Yosemite Bolton Still Spinning Israeli Strike
02 July 2009 4:00 pm by Taylor Marsh
“We see how coverage has gone down since Michael Jackson died.” – Trita Parsi
Before the conversation today with Trita Parsi on Iran, the small group assembled couldn’t resist talking about John Bolton’s op-ed on Iran in the Washington Post today. It starts with a stunning premise, as the headline reveals: Time for an Israeli Strike? Seriously, since it’s coming from Yosemite Bolton, why the question mark?
Iran’s nuclear threat was never in doubt during its presidential campaign, but the post-election resistance raised the possibility of some sort of regime change. That prospect seems lost for the near future or for at least as long as it will take Iran to finalize a deliverable nuclear weapons capability.
Accordingly, with no other timely option, the already compelling logic for an Israeli strike is nearly inexorable. Israel is undoubtedly ratcheting forward its decision-making process. President Obama is almost certainly not.
The call with Trita Parsi from the National Iranian American Council was wide ranging. Here are some notes about what’s going on in Iran (see Iran 101 for the basics).
“This is not a one trick pony,” especially with Khatami referring to what happened as a coup d’état. “This movement has not ended,” just because you don’t see people in the streets. Much smarter to regroup and think of “alternative ways to manifest their dissent,” because there’s a “killing off” of demonstrators.
Ahmadinejad and Khatamei have lost “a significant amount of legitimacy” with the people.
Mousavi camp and supporters concerned about Obama engagement if it comes “soon,” with Ahmadinejad seen less and less on the international scene the goal, as it will help the cause of the “green wave.” Ahmadinejad’s cancellation of the African summit is good news.
Obama has helped through his anti Bush rhetoric, by not talking about regime change. He’s reduced the threat level, extended a hand, as well as talked about “mutual respect” that “did reduce if not eliminate” the hardliners effectiveness inside Iran. Obama also helped inspire dissenters to come to the surface. “What he has done has been very positive,” said Parsi.
Anyone who has followed Iran or knows anything about the history knows that women have always played an important role in Iranian society. I asked about how Ahmadinejad and Khamenei were going to deal with the women rising up, particularly with the very visible leadership role of Zahra Rahnavard, Mousavi’s wife, leading the way. Trita emphasized that women have always had a strong role in Iranian society, but it was now fully visible this time. No answer as to how the regime will deal with it. The rise of women in the Middle East, but particularly how they will impact the leadership in Islamic countries, remains unknowable, with change inevitable.
Ahmadinejad trying to “decapitate” the opposition at this time, with many stuck in house arrest or arrested. When they can’t imprison people, they attack through character assassination.
As for the regime’s response post election?
“It was not particularly well planned. … .. … They did not expect people to rise up in this manner. … The dust has yet to settle.” – Trita Parsi
