Iran Produces Low-enriched Uranium Bombette
20 November 2008 2:45 pm by Taylor Marsh
BY TAYLOR MARSH
The
New York Times article reports Iran has a single atom bomb of low-enriched
uranium. So I’m not impressed. An analogy is that it’s like making dough for
bread, waiting for it to rise, but it doesn’t.
[...]The report concluded that as of early this month, Iran had made 630 kilograms, or about 1,390 pounds, of low-enriched uranium.
Several experts said that was enough for a bomb, but they cautioned that the milestone was mostly symbolic, because Iran would have to take additional steps. Not only would it have to breach its international agreements and kick out the inspectors, but it would also have to further purify the fuel and put it into a warhead design — a technical advance that Western experts are unsure Iran has yet achieved.
“They clearly have enough material for a bomb,” said Richard L. Garwin, a top nuclear physicist who helped invent the hydrogen bomb and has advised Washington for decades. “They know how to do the enrichment. Whether they know how to design a bomb, well, that’s another matter.”
Andy Grotto calls it a “crude
nucelar bomb.” Grotto’s also got the details for math geeks.
Iran will also need more than one crude nuke to survive after they do whatever
it is they want to do with the first one they finally produce. Nobody seems to think they are near
the highly-enriched uranium needed for a real bomb. They also need to develop a delivery system.
But this is the world Obama will inherit. One in which Bush has made Iran stronger than they ever were before.
From the summary of the new
IAEA:
19. Regrettably, as a result of the lack of cooperation by Iran in connection
with the alleged studies and other associated key remaining issues of serious
concern, the Agency has not been able to make substantive progress on these
issues. For the Agency to make progress, an important first step, in connection
with the alleged studies, is for Iran to clarify the extent to which information
contained in the relevant documentation is factually correct and where, in
its view, such information may have been modified or relates to non-nuclear
purposes. Iran needs to provide the Agency with substantive information to
support its statements and provide access to relevant documentation and individuals
in this regard. Unless Iran provides such transparency, and implements the
Additional Protocol, the Agency will not be able to provide credible assurance
about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.20. Contrary to the decisions of the Security Council, Iran has not suspended
its enrichment related activities, having continued the operation of PFEP
and FEP and the installation of new cascades and the operation of new generation
centrifuges for test purposes. Iran has not provided access to the IR-40,
and, therefore, the Agency is not able to verify the current status of its
construction.
Hey, but it’s great PR.
