Liveblogging Iran Pre-Election Public Opinion Results
08 June 2009 12:11 pm by Taylor Marsh
–updated–
TM NOTE (after the event): CNN gets the headling correct. At least according to the people who actually commissioned the poll. Of course, it’s delivered by Ken Ballen and Amjad Atallah, two people who know what they’re talking about. During this discussion at New America Foundation, Kenneth Ballen of Terror Free Tomorrow took issue with the AP article on his polling that is entitled: Poll: Few Iranians see US favorably, despite Obama. He says this article gets the entire polling analysis wrong, because Obama wasn’t figured in any part of the polling at all. Ballen seemed truly mystified that the AP would deliver this verdict in their headline.
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12:15:11 PM: No surprise, “plurality of Iranians said they would vote for incumbent” Ahmadinejad: 34 percent.
12:18:15 PM: Results from survey by Terror Free Tomorrow, New America Found., KA Europe SPRL
12:20:51 PM: Mir Moussavi is at 14 percent, with 27 percent undecided; 89 pcnt plan to vote.
12:31:30 PM: Ballen (TFT): most polling is monitored by gov; poll shows Iranians want dem process; free elections, better US relations.
12:33:28 PM: Ballen says Ahmadinejad lead is likely overstated, race closer. A “run off is likely.”
12:37:08 PM: Iranians favor a system where they vote for Supreme Leader. Econony, assuring free press + elections are top priorities.
12:38:54 PM: Nuclear weapons issue came in last; nuclear energy program fully supported, as are inspections.
12:40:37 PM: Side note: looking around the room, five men are cat napping.
12:45:02 PM: Iranian people have a 71 percent favorable of Sunni;49 prcnt fav of Jews.
12:50:46 PM: Pourzand: follwing Facebook, blogs etc, Ahmad’s lead is surprising. No official parties; 1/3 have access to net.
12:57:51 PM: Leverett: no incumbent pres has been defeated; Ahmad has 12 mill+ reliable vote; “surge” for Mousavi reported
1:05:08 PM: Lev: Iran has “no strategic depth” in nat sect, with assymetric, nukes their only avenues. These are “defensive in nature,” the “essence …
1:10:24 PM: Lev: After 9/11 Iran reached out, helped in Afhan. and made Bonn conf success. Bush labeled them “axis of evil.” Iran wnts “real deal.”
1:14:21 PM: Lev: Are we prepared for “grand bargain” w Iran? No matter who wins a ‘gb’ is possible.
1:15:39 PM: Clemons: Flynt, tell us what you really think about Dennis Ross. –Laughter–
1:18:13 PM: Clemons comment ref Leverett saying anyone who thinks Iran not ready for ‘gb’ doesn’t know Iran foreign policy.
1:23:43 PM: Ballen takes issue w AP analysis bcuz they focus on BO influence, which is not in polling.
1:33:47 PM: I asked (Pourzand) about Mousavi’s wife: pop w young; used to wear mini skirts; they hold hands, new dev (in Iran politics), she’s important.
TO ADD: Couldn’t fit this in the orginal tweet of this entry, but when I asked the question I premised it on reports that Mousavi’s wife was referred to as “Iran’s Michelle Obama,” asking her to comment. Everyone laughed, with Pourzand getting quite animated on the question, as Rahnavard really has ignited the voters. As to the mini skirt issue, Zahra Rahnavard, Mousavi’s wife, gave a speech that was quite popular, where she said she changed her dress when she became more aware of the importance of the traditional coverings, which made her decision even more important. Her presence is helping Mousavi a lot.
1:42:31 PM: Who’s listening to Leverett? Lev: Clinton doen’t believe in ‘gb’, Gates same. No evidence BO will push it.
FINAL ENTRY… Clemons: Still hopeful. Believes Obama “is his own nat security policy.”
