Sarah Palin Won’t Make Hillary’s Mistakes
09 February 2010 5:17 pm by Taylor Marsh
Marc Ambinder has written a very interesting post today on the devilish prowess of Sarah Palin, someone I’ve continually covered since the 2008 election ended. For good reason. There is no one who fits the mood or the times or fills the current political vacuum better than Sarah Palin. There has also never been anyone as electric on the right since Ronald Reagan. It’s true we’re a long way off from 2012 and it’s useless to predict what could happen. But let’s just say Palin’s preparing her way, because she intends to be ready if the playing field stays as open as it is today, because she has no intention of letting the Establishment ruin her party like what happened to Hillary, because Mrs. Clinton actually was the establishment candidate or so she thought.
As the left and the DNC mock Palin and delight in the prospect of a potential 2012 candidacy, with the Establishment crew on the right clucking over her lack of experience and required learning still needed to be done, Sarah Palin quietly goes about her business building her own personal base. Tea Partiers got her first. Next stop?
Next week, Palin will be a VIP guest of honor at the Daytona International Speedway for the Daytona 500. She’ll walk among the campers and RVs set up infield. This summer, she’s agreed to speak at an international bowling expo. In April, in Las Vegas, Palin will keynote the Wine and Spirit Wholesalers Convention at Caesar’s Palace. She will make choices in Republican primaries — she campaigned Sunday with Rick Perry, bearing a “Hi mom!” on her palm — more on that in a bit — and an eloquent jab at the President: “‘We will proudly cling to our guns and our religion.” – Marc Ambinder
I’ve never thought the mostly elitist arguments against her are worth the air needed to spew the venom. Because unless the Republicans can find someone with the same wattage, as Ambinder notes in his post today, she’ll be the toughest in the crowd to beat.
“If the primaries were this year, I suspect she’d be nominated,” a senior adviser to one of Sarah Palin’s potential rivals confides. It’s easy to see why: no one who’s thinking of running beats the enthusiasm she generates among Republican activists. But there is more to the case for Palin than just the confluence of her personality and a vacuum within the Republican Party: there is a method to her management of her public image. It strongly hints that she has pretty much decided to run for president in 2012, unless something knocks her out of the race; it is more organized and structured that it appears; and it is something that Republican insiders, in particular, will ignore at their peril. … – Marc Ambinder
Mitt Romney’s lack of emotional connection with voters works against him, even as the economic climate plays into his strengths. But Palin’s evangelical roots have the potential to wipe him out in the primary. As for Mike Huckabee, Sarahcuda will annihilate him with negative ads on his pardons, so it remains to be seen if his current popularity can withstand her onslaught, which will be unflinchingly devastating. As Sarah Palin has no compunction about playing hard and dirty.
As for the Republican Establishment, Sarah Palin has no intention of going the Hillary Clinton route. Palin knows they can’t stand her, fear her and will stop her if she gives them a chance or waits for their nod. Something Hillary never grasped of the Senate Democrats who worked behind her back to encourage Barack Obama to run. All’s fair in politics, but Hillary missed what was happening all around her. It’s not that Democrats hated Hillary like the GOP Establishment does Palin, but people from Harry Reid to Ted Kennedy to Nancy Pelosi were rooting for Obama, some long before Hillary even announced, with key players offering their support to Obama in private and long before it was made official.
It’s too soon to tell about Sarah and 2012, but she’s not going to wait for anyone else to give her permission to run for president. She’s not going to be a good little Republican and wait her turn either. Her instincts tell her, and Scott Brown’s win showed her, that the mood is right for someone who can tap into that populist, old fashioned anger, topped with a lot of home spun, good old American patriotism, which she hopes harkens back to a time when America was on top in all columns, everyone was working, Detroit was selling cars, and American prestige financially was still intact. Making people feel good about her and thinking it can translate to a different type of change.
Palin plans to ride the wave of gun toting, religion clinging, angry Americans, as they were known in 2008, as far as she can.
Besides, Hillary already prepared the way so that no woman on the national scene will ever have to go through the media gauntlet she did again.
Anyway, Sarah doesn’t care what the “lame stream media” says or reports. She’s already seen and weathered the worst to come out on the other side, already failed, so she’s fearless. Don’t like her crib notes on her palm? Mock her like Gibbs did, while also proving she’s relevant and what she does matters. She doesn’t care and neither do her fans, whom she hopes to turn into “Run, Sarah, Run!” activists for 2012. That dream of being the first female U.S. president never leaving her mind, the only downside of losing being she’ll be wildly wealthy.
Besides, Sarah’s got Fox, “the most trusted name in news,” and the biggest thing on the dial. Well, it was, until Sarah came to cable.
