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Will Nate Silver be Vindicated?


No one in recent polling memory has become the lightning rod Nate Silver represents. His post today won’t make anyone any happier, but after Tuesday it won’t matter, because though his high percentages showing an Obama win from the start were a jolt, especially to Republicans, his calculations have the virtue, I believe, of being correct all along.

From Silver today:

Instead, the model estimates that Mr. Romney would need to win the national popular vote by about one percentage point to avert a tossup, or a loss, in the Electoral College. A tied popular vote, as Mr. Romney’s better national surveys now indicate, would likely yield an unhappy outcome for him.

Mr. Romney would not be in much danger of losing the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by more than about 1.5 percentage points. For example, he would be about a 95 percent favorite in the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by two percentage points, according to the forecast model.

But with national polls now showing a slight edge for Mr. Obama, these outcomes have become less likely. If Mr. Romney wins the popular vote, it may be only barely, and that might not be enough for him to win the Electoral College.

When you have a track record of analysis that turns out to be consistently correct you are often subject to unfair, even withering criticism. This is something with which I’m familiar.

But when you take the wind out of a race by pronouncing Obama has always been likely to win by huge percentages it makes you the skunk at the election party.

It doesn’t, however, make Nate Silver any less correct.

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One Response to Will Nate Silver be Vindicated?

  1. mfrank5 November 5, 2012 at 12:20 pm #

    This is the most important election since 1860.Abraham Lincoln was elected because he
    stood for human rights in that election.Today human rights are again the central issue.The
    human rights of women, of LGTB persons,of immigrants are threatened by the forces of ignorance and barbarism.

    Barack Obama, like Lincoln before him, is the bulwark today against those backward elements
    that would imperil the natural, inherent rights of our individual citizens.

    Nate Silver has once again nailed it–thank God.

    Historians have not questioned Abraham Lincoln’s economic policies, and they will not question Barack Obama’s, for the same obvious reason.Human rights are the central,all important
    matter before us in 2012, just as they were in 1860.

    Goodness will once again prevail today for Barack Obama—just as it did for Abraham lincoln in 1860.

.... a writer is someone who takes the universal whore of language
and turns her into a virgin again.  ~ erica jong