The House is one midterm story, but what’s playing out for the Senate is quite another. Only Democrats voting can turn these tough races where Republicans are still favored into a Senate seat. It’s also why Markos gets the tweet of the day. With two weeks left, some conservative right-wingers are losing altitude, with Democrats closing, though this won’t hold for Dems if the talk of turnout on the Right manifests.

Jack Conway has closed within 5 points of Rand Paul, which is why Paul went on Sean Hannity doing damage control over Conway’s ad that drew blood (and cries for a follow up). Too bad media insiders like Chris Matthews felt it necessary to help the right-wing on this one, taking Rand Paul’s side yesterday, when Conway’s ad exposes Mr. Paul.

The Sestak story goes hand in hand with yet another poll showing former Pres. Bill Clinton’s power in the 2010 midterms. The New York Times has a story on the loss of the Southern white Democrat, while African Americans remain a strong pro Dem block, which also features Clinton’s role in reaching out to southerners. However, the prognostication is something that may have many progressive Dems jumping for joy.

For the first time since Reconstruction, Republicans also are well-positioned to control more state legislative chambers and seats than Democrats in the South, which would have far-reaching effects for redistricting.

“It’s not a good prospect for the Democratic Party in the South,” said Glen Browder, a former Democratic congressman from Alabama. “It should be a moment of reflection for Democrats. When you forfeit the South, your sights tend to drift too far left.”

The “drift too far left” for people in Alabama simply means that they’re more Republican than Democratic, which is how Dems get watered down policy prescriptions that don’t do the job and piss people off.

However, Dems losing Pennsylvania is another thing altogether, which bodes ill for Obama in 2012, as does what’s happening in Ohio. From PPP on Sestak:

You can put Pennsylvania Senate back in the toss up category. Joe Sestak leads Pat Toomey 46-45 in our newest poll of the race, erasing the 9 point deficit he had in an August PPP survey. Toomey’s support has remained stagnant over the last 2 months while Sestak’s has gone up 10 points from 36% to 46%. – PPP

Toomey would have handed Specter his lunch, so it’s great that Rahm lost out. The race is now a toss up, but that’s saying something considering where Sestak once was in the race, with two whole weeks to go. I’ve had one-on-one conversations with Rep. Sestak. He’d make one hell of a senator for Pennsylvania, while representing blue collar Dems better than most.

Another interesting development is that Robin Carnahan has closed to 5 points on the sleazy Roy Blunt. I’m still very skeptical she can pull this out, because Blunt’s fundamentalist followers in my home state of Missouri are formidable, his network in the state smaller and younger, but not unlike Harry Reid’s tentacles in Nevada.

The House is almost assuredly gone for Dems. Unlike others, I never for a second believed Dems would lose the Senate. But since Russ Feingold is likely a goner, so getting Joe Sestak in the Senate would indeed be a tonic.

However, looming over the midterms is the trouble Pres. Obama and the Democrats are currently having with Independents. It’s bad news.