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Top Story — It’s the Demographics, Stupid

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AND BY stupid I mean former Governor Haley Barbour’s assertion that Sandy cost Mitt Romney the presidency. I made the case preemptively that Romney couldn’t blame losing on Sandy, knowing what was bound to come in what I believed (and wrote) would be a big win for Obama.

From NBC’s First Read:

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour asserted this morning on NBC’s TODAY that “Hurricane Sandy saved Barack Obama’s presidency.”

But did the president’s perceived leadership during the immediate aftermath of the storm really move 2.9 million votes? That’s highly unlikely.

In fact, Sandy may have actually cost the president 800,000 votes.

Let me add, on the demographics, which Jim Messina, David Axelrod and David Plouffe talked about in the last OFA conference call with media this afternoon. Obama won a record high 47% of the Cuban American vote (10 points higher than he did in ’08) to Romney’s 50%. Additionally, 81% of the electorate sided with Obama on the subject of whether he “cares about someone like me”; 60% sided with him on taxes; with 56% of moderates voting Obama’s way. Jim Messina clearly made the case that the voters had given Obama a mandate.

From Chuck Todd and the folks at First Read:

But make no mistake: What happened last night was a demographic time bomb that had been ticking and that blew up in GOP faces. As the Obama campaign had assumed more than a year ago, the white portion of the electorate dropped to 72%, and the president won just 39% of that vote. But he carried a whopping 93% of black voters (representing 13% of the electorate), 71% of Latinos (representing 10%), and also 73% of Asians (3%). What’s more, despite all the predictions that youth turnout would be down, voters 18-29 made up 19% of last night’s voting population — up from 18% four years ago — and President Obama took 60% from that group. The trend also played out in the key battleground states: The president won about 70% of the Latino vote in Colorado and Nevada, and he won 60% of it in Florida (a high number given the state’s large GOP-leaning Cuban-American population). On Monday, we wrote that demography could determine destiny. And that’s exactly what happened. While the campaign’s turnout operation deserves all the credit for getting these voters to the polls, the most significant event of this presidential contest might very well have been the 2010 census.

The other issue is that Republicans from Hannity to Barbour are contending that Team Obama was more negative than Romney. Living in battleground Virginia I can state that’s an absolute fantasy. The negative ads against Obama here were over the top, as were the ads against Romney. When Republicans talk about Team Obama targeting Romney personally, I have two words for them: John Kerry. These are the same people who swiftboated a Silver Star Vietnam veteran, as well as compared Max Cleland to Osama bin Laden. So don’t whine about dirty campaigning. It’s offensive.

In more statements of stupidity, Sean Hannity today lamented Sarah Palin not being involved more, positing on his radio show that this “star” could have revved up the base. He was commenting that Romney got fewer Republican votes than John McCain. You can speculate why that was so, but it’s as irrelevant as Mitt Romney.

Right wing radio is having a really hard time dealing with the demographic issues. Whitey can’t come to grips that the country is multi-colored. On Hannity’s Fox show, Patrick J. Buchanan was a guest in a segment on the subject and he looked positively suicidal about it.

This column has been updated.

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48 Responses to Top Story — It’s the Demographics, Stupid

  1. PWT November 8, 2012 at 5:32 pm #

    As wagered: “Solo was right and I was wrong, President Obama is a good President.”

    • Solo November 8, 2012 at 7:11 pm #

      You are a man of your word! Kudos!

    • Solo November 8, 2012 at 7:13 pm #

      Should have used the word “person”! Don’t know your gender!

  2. fangio November 8, 2012 at 6:11 pm #

    If it’s true that the United States is a right of center country then it would make sense for a Republican presidential candidate to run right of center. Romney ran extreme right of center and solidified that position by picking an extreme right of center running mate. Apparently he and his staffers were unaware that practically all the population growth in the last couple of decades was driven by hispanics and that women were not all that interested in giving up everything they had gained in the last forty years. It is truly amazing that all that money could not buy them the one thing they really needed: the ability to read the writing on the wall. Americans were warming to gay marriage and polling showed that they consisting came down on the side of pro-choice yet Romney’s team acted as if they were campaigning in some extreme right wing Christian country. Of course, if your running to the far right you would naturally pick a more centrist running mate, right?

  3. T-Steel November 8, 2012 at 7:03 pm #

    PWT this isn’t about Obama being a good president. Ol’ Obama did some things in his first four years that still makes me want to slap him. But you can’t run a Presidential Campaign where you pin un-American, anti-American, 2nd coming of the most vile, socialist, Marxist, etc on your opponent. No, Team Romney DID NOT do this. But conservative PACs did along with right wing radio. And when you have folks in your party feeling that all Obama supporters are government moochers and the white establishment is gone aka “our country is gone”, you have a problem.

