into it I didn\’t plan on running after leaving as Secretary\” I am surprised people have not blasted her for that.
If you do not define yourself someone else will!
Only 4.5 million watched the debate. Whew, brutal for MSNBC, Dems too.
The Quinnipiac poll has got to be an outlier, but it is indicative of a trend. Nice article, btw. Sums up the situation nicely.
The suit of golden armor that Hillary worked so hard to create is very impressive. Unfortunately, the 2016 competition is turning out to be a swim meet and she can’t take it off.
The polls are all over the place in NH, that’s for sure.
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