UPDATE (9pm): Rick Perry reelected in Texas. Andrew Cuomo beats Carl Paladino. Rep. Allan Grayson also went down tonight, which should be noted as well. Gillibrand, as well as Schumer, win in New York. Thune wins, John Hoeven wins in North Dakota.

UPDATE (8:30pm): Joe Manchin wins in West Virginia (by running way right). Richard Blumenthal beats McMahon; Elaine Marshall goes down to Burr in North Carolina. GOP picks up another seat in Indiana, which is going deep red.

UPDATE (8:20pm): Microcosm for Democrats, which is foreshadowing of a very bad night to come… Boucher in VA9 losing, Dem Glenn Nye losing VA2, Dem Perriello in VA5 losing, via @chucktodd. 1st election 4 me in “DC suburbs,” Connolly VA11 no good numbers yet, but he’s down right now (this is considered the “DC suburbs” where I live). Indiana wins for GOP are also sobering, as Obama loses a state he won in ’08.

UPDATE (8:00pm): Kelly Ayotte (Sarah Palin’s candidate) wins in New Hampshire, Chris Coons wins in Delaware, Marco Rubio, a rising national star for the GOP, wins in Florida. To note, Mike Castle’s seat goes Democrat, so “Thank you, Sarah Palin,” at least one happy note on the House.

UPDATE (7:31pm): Bushie Rob Portman wins in Ohio.

UPDATE (7pm): NBC News… Rand Paul wins in Kentucky; Dan Coats wins in Indiana.

Democrats have a 10-point favorability gap: 43 percent of voters have a positive opinion of the party, while 53 percent aren’t thrilled. The Republican Party also gets a thumbs-down from 53 percent of the nation’s voters, with just 41 percent saying they’re happy with the GOP. – CNN

Developments before final tally turn on whether you believe Gallup’s model for turnout. They register 63% to 44% enthusiasm for Republicans versus Democrats, which blows away the ’94 model, which I’ve never thought was completely apt. Using Gallup’s numbers as a possible backdrop, here’s the scuttlebutt circulating.

This is what comes from believing your own talking points, not to mention Newsweek’s polling (and Jonthan Alter’s analysis), that there isn’t really an enthusiasm gap between right and left.

There is a meme developing in what I’m reading and hearing that points to some underlying jitters insider Dems are now reportedly having over turnout.
Take Marc Ambinder

But privately, senior Democratic officials with access to the boiler room data say that they’ve seen nothing to indicate that these anecdotes are evidence of a Democratic surge, or will lead to a surprise in the story tonight. That’s not to say that there won’t be a surprise, just that nothing Democratic officials are seeing actually gives them real confidence that there will be one.

If anything the early boiler room data makes the Democrats quite nervous.

Democrats are even nervous — wait for it — in Delaware.

In a noon email alert to supporters, Coons campaign manager Christy Gleason said close monitoring of voter turnout in the state’s 41 representative districts showed “lower turnout in New Castle and Kent counties than we’re comfortable with.”

People, it’s bad, but Delware?

There’s also reports that turnout in West Virginia is huge, as well as in Missouri, which means to me the Roy Blunts machine is working at full throttle.

Lastly, there were reports very early today that weather in Alaska was awful. It matters when it comes to turnout, as the most committed wins.

…and apropos of nothing, ABC cans Andrew Breitbart. Let the pr war begin!

Dear Mr. Breitbart,

We have spent the past several days trying to make clear to you your limited role as a participant in our digital town hall to be streamed on ABCNews.com and Facebook. The post on your blog last Friday created a widespread impression that you would be analyzing the election on ABC News. We made it as clear as possible as quickly as possible that you had been invited along with numerous others to participate in our digital town hall. Instead of clarifying your role, you posted a blog on Sunday evening in which you continued to claim a bigger role in our coverage. As we are still unable to agree on your role, we feel it best for you not to participate.


Andrew Morse