    I heard two elderly white men here in SC say at IHOP today that they are glad they will be dying soon because “this isn’t America anymore because white folks don’t matter”. WHAT THE F@#$?!?!?! White folks don’t matter? Seriously??? Even my ultra-conservative neighbor acknowledge that the Republican Party has deal with demographics in a positive way or get ready to keep losing. Obama was primed to lose based off history. But demographics has destroyed that model.

    • Solo November 8, 2012 at 7:10 pm #

      “Ol’ Obama did some things in his first four years that still makes me want to slap him.” You can take the person out of the ghetto but you can’t take the ghetto out of the person! Stay Classy!

      • T-Steel November 9, 2012 at 8:12 am #

        Child please… Your minor league put downs humor me. Keep ‘em coming. :)

    • Solo November 8, 2012 at 7:17 pm #

      “Obama was primed to lose based on history”? WTF are you talking about? President Obama was never behind, Gallup and Rasmussen numbers were way of the mark.

      • T-Steel November 9, 2012 at 8:15 am #

        He was primed based on HISTORICAL patterns of what happens to a president when their are high (or relatively high) unemployment numbers. Usually a incumbent can be beat over the head with that and just lose. THAT’S what the GOP latched on to (along with other issues – some accurate, many not). And it did not matter. Which should scare the crap out of the GOP.

        Clear enough for you?

        • Solo November 9, 2012 at 12:58 pm #

          But you were wrong weren’t you? Eat your crow like a man! Ha!
          Ha! Ha!

          • T-Steel November 9, 2012 at 9:00 pm #

            What in he heck are you talking about? Are you just willfully yet blindly dense or are you just acting for fun? I’m not of the Elephants or the Donkeys. I don’t have to eat crow since I voted third party knowing they weren’t going to win. I’m making an observation. You and your cheerleading disrespectful ways Solo. You can’t comprehend a person that sits outside of the big two, doesn’t support the big two, but can still see what the game is between the big two.

            Eating crow… Once again… CHILD PLEASE.

  4. jjamele November 8, 2012 at 7:17 pm #

    Winning re-election with fifty percent of the vote makes one a good President? When did that rule get put into place?

    Doesn’t that mean that GW Bush was an even better President, winning with 51% in 2004?

    Obama was a better alternative than the corporate monster he ran against. Period.

    • Solo November 8, 2012 at 7:52 pm #

      Your not into the losing gracefully thing are you? LOL!

      • jjamele November 9, 2012 at 1:47 pm #

        I voted for Jill Stein. I didn’t compromise my principles, and when the next drone blows up an innocent Pakistani, there will be no blood on my hands.

        Meanwhile, from your earlier posts it’s pretty clear you don’t know what “gracefully” means, “LOL!!”

        • Solo November 9, 2012 at 6:34 pm #

          You were hoping that President would lose but then you looked at the electoral college projections and saw that was unlikely. So then you started hoping that even if he did win the electoral college race that he would somehow come up short in the popular vote so you could use that to paint him as illegitimate. Of course that didn’t happen either, so what was your last fallback? He didn’t win by enough! Reading your words as they drip with disappointment making this whole thing worth it! LOL!

          • Uh-oh November 9, 2012 at 8:59 pm #

            Life is just a football game, and your team won! How old are you anyway??? 18?

            Gloating by anyone is ridiculous–the margins aren’t that great. In eight years few people changed their opinion about GWB, and I expect that in eight years few people will change their opinion of Obama. People continue to have their own opinion no matter who wins, and that is as it should be. Like many others, I have not been impressed so far. Believe me, I would love to be surprised and impressed by even the attempt at some true liberal actions for the greater good–but I haven’t seen it yet. No LOL for me until we see how this plays out. I can only hope that we won’t all be crying in the end.

          • Solo November 9, 2012 at 9:44 pm #

            Uh-Oh: Over the last year ago since I have been visiting this site I have read one ugly post after another trashing President. Posts written by people who claim to be the biggest liberals in the world. So you’ll have to forgive me if I take some pleasure out of seeing the President’s detractors be proven wrong yet again.

          • Solo November 9, 2012 at 9:54 pm #

            By the way I never made any football references! I said fallback not fullback!

          • jjamele November 9, 2012 at 10:31 pm #

            Don’t quit your job to become a mind reader. You have serious issues I can’t help you with, but you can’t work them out by putting words in my mouth and thoughts in my head that simply aren’t there, and never have been.

            You are a very sad person. Good luck with that. “LOL!”

          • Solo November 9, 2012 at 11:48 pm #

            JJamele! President Obama won. HE WON! LOL!

