Obama’s Trouble with Independents Trumped by Base Woes
21 August 2009 6:21 pm by Taylor Marsh
Trailer to Michael Moore’s new film.
Greg Sargent has the nutshell in the Washington Post/ABC poll that should certainly get the White House’s attention. With general economic woes, of which health care reform is a major solution, now a huge political problem.
When Obama came into office, what he was handed from Bush-Cheney was frightening. The economics alone was enough to give anyone a terminal migraine. But Obama chose to look forward, basically letting Bush off the hook on that message. Because if you don’t drive it home people quickly forget. Segue to the Friday deficit dump:
A White House budget official says the Obama administration expects the federal deficit over the next decade to be $2 trillion bigger than previously estimated.
The projection now is for a deficit of $9 trillion.
Independents care about this stuff, and the right will blow it through their trumpet until we’re all deaf.
Sargent’s breakdown of the Washington Post/ABC poll is important:
The numbers tell the story: In three key cases where Obama has dropped significantly, he’s also dropped by sizable margins among Dems and liberals. Let’s take the major findings driving the discussion today, and compare them with his drop among Dems and libs:
* The WaPo poll found that “49 percent now express confidence that Obama will make the right decisions for the country, down from 60 percent at the 100-day mark in his presidency.”
On that question, among liberals, Obama has dropped a surprising 12 points, from 90% to 78%, in the same time period. Among Dems, he’s dropped eight points, from 90% to 82%.
* The WaPo poll found that “forty-nine percent now say they think he will be able to spearhead significant improvements in the system, down nearly 20 percentage points from before he took office.”
On that question, among Dems, Obama has fallen a surprising 11 points during that time period, from 90% to 79%. Among liberals it was even steeper: A drop of 13 points, from 84% to 71%. (This could also partly be a referendum on Congress, but it’s still suggestive.)
* The WaPo poll also found a steep drop in approval of Obama’s handling of health care, which now stands at 46%, down 11 points from 57% in April.
But guess what: The drop during that time period was the same among liberals: Down 11 points, from 81% in April to 70% now. Among Dems overall, Obama fell six points, from 83% to 77%.
With these numbers and the reality that health care could drag even further through the fall, which isn’t hard to imagine at all (Lawrence O’Donnell has been saying this for a while). The Blue Dogs are going to see themselves as the next candidates on the endangered species list as they look towards 2010, likely digging their heels in further on health care reform.
Obama’s got serious challenges. The first is getting back his base, which is disillusioned, to put it mildly. All the while the right is readying to rev it up to full squeal, with the deficit number all the fuel they need. Not getting something done on health care before August break may turn out to be the ultimate turn of the screw.
