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If Romney Wins Iowa It’s Huge

UPDATE 1.4.12 (12:01): Rick Perry gives 1st concession speech of life. Not assessing gravity of back surgery & trying to run for presidency looms large.

UPDATE (10:54 pm): NBC News Predicts Ron Paul places 3rd.  Romney team can exhale. Republican establishment & Iowa state boosterism, inspired by threats of extinction, kept Paul from winning. Santorum no Huckabee, because he’s Santorum. But with 110,000 reportedly the total turnout, Republican Establishment has to be shell shocked. They’ll all be counting Chris Christies in their sleep.  As for Obama, he addressed caucus goers, too. However, with Paul’s anti-war support, you’ve got to wonder what a progressive challenger taking the debate to Pres. Obama on his Bush-esque foreign policy might have done.

It’s a big if.

Rick Santorum is now in the center ring, with Ron Paul, well, the Establishment doesn’t like Mr. Paul.

But anyone talking down what it would mean for Romney if he wins Iowa is simply wrong. It would be a campaign coup of their dreams.

Of course, you won’t hear this on MSNBC, with Chris Matthews and Lawrence O’Donnell tag teaming Romney’s team on Super PAC ads, Al Sharpton joining in, clearly showing the same old bias of this cable network. Thank the gods Rachel Maddow was playing referee, though she was outnumbered and couldn’t manage to keep the whole segment from turning into a farce.

Of course, that’s not to say Romney’s victory doesn’t begin with the Supreme Court’s decision on Citizens United, which many of Mitt Romney’s biggest supporters backed enthusiastically.

However, when you’re going to have an interview with a senior Romney adviser Ben Ginsburg, who should be asked about Super Pacs because he was involved in pushing the case that made Super PACS come alive, you could at least do it fairly or at least one at a time, with a panel that isn’t loaded 4 to 1 against conservatives.

Newt Gingrich wouldn’t be squealing if he had a Super PAC, something all good conservative Republicans are never found without at election season. But hearing Chris Matthews now carry his water is an obvious set up, because if you don’t think Democrats would rather run against Gingrich than Romney you haven’t been paying attention.

MSNBC’s amateur hour election coverage isn’t going to cut it.

As an aside, Keith Olbermann’s “Countdown” will reportedly not be on CurrentTV tonight, which was tweeted by Brian Seltzer. He’s been AWOL the whole Iowa run-up.

People also want to forget that back in the fall Mitt Romney was seen as not being able to compete in Iowa, not having a prayer. However, running a stealth campaign, his team quietly got his 2004 team up and going and plodded a plan to make some sort of showing.

There’s no love for Mitt Romney anywhere, with whatever excitement there is seemingly on the side of Rick Santorum, according to reports on the ground, which is all I’ve got to go on from the Beltway. We’ll see if they’re right or if the media blows it again.

Just one week ago the big momentum was with Ron Paul. But then the Establishment Republican class started floating to the Iowa GOP and every media source that would suck it up that this would mean the end of their status. Suddenly state boosterism exploded and Mitt Romney started rising, as Paul was getting hit on Iran.

Will pragmatism win the caucus day?

If Mitt Romney wins tonight, that will be one reason why. But it will take a big turn out.

UPDATE 7: 110,000 reportedly the total turnout. Republican Establishment has to be shell shocked. They’ll all be counting Chris Christies in their sleep.

UPDATE 6: Romney takes tiny lead for 1st time: 23.1%, Santorum 22.9%, Paul 22.9% via AP at 9:31 p.m. ET. 25.8% precincts in, via Politico.

UPDATE 5: Santorum 24.1%, Romney 23.9%, Paul 21.9% via AP at 10:03 p.m. ET. 45.5% precincts in.

UPDATE 4: Mitt’s problem? Ron Paul, Iowa, Santorum and Ann Romney trending on Twitter but he isn’t.

UPDATE 3: C-SPAN live streaming selective Iowa caucus counting.

UPDATE 2: CNN final entrance poll results: 24% Paul; 23% Romney; 19% Santorum; 13% Gingrich.

UPDATE: Robert Reich on Twitter: Waiting for the results the #iacaucus is like waiting at the airport for someone you don’t know, don’t care about, and believe is deranged.

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23 Responses to If Romney Wins Iowa It’s Huge

  1. jjamele January 3, 2012 at 8:01 pm #

    I’m keeping up on Current TV- Cenck Uyger is a pompous, self-important windbag and a noisy, smarmy ass  but I won’t give the water carriers at MSNBC the time of day.

    • Taylor Marsh January 3, 2012 at 8:03 pm #

      I watch all the channels… occupational.

      Always appreciate people chiming in on what they watch. Thanks!

  2. Taylor Marsh January 3, 2012 at 8:03 pm #

    @CNN…. Meaningless “entrance polls” reveal Ron Paul first, then Romney, then Santorum #iacaucus

  3. secularhumanizinevoluter January 3, 2012 at 8:10 pm #

    I still say watch santorum…..OOPS Santorum.

     

    • Taylor Marsh January 3, 2012 at 8:22 pm #

      Oh, absolutely.  Really.  ;-)

  4. Wonk the Vote January 3, 2012 at 8:13 pm #

    Gah…CNN’s political coverage is like the entertainment coverage equivalent of US magazine these days.

    • Taylor Marsh January 3, 2012 at 8:22 pm #

      That’s funny.

      MSNBC has been amateur hour.

      Anyone watching Fox, after all, it is a Republican night?

