Happy Election Day eve, with numbers coming out on Pres. Obama that are devastating for Democrats. Among likely voters, Obama is down to 44% approval; his approval among white voters at 38%, realizing that 85% of likely voters in the tough states across the rust belt and Midwest are white. Bill Clinton’s approval among whites in ’94 was 44%. So, right now my 50 seat House number actually seems low. Nate Silver’s scenario is negatively harrowing.
Segue to Sarah Palin who made a very bad bet with Christine O’Donnell that people want to use to paint her entire midterm prowess. Add to that Joe Miller losing after his surprising primary win and this would become her bookend nightmare endorsement, because Alaskans would deliver it. However, PPP has Miller favored again, remembering that betting on a write-in candidate, when nobody can really poll a state, is tough. Alaska is truly the who knows? midterm state.
However, the O’Donnell-Miller outcome won’t matter for Sarah going forward, because the Tea Party energy is what will capture the House in a big way for the right. Even after the silly doomsday predictions about Palin’s demise after she quit the governorship, which I never bought into, she turned the negative spin on its head. So, the politician who comes out of 2010 the strongest is Sarah Palin. That sound you just heard is the GOP establishment’s head exploding.
From Mike Allen, flop sweat at old boys’ club central over the rise of Sarah Palin’s power:
Top Republicans in Washington and in the national GOP establishment say the 2010 campaign highlighted an urgent task that they will begin in earnest as soon as the elections are over: Stop Sarah Palin.
Interviews with advisers to the main 2012 presidential contenders and with other veteran Republican operatives make clear they see themselves on a common, if uncoordinated, mission of halting the momentum and credibility Palin gained with conservative activists by plunging so aggressively into this year’s midterm campaigns.
The Senate has always been safe and the day before Election Day seems it will remain that way. But tomorrow is going to be one hell of a ride.
The long shot surprise for the Republicans may well be Harry Reid hanging on in Nevada. There is no get out the vote machine like Reid’s, and as I said from the start, to vote against Harry in Nevada is not a good bet. Jon Ralston, someone who knows Nevada better than anyone, believes he will, too. If Harry does hold on he shouldn’t be majority leader any longer. From Ralston:
Harry Reid is the most resilient figure in Nevada political history. He should not even be here. He lost a U.S. Senate race in 1974, embarrassed himself in a mayoral race in 1975 and should have lost his re-election bid in 1998. But he found a way to win 12 years ago, and he will again Tuesday.
The only thing that can change this is if the Republican wave becomes a hurricane. We’ll know early in the evening tomorrow.
My emotional bet is on Joe Sestak. I just love the guy. I can’t bet against him. But considering the white voter anger (file this under white voter exodus), Toomey just may pull this out on the energy of the anti Obama wave. If he does, Patty Murray is going down too.
Another one I think Dems could win is West Virginia, with Joe Manchin pulling through with a victory.
Democrats will lose Kentucky to Rand Paul by a wide margin; Rubio in Florida with Crist closing too late; Blumenthal in CT; the seat held by Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas will be lost to Boozman; Evan Bayh’s seat will go to Coats; Feingold a likely loss in Wisconsin to Ron Johnson; and also North Dakota with John Hoeven winning. Will Buck pull out a win? It’s a toss up right now, lean Democrat. Murray or Rossi is too close to call, too. Boxer will win, because conservatives like Fiorina don’t get that CA is a women’s freedom state. Kirk versus Alexi Giannoulias is for Obama’s old Senate seat and Kirk is likely, with lots of gloating to come if he wins. Missouri is going to go to Roy Blunt, who is as bad as it gets.
The House is another story completely, mostly bad, for Dems, with Tea Party energy fueling the fury and the turnovers that are going to take the rust belt through the Midwest away from Democrats, making 2012 a lot tougher than anything Obama saw in the general of ’08.
The Tea Party energy, however it manifests, remains a big win for Sarah Palin, because they’re unaffiliated and she put them on the map with her public persona. She earned publicity through getting 10,000 people to show up in Searchlight, NV, which isn’t easy, plus picks like Nikki Haley, with Sarah Palin putting her on the map. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire will also win, and if Joe Miller can hold on, well, with the big House win Sarah will claim victory. The midterms still a net win for Palin and her Tea Party power that all began in NY-23, which will benefit Republicans who couldn’t come close to doing the job they did.
Where to look for good news so Dems can come out spinning a save? If they can win the governorships in California, which is likely, Ohio, which is very tight right now, as well as Florida, get ready to see and hear a lot of positive spin despite the House losses. On top of this if Harry Reid wins there will be extra White House gloating. Democrats need these big states for Obama’s 2012 reelection.
One thing’s for certain, it’s going to be wild.