Foreshadowing in an Awakening Leader Arrest?
30 March 2009 12:09 pm by Taylor Marsh
Over the weekend the Awakening contingent ran into Iraq’s Shiite government over the arrest of their leader.
I see storm clouds:
…As Apache helicopter gunships cruised above Baghdad’s Fadhil neighborhood, former Sunni insurgents fought from rooftops and street corners against American and Iraqi forces, according to witnesses, the Iraqi military and police. At least 15 people were wounded in the gunfights, which lasted several hours. By nightfall, the street fighters had taken five Iraqi soldiers hostage.
The battles, the most ferocious in nearly a year in Baghdad, erupted minutes after the arrest of Adil Mashadani, the leader of the Fadhil Awakening Council, which is composed mostly of former Sunni insurgents who allied themselves with the U.S. military in exchange for monthly salaries that are now paid by Iraq’s government.
…Some members of the Fadhil Awakening Council expressed anger and shame that the group had been disarmed. They accused the Americans of betrayal, raising concerns about the anger in the neighborhood and in other Sunni areas in the coming days.[...]
Juan Cole sees it as a good sign that the Iraqi army won this one. Maybe, but I see it as Maliki further squashing the Sunnis, with our help. That last paragraph above has the seeds of something ominous unfolding.
I’ve never subscribed to Tom Ricks’ pessimism on Iraq nor his predictions, but this particular skirmish made the hairs on my neck stand up. It has all the markings of a civil war sequel teaser, Shiite v. Sunni, though I’m not yet convinced fully. Still, one has to wonder what Maliki will do once we’re gone; or what the Sunnis will do.
As Hillary heads to the Hague council on Afghanistan, keep these latest developments in Iraq in mind. Because if Ricks is correct, Obama’s strategy on the Af-Pak region is on the block.
Amazing.
Taylor, did you really think that buying off the “insurgency” could come to anything other than a bad end?
Remember, these “Sons of Iraq”, before being given such a catchy touchy feely name, used to be called “Sunni Insurgents”, Saddam Loyalists” and “Former Bathists”. Only through bribing these guys have we managed to maintain this ridiculous charade known as “the success of the surge”.
This HAD TO fall apart. It was inevitable. And it ain’t rocket science.
Maybe you think tank thinkers are overthinking. It seems to be a fad in Washington.
BTW, Taylor. The American public, and Obama, were punked by Bush/Cheney. The reason that this scam has been marketed with the word “success” in the forefront is because the term has been firmly implanted in the minds of the unthinking masses. Logically, the term is ridiculous, just as “mission accomplished” was. But in using the term, and implanting it in the minds of the American public, the inevitable collapse of Iraqi society into all out Sunni/Shiite conflict will be directly blamed on Obama.
After all, he took a “success” and turned it into a “failure” will be the refrain. And the seething mass of drooling idiots that is the main body of the American public will nod and say “Oh yes, it must be so, because the surge was a success”.
The irony is that if it falls apart, and it will, Obama will be a one term President, taken down by a failure orchestrated, marketed, and sold by the Bush Administration as a “success”.