       

       

      • jjamele January 3, 2012 at 10:21 pm #

        Man, you got that right.  Like I need Eugene Robinson on for the 456th time to snigger at what clowns all the Republicans are.  I get it- you don’t like the Republicans, Gene.  They make you laugh.  Thanks.  Please, go away now.

        Chris Matthews and Ed Schultz trying to out-windbag each other.  Rachel Maddow’s ponderous yet wondrous talent for taking one point and spending four minutes making it.  And don’t get me started on Al Sharpton, who should never be taken seriously ever, by anyone.

        Current TV has been no better tonight.  I haven’t tried CNN yet, but so far, Fox is the only place I’ve seen sober grown ups discussing the race and the issues.   Pretty sad night for allegedly “progressive” media outlets.

        • Taylor Marsh January 3, 2012 at 10:42 pm #

          Well, Fox is the Republican channel of record, but I think you need to reboot on that review.

          • jjamele January 3, 2012 at 10:50 pm #

            Any channel which does not include people giggling and chortling and trying to out-do each other on “explaining” to the audience how worthless all the candidates are and how Obama is So Vastly Superior To All Of Them is my choice tonight.  I am bored out of my mind with the “these guys are so stupid, they are dirt on Obama’s shoe let’s laugh at them some more” take from the “professionals” on MSNBC and CurrentTV.  Sure Fox is a cheerleader for the GOP but tonight they are the only ones who are taking a serious look at the vote totals and what this caucus means in the long run.  I’ll take it.

  5. Art Pronin January 3, 2012 at 9:55 pm #

    looks to me its a tie- the story is santorum and paul. paul racking up youth big time and indies. not a est. night

    • Taylor Marsh January 3, 2012 at 10:12 pm #

      Hey Art. It’s not the Establishment’s YEAR.

      We could be looking at 1996, if it’s Romney… which I still believe it will be.

      It will be a loooooooooong year to an election that delivers more status quo and maybe worse if there are no forces to challenge the new president (still likely Barack Obama).

      • Art Pronin January 3, 2012 at 10:18 pm #

        I frankly see ron paul as not bought although he has some terrible henious views- at least on war and the patriot act he is good. and santorum- what a night for him and I felt angry at how colmes treated him about his dead kid. i bet iowans did too.

      • jjamele January 3, 2012 at 10:25 pm #

        I don’t see how this is 1996.  Mitt Romney isn’t a 73-year old has-been who had worn out his welcome on the national stage a decade earlier.  Barack Obama is hardly Bill Clinton when it comes to governing OR campaigning.  And the economy is likely to continue to suck hard in 2008, when it was clearly on the upswing in 1996.

        I still think it’s got the markings of a 1980 more than a 1996.  People are still very pessimistic about the future.  The comfort level with Bill Clinton in 96 was very high- the comfort level with Obama is nowhere close.  This is going to be a tight race, and if Obama wins, it will be by a smaller margin than in 08.

      • TPAZ January 4, 2012 at 3:48 am #

        I still say this year could be closer to 1992. This year, none of the heavyweight Republicans want to go against Obama. In 1992, none of the heavyweight Democrats wanted to go against G.H.W. Bush. In 1992, California Governor Jerry Brown was the candidate to beat. This year it’s Mitt for the R’s. In ’92, Bill Clinton was the outsider long-shot. Will it be Rick this year? Does RPaul turn into Ross Perot and run as a third party candidate? Clinton won in 1992 with 43% of the popular vote. Can the winner in November do it with less than 50% of the popular vote? Although, Perot won 18.9% of the popular vote, he received  zero electoral college votes. Obama may need to swap HRC Joe Biden if Santorum appears on the GOP ticket. Blue-collar white workers is Obama’s weakness in the fall.

  6. fangio January 3, 2012 at 10:39 pm #

    Perhaps some good can come out of tonight  (  although I doubt it  ).  Maybe now people will finally realize that Iowa means absolutely nothing aside from entertainment.  The presidential election in this country is just too long and is starting to resemble  ” American Idol . “  The whole process should take six months and get back to work.

  7. Wonk the Vote January 4, 2012 at 12:44 am #

    Best line of the night goes to the Ragin Cajun imho

    James Carville: “There is one screaming, huge story here tonight and that is these Republicans just don’t want to vote for Mitt Romney. I mean it’s like you’re trying to give a dog a pill. They keep spitting it up. Now, they’re going to eat the pill, ’cause Romney’s going to eventually be the nominee, but…

    And it’s the same thing he had before and he’s got a weaker field. It just don’t matter where he comes in, they don’t want to vote for him.”

    • Taylor Marsh January 4, 2012 at 1:23 am #

      I mean it’s like you’re trying to give a dog a pill. They keep spitting it up. 

      Carville, he always comes up with ‘em, doesn’t he?

  8. Art Pronin January 4, 2012 at 12:47 am #

    Santorum has some scary views. But hell he had a emotive connection at least- blue collar roots big time. Talk about his family with heart. Romney’s speech is so phoney i cant bear it. If Santorum can get some dough he will be a huge migraine for mitt and obama

    • Taylor Marsh January 4, 2012 at 1:25 am #

      Mitt had the presidential teleprompter set up, but after Rick Santorum started speaking he took it down.

      Remind you of anyone?

      At least Romney took it down.

      • Art Pronin January 4, 2012 at 1:27 am #

        mitt gave sucha lame speech its jaw dropping. damn! if i were a repub i dont think i could back romney. he is totally untrustworthy

  9. Cujo359 January 4, 2012 at 3:11 am #

    It’s finally official. Romney by eight votes out of more than 100k cast. Maybe it sounds like a bigger difference if you think of it as $100k in campaign spending.

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