  5. Cujo359 November 8, 2012 at 7:58 pm #

    “Political reality” is today’s most egregious oxymoron. Let’s break this down:

    - Hurricane Sandy hit the Northeast the hardest.

    - The Northeast is one of the regions that most faithfully support the Democratic Party. It’s Obama’s strength, IOW.

    - The people most likely to know about Obama’s leadership in the crisis were the same people who were most likely to vote for him anyway.

    - Those people were less likely to be able to vote, thanks to the timing of the storm.

    That doesn’t add up to the hurricane helping Obama. If anything, he lost votes.

    My guess is that Barbour felt the need to say something, and this is what popped out of his mouth. Whatever the motivation, his statement doesn’t reflect either reality or sound political judgment, beyond showing that he’s willing to say really daft things in support of his party.

  6. mjsmith November 8, 2012 at 8:00 pm #

    I do not stereotype people. I especially do not have stereotypes of people based on race. I know they exist. Chris Matthews is a disgrace.

    There was not a shortage of people who do not like President Obama. There was a shortage who like Mitt Romney.

    I did not vote Romney.

    I will say that some of the positives about Obama re-elected is we avoided an inevitable war with Iran, (do the math – Mitt Romney + Ben Netanyahu + 2 Trillion increase in military spending = war with Iran), and for me personally, I see this a a defeat of Mel Sembler, my enemy. http://tinyurl.com/agctvcv

    • Ga6thDem November 9, 2012 at 7:33 am #

      No, the reality is that there was a shortage of people who did not like Obama along with enough people that did not like Romney.

      • mjsmith November 9, 2012 at 10:47 am #

        then why did he get a lower result in the voter turnout this time around?

        • secularhumanizinevoluter November 10, 2012 at 8:13 pm #

          He got enough of a turnout to win both the electoral and popular vote. In my reality based universe world view they call that pretty decisively kicking the other guys butt.

  7. Solo November 8, 2012 at 8:56 pm #

    T-Steel: I have another little tidbit to share that proves how different (these two Harvard boys) President Obama is from Mitt Romney. On the night of the election The President went to his campaign HQ to personally thank his campaign staff for all their hard work on his behalf. What did Romney’s campaign staff get? Silence! And the kicker? A few hours after the election was called and they tried to make their way home members of Romney’s staff found out the credit cards linked to the campaign that they had been using for months were canceled!!! Plus just like the 2008 campaign President’s Obama’s 2012 campaign ended in surplus. Mr. Businessman’s campaign ended in deficit! Yeah these guys are exactly the same!

    • T-Steel November 9, 2012 at 8:22 am #

      And what is your point? That they aren’t the same? When I made my point a month or so ago about them being the same, my comment SAID that they were representative of the Big 2 system (two sides of the same coin). That hasn’t changed with me since I’ve always been a third party voter. And as Taylor knows, I’ve ALWAYS and will ALWAYS defend President Obama against the outright un-American/anti-American personal criticism against him. He’s no Marxist. He’s no socialist. He’s not the 2nd coming of the most evil. He’s not Dictator for Life. He’s an American with a loving wife and two beautiful daughters.

      But I absolutely can’t stand the party he represents. And I can’t stand the party Romney represents. They are not visionaries. I do NOT hate President Obama personally. Can you reconcile that in your brain?

      • jjamele November 9, 2012 at 1:49 pm #

        No, he can’t- any criticism of Our Young PresidentTM MUST be based on racism and evil and is Obama Derangement Syndrome, period.

        • Solo November 9, 2012 at 6:17 pm #

          I used the phrase Our Young President once and you cling to it a drowning man cling to a life preserver! Not to mention that the description is accurate. President Obama is a very good President and I am not saying that because I am some Obamabot. I am saying it because it’s true!

      • Solo November 9, 2012 at 6:22 pm #

        Can you reconcile this in your brain? This is a majority rule country, if you can’t get the majority to support you, it’s impossible to effect policy. How do expect anything to change for the better if the candidates you vote for win. 100% of nothing is exactly that nothing. The galling thing is people like you will benefit from everything President Obama despite the fact you had no hand in helping him!

    • Cujo359 November 9, 2012 at 2:57 pm #

      If Obama had lost and behaved that way, you might have a point. It’s easier to be classy when you’re the winner. As for the credit cards, had I been in charge of the Romney campaign’s finances, I’d have done the same thing. That’s an elementary security precaution. Any outstanding debts get paid, but there’s no reason to accumulate new ones.

      • T-Steel November 9, 2012 at 9:04 pm #

        “As for the credit cards, had I been in charge of the Romney campaign’s finances, I’d have done the same thing. That’s an elementary security precaution. Any outstanding debts get paid, but there’s no reason to accumulate new ones.”

