THE ADVANTAGE remains with Barack Obama, which hasn’t changed all year. The first debate has kept Romney in the race, but it’s not enough to point to a win on November 6.

The Gallup poll is accounted for in the forecast model, along with all other state and national surveys. However, its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case. – Nate Silver

National polls find it close, but the Electoral College remains Romney’s enemy.

Huffington Post:

Two new NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College polls gave President Barack Obama comfortable leads in two battleground states, Iowa and Wisconsin, while a new Gallup Daily tracking poll gave Republican nominee Mitt Romney a 7-point lead nationwide. Not surprisingly, another dozen or so polls conducted nationally and in key states found results somewhere in between.

At the national level, the Gallup Poll got the headlines (see this Huffington Post report for discussion of why its results look so different), but four other national daily tracking surveys showed a closer race, with results ranging from a 2-point Romney edge to a 3-point Obama advantage.

NBC/WSJ Marist Poll on Iowa shows Obama 51 to 43 percent among likely voters.