Taylor – I look at Sarah Palin and do not underestimate her for one moment. I think she has the drive, the chutzpah, relates to people of a certain mind set and has the ego to run for POTUS. What scares me? – when I take Sarah Palin seriously. And I do. She’d bring God and divine intervention into every decision she’d make as President. I’m at a loss as to what has happened to the Democrats and if Obama, by any chance, should lose against this woman, then the Dems will deserve everything they get. Let’s just say politics are now befuddling me.
It’s a long way from Obama and Dems “losing against this woman.”
But I must say I don’t know why you (and others) are so “befuddled.”
Carter was smart, a vet, with a lot going for him, but Reagan creamed him. Was George W. Bush half as qualified as Al Gore or John Kerry?
It’s a long way to 2012, so we don’t know the mood, but you need to re-read Ambinder’s piece. I’m not convinced of the Nixon-Buchanan thing, but it’s something I will ponder.
A very good analysis and assessment. As for her cribs notes, not the most professional thing to do. But, then again if Gibbs – after all he is the administration’s spokesman – feel the need to mock her, you really have to start wondering who’s out-smarting who?
It’s not so much that I’m befuddled by Obama. I’m befuddled by the Democrats. I have no clue as to what they’re doing, except letting so many golden opportunities go by.
Taylor, I mention the 50/50 shot Sarah Palin had in running months ago on this site…I keep telling people Sarah Palin is going to run in 2012…She does not have to win in the Primaries at all…She can still lose but make her self a king/queen maker of the candidate that survives it.
She reminds me of John Edwards…What makes her chances even higher is the fact Hillary laid the ground work on the dos and don’t for a female campaigner…As for the press secretary making fun of her…”A Big Who Cares”…Gibbs have never liked Sarah Palin…you can tell every time her name is bought up.
While the current outlook certainly is bleak, it is possible that what we see could be a short term phenomenon. It is being helped along I think, precisely because Obama has had little or no accomplishments to speak of. Moreover, The front-runner at the beginning of the primaries is rarely the nominee.
Anyway, Palin and her anti-intellectual Tea-Party cohorts are in the ascendancy right now precisely because they may feel threatened. These folks are always afraid. And rabble-rousers usually get all the attention. This is a rear-guard action.
At this point in time she’s very appealing to a very small segment or niche of the vast American marketplace. Believe me it is extremely difficult to roll a product out and make it acceptable to the mainstream. As someone said, it’s now official that her entire political philosophy can fit in the palm of her hand.
I have no idea what will happen or how, but I expect that something will before long, to take the wind out of Palinesque arrogance.
One more thing before I go…I’m so sick of people pretending Sarah Palin is not a threat to Dems…”Heck, she is a threat to America” and should be attacked at all times…Now, I see the media will set up a narrative of poor Sarah Palin being made fun of by mean Robert Gibbs…If it was Hillary they would have laughed along with Gibbs…there is a double standard going on around Sarah…it has to do with her looks.
Marie – I think Hillary could have done everything right and they would have still decimated her. The media hated her along with so many other Dems. Which is why I watch so little of the MSM. I just don’t trust them.
guyski says:
09 February 2010 at 5:43 pm
Old rule: punch UP.
Acknowledging Palin at this point is amateur hour.
The media won’t attack Sarah. She is their darlin’. There is no objectivity in the media. If they like someone or want to push them for office, they’ll do it and there is a willing public out there who’ll listen and go along for the emotional ride and vote for that person.
I keep thinking 2012 is a long way off and Sarah could end up with another scandal on her hands. Anything is possible.
Jane Austen says:
09 February 2010 at 6:07 pm (Edit)
The media won’t attack Sarah. She is their darlin’.
You must be watching different TV than me.
I’m not watching any TV. I’m only assuming at this point in time.
I’m being very cryptic and caustic tonight. It’s the kind of mood I’m in; besides I’m waiting for the snow. Are you ready for another whiteout?
…I see the media will set up a narrative of poor Sarah Palin being made fun of by mean Robert Gibbs…
I suppose that is one way of looking at it, but maybe for a lot people it’s just plain STUPID. Let’s see a indecisive administration, some health care thing floating around somewhere in DC, unemployment, deficits, a general incoherent message by the administration, but some how they can manage to spend time to come up with a juvenile comeback.
I guess everyone has their own priorities.