        Bingo Cujo. Campaign is over. Time for debts to get paid and close shop.

      • Solo November 9, 2012 at 9:30 pm #

        So let me get this right. You couldn’t have brought yourself to wait until all those people who put their lives on hold had a chance to make it home before you cut them off?

        • Cujo359 November 10, 2012 at 1:58 am #

          They aren’t personal credit cards. They’re for campaign use. When the campaign is over, there’s no need for the cards. This isn’t rocket science. Have you never worked for a company that had a company credit account? Most of the time I traveled for a company, I was putting the charges on my own credit card, then getting reimbursed later.

          Sometimes, it’s hard to believe you ever worked for a living.

          • Solo November 10, 2012 at 10:15 am #

            So to you a political campaign and a for profit business is the exact same thing? Stench could have done the decent thing and given all those people who put their lives on hold on his behave one day to make their way home!

  8. Lake Lady November 8, 2012 at 9:50 pm #

    I have not been able to wipe the smile off my face for two days. I have really had to dodge my Republican friends. It is just so gratifing that they were so soundly rejected and that people overcame all the barriers and voted. The Senate outcome was amazing. All the billionares should have just sucked up and been willing to pay more taxes now they are out millions for naught and they are still going to get their taxes raised…..and Rove’s meltdown on Fox, thats one for the ages.

    • Taylor Marsh November 9, 2012 at 12:12 am #

      Missouri came through, thank the gods. Larry was so relieved for McCaskil, whom he knows, LLady.

      You should have a smile on your face. Hell, I do too. My neighborhood was a sea of Romney signs!

      Obama and his team, Messina, Plouffe, Axelrod, Stephanie Cutter, who played bad political cop a lot of the time, absolutely SCHOOLED the Republicans. They took simple census data and drilled down and out.

      We just watched the best political team in US history roll it out and up. You simply cannot give them enough credit, with Obama doing his part, including grabbing Bill Clinton and making sure he was by his side the whole fall.

      • secularhumanizinevoluter November 10, 2012 at 7:47 am #

        “The other issue is that Republicans from Hannity to Barbour are contending that Team Obama was more negative than Romney.”

        Ms. Marsh how can one NOT have a smile on ones face when contemplating these imbecilic assmonkeys just not understanding why they got their behinds spanked and continuing with the crazy…hell, doubling down on it! I am smileing from ear to ear!

  9. fangio November 8, 2012 at 10:26 pm #

    One of the biggest lies of this campaign was the constant mantra of Romney being a business man. He was never a businessman, he was a corporate raider and that’s all he ever was. His father was a businessman. And while were at it, the United States is not a business, it’s a nation and you don’t sit around the kitchen table and balance it’s budget.

    • Solo November 8, 2012 at 10:51 pm #

      Agreed!

    • jjamele November 9, 2012 at 1:50 pm #

      Neither was George W Bush a “businessman”- like Romney, just another guy born on Third Base with his daddy’s rolodex and a paved road to skate through life on, trying to tell us he’s actually accomplished something because he chose his relatives well.

      • secularhumanizinevoluter November 10, 2012 at 7:48 am #

        HOLY GUACAMOLE!!! I agree!!!!

  10. Ga6thDem November 9, 2012 at 7:38 am #

    Have you seen the article in the Atlantic about how conservative media really is not serving their listeners very well? It makes a lot of good points but I think the most salient thing I am seeing so far is that while conservatives kind of realize that they’ve been lied to, they don’t seem to be able to unhook themselves from the addiction. I think it’s going to take another Presidential loss or two before they finally get the message.

    • T-Steel November 9, 2012 at 8:26 am #

      The attempt to paint President Obama as “the most evil” backfired big time. Because it just isn’t true. The GOP should have formed some think thinks (oops… Rush is against think tanks.. oh well) and came up with a visionary economic plan. And ran on that. “The most evil” does not work and will not work. $500k a year Republicans. I can fix ya right up! :)

      • Cujo359 November 9, 2012 at 2:54 pm #

        Rush doesn’t like think tanks? Seems to me that if it weren’t for the AEI, the Heritage Foundation, the Hoover Institute, etc., he’d have far less material.

        Anyway, if think tanks could have gotten it done, Mitt Romney would be the one tearing up on national TV right now.

        • T-Steel November 9, 2012 at 9:06 pm #

          Maybe think tanks was the wrong phrase. How about just “think”? ;)

    • secularhumanizinevoluter November 10, 2012 at 7:48 am #

      Coolness!

    • secularhumanizinevoluter November 11, 2012 at 8:06 am #

      I’m cool wit dat!

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