Mitt Romney will breathe a sigh of relief, though Politico thinks he’s got to reach the McCain bar.

Michele Bachmann better come in second.

Tim Pawlenty is toast unless he comes in second, and Newt keeps trying to pay off his debt.

As for Rick Perry, he continues to act like Iowa doesn’t matter, while Mike Huckabee takes pot shots at him.

If Mitt was daring, the second Rick Perry announces he should hit him from the left on being against Social Security and Medicare. No general election candidate could survive such a ridiculous proposition as Perry is suggesting, challenging the social safety net on constitutional grounds.

Speaking to Chuck Todd today, vaunted Iowa reporter David Yepsen said that if Paul wins the Ames straw poll it hurts the credibility of Iowa and diminishes it’s political power.

As far as I’m concerned that’s something that should have happened a long time ago. They’ve already got a reputation of people winning the straw poll who can’t go the distance; see Pat Robertson. But there’s still a lot of talk about Paul’s organization this time around, so don’t be surprised if it happens.

Yepsen also had a warning for Obama: liberals are demoralized, not just in New York, but in Iowa, so he better get busy. Trouble is there really is no way for Obama to energize liberals at this point, unless he pulls a juicy jobs initiative out of Sherrod Brown’s hat.