Jane Austen…I hope she can be stopped from reaching the White House…But, I have prepared myself mentally for her winning it all in 2012…I joke all the time with conservative family members that once Queen Sarah takes office I’ll join the Resistance movement against her…lol
Her punishing all those who speak out against her reign
I made a list of the things to look forward to in a Sarah Palin Presidency:
1) Draft
2) War with a Iran
3) Dick Chaney as her personal adviser
4) Minority uprisings
5) International Image will be back in the trash
6) Fox News (Trying to explain away her craziness…I can’t wait to see this part…lol)
7) Todd Palin abusing power in the White House
9) War Jobs ( Those people who wanted work will finally have it by surviving in the military.)
10) Sarah Palin finally being impeached or run out of office
It could all very well happen…scary
Marie205 says:
09 February 2010 at 6:20 pm
You forgot turning America into a theocracy. My husband will be taking sabbatical around the time of the 2012 election and we’re already thinking about what “country” we want to go to.
“You forgot turning America into a theocracy. My husband will be taking sabbatical around the time of the 2012 election and we’re already thinking about what “country” we want to go to.” – Jane Austen
My husband is asking his boss to let him trans for to Japan around 2012…Only if the election goes in the Republicans favor that year…lol
Seriously, I’m not a Dem but Sarah Palin scares the crap out of me…I know of a couple Republican friends who can’t stand her…but their is many Republicans who support her just because they feel she can beat Obama…I keep asking them after she does help you guys win back the White House how will you control her…they never give a answer back…
Jane – OT, but is your husband a professor? Which university? My husband is a biology prof here in Portland. Time for his sabbatical as well…
I live in Alaska. When Sarah ran as mayor of Wasilla, I remember thinking that those “hicks” won’t actually put her in office, but they did! I remember when she ran for governor and I thought, this woman ain’t ready for prime time–we won’t actually let her loose in the governor’s office. I voted for the other candidate. Then they elected her governor. She didn’t seem to have much gravitas then. In fact, I thought she was an airhead.
But no, this woman is very shrewd. She reminds me of Reagan. Reagan was a person who didn’t have a command of the intricacies of policy, but Reagan was a man of his times. He was there when America needed a kindly avuncular type. He smiled, told stories, told us how great we were and how our best days await us. He had a common touch.
I’ve seen Sarah operate and she really is not a nuts and bolts person. But she has the same MO as Reagan. She articulates a policy and she hires good staff and then she stands back to let them make it happen. She has a common touch that people appreciate here and throughout the country. I call her a Republican with blue collar sensibilities. I think she is in touch with what drives the “common” man. And people seem to understand and respond to that. On top of that, it doesn’t hurt that she is very attractive, tall and leggy.
Like many people in this country, I had to come to a point where I had to grudgingly respect Sarah Palin’s political power and appeal. After that, I actually came to like her. I think she did a good job for our state while in office always with an eye with what was in the best interest of the people. So Taylor, you are very shrewd to understand the power and potential of this woman.
You hit the nail on the head, Taylor. I have pretty much agreed with you on your analyses of Sarah Palin. And Palin would indeed be wise to learn from what happened to Hillary as I think she has. There really is no down side for her – she’ll certainly be wealthy, a long way from where she started.
Nothing would glavanize disaffected Democrats faster!
Republicans would be helping with the opposition research.
The Republicans like my brother who voted for Obama would NEVER vote for her.
The press is already getting harsh and giving up pretense about being objective about her. They will go against her full bore. That might not bother her diehaeart supporter but it will others.
A big plus for her is ignorant neo progressvies making fun of her on cable and in the blogs.
Lake Lady….Many Blogs and progressives made fun of Hillary too during 2008 campaign…I think Sarah can over come the air head label in one good debate with Obama. She reminds me of Reagan at times…but unlike Reagan she can not win simply on the “White” vote in 2012…she will need Hispanic, Asians, Blacks at some point. Bush Jr. barely won with what he had and Bush was no where near as polarizing as Sarah is going to be.
Look for Sarah to start reaching out to minorities around 2011…I can already picture her making a trip to Africa on some Christian mission.
I think Obama is safe in the AA community and probably in the hispanic community. Many of his appointees have been hispanic.It is white women he needs to worry about.IMHO
If Palin did become Prez she would probably quit after 2 years.
“It is white women he needs to worry about.”- Lake Lady
Not really he polls well with White women its White men he is losing. I bought this subject up once before about how Obama seems to be losing White men faster then other racial groups. Obama is connecting well to the minority middle class…its the White blue collar folks who don’t get him… The opposite is true for Palin these people love her and she speaks their language.
I know this is from the Weekly Standard but it is an interesting analysis. The question is will these people move to Palin?
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/clinton-voters-jump-ship
oops! forgot to leave the link.
