As Democracy Corps admits up front, who knows how this one will end, but right now the Democratic pollsters say health care didn’t do squat for Democrats.
Health care’s passage did not produce even a point rise in the president’s approval rating or affection for the Democratic Congress. Virtually every key tracking measure in April’s poll has remained unchanged, including the Democrats’ continued weakness on handling of the economy. Both parties are equally reviled, reflected in their lowest ratings in history, while voters want to punish those in power — for the partisan bickering, bailing out the undeserving, government spending, the deficit, and the endless gridlock over health care while people struggled to survive the jobs crisis. With independents even more conservative and Republican-leaning in this survey, the congressional battle in 2010 looks like a dead-heat at best — a 12-point swing in this poll from 2008.
The health care bill is a very bad bill. That people don’t get any goodies until years from now was a ridiculous way to put the package together. The mandate inside a monopoly a horrendous idea. That the taxes on the middle class will hit in later years won’t matter to Obama, because even assuming he gets a second term, the bad stuff won’t hit until he’s gone.
On another note (via Greg Sargent), Mark Murray debunks the wingnut charge that the Obama administration spiked a report revealing health care would increase costs before the final vote on the bill. Murray, however, doesn’t deny the report says health care costs would rise in the near term.
A little back story: While the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the health-care legislation (Senate bill, plus reconciliation bill) would reduce the deficit by $138 billion over 10 years and $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years, the Office of the Actuary at HHS said last week that the new health-care law would raise health costs $311 billion from 2010 to 2019.
Via Chris Cilizza, Charlie Cook has downgraded chances of holding Obama’s old Senate seat after Alexi Giannoulias’ family bank failed last week.
Another sign of 2010 is the Gallup poll on young voters.
Do you know anyone who is “very enthusiastic” about voting in 2010?