Lake Lady…Those people moved to Republican moderates…Bob Mcdonnell, Scott Brown & Christy were not as extreme as Palin. In Bob McDonnell case he was a better candidate then Deeds…Obama had nothing to do with that man winning. My two brothers Obama supports voted for McDonnell because they hated Deeds…lol
Scott Brown won because of the anti-health care and bailout backlash…Plus, Coakley was just ran a bad campaign. Christy was going to win no matter what Corzine was hated. Obama will lose his former seat too because the guy pick to keep is seen as corrupt.
Count me in with the “Run Sarah Run” crowd! Not just in 2012, but 2016 and even beyond. Because the country needs more Democratic landslides, as well as comic relief!
Scott Hopkins says:
10 February 2010 at 3:59 am
Scott – I think you may be underestimating Ms. Palin, and I’m no fan of hers, but I always remember George W. Bush. I don’t underestimate her; she may not be intellectual or knowledgeable but she is politically savvy. And if people think of her only for comic relief that could be a mistake.
Marie~ he never had white men. White women are in flux if you ask me.
Lake Lady says:
10 February 2010 at 9:02 am
Marie~ he never had white men. White women are in flux if you ask me.
___________________
So what? The bottom line is, if Obama gets 40% of the white vote, he will win. Here is the flaw in the analysis from the Weekly Standard, which the author is candid enough to admit: It artificially claims three distinct Democratic candidates as generic proxies for Obama—and even uses a preelection poll sample in lieu of actual exit poll data. This can’t count for science, even on the Internet.
Now, it appears that Obama’s coattails are not nearly as long as he and others have supposed. But it’s hard to argue that the likes of Coakley and Deeds are adequate proxies for Obama. When Obama is on the ballot again, the voter demographics will look very different. Maybe the win won’t be as impressive. But it will still be a win.
That’s why Palin is important. Republicans are coming to a fork in the road. They can nominate someone who, while espousing conservative principles, presents him- or herself as a solutionist to independents. I can’t think of anyone for the top slot right now, but Paul Ryan would make a very intriguing Veep candidate. Even Democrats privately acknowledge that many of his ideas have substance and are not the typical Republican obstructionist fare. A ticket like that would pose serious problems for Obama, as it would attract the white independents that carried him to victory.
Or they can nominate Sarah Palin. Palin will generate a lot of enthusiasm among her base. But, equally, she will rally Obama’s base, even the disaffected Democrats we’re so worried about. And as the campaign rhetoric gets harsher and harsher, you can expect many white independents to likewise revolt and vote for Obama. The nativist, “I’m a real American, and you’re not” argument goes over like a lead balloon with that crew.
Right now, the smart Republicans know that, in Palin, have a tiger by the tail. Can’t win with her, can’t win without her. My heart hopes they run her. In which case, Obama wins going away. But my head tells me they’ll come to her senses, and not nominate her. That’ll make it tougher, and Obama will have to tack rightward — as WJC did — to bring disaffected white voters back. The table of voter demographics from the attached link tells the story: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992#Voter_demographics
To wit, Clinton’s share of the black vote in 1992 and 1996 was remarkably consistent: 83% and 84%. In neither election did he win a majority of the white vote: 39% and 43%. But he increased his numbers substantially in the following cohorts: Liberal Republicans (17% to 44%); moderate independents (43% to 50%); moderate Democrats (76% to 84%); and conservative Democrats (61% to 69%). WJC’s numbers increased among liberal Democrats as well, by only by 4 percentage points: 85% to 89%.
Moral: Obama wins by tacking right. Them’s just the facts.
Hey Lynnette, yep, dead on. It’s also fun to watch. Though the majoriyt of Democrats still don’t get it, most of them scoffing at anything Palin for months now, while missing it coming for over a year. Now they’re scratching their head, with Gibbs going after her in a press briefing. Truly amazing that.
Heya Scott, Pilgrim.
Lake Lady says:
10 February 2010 at 9:02 am
Everything is in flux right now. But there’s absolutely no tell on what will happen in 2012. That article an interesting read, with the obvious “Caveats abound, of course.” A good way to look at it is IF the election was held today. Obama would lose Virginia, with many voters who came out in 2008 deserting him by not voting or leaving the presidential slot blank; this includes Democrats, young people as well, but a boat load of working class too. I don’t know if Obama will ever get back my husband, someone who was *very* excited about his presidency when it began.
LOL
nzanh says:
09 February 2010 at 7:43 pm
As you’ve evidently seen her at work, interesting input.
Sarah *wishes* she was Ronald Reagan, that’s for sure. In communication skills she’s not even close.
ogenec, fear not. Obama wins by getting people back to work. That will happen well before the 2012 election. In which case he can move as far to the Left as he likes and the Republicans could run Abraham Lincoln and they would still lose. Sarah Palin is a buffoon. The political class knows that. But even they need an occasional laugh. Peace