Tracking Poll Troubles
26 August 2008 3:45 pm by Scott Hopkins
by Scott Hopkins
Reporting from Denver
In Gallup tracking’s first fully post-Biden poll, McCain has taken the lead for the first time since Obama clinched the nomination. Not good.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama’s Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week’s standing for both candidates.
…An analysis of historical election poll trends by Gallup Poll Managing Editor Jeff Jones shows that recent presidential campaigns have enjoyed a small (though short-lived) bounce from the running mate announcement.
…All of these bounces occurred before the respective party’s convention began, and in most cases the candidates received an additional boost in the polls upon completion of the convention. Thus, any increase in Obama’s support in the coming days would seem to be more the result of the star-studded and well publicized Democratic national convention than the apparently lackluster Biden selection.
Additionally, Rasmussen has it at a 44-44 tie.
Biden may be an excellent fit for Obama, but he was never the one that would have given him that immediate polling bump rolling into the convention. His strength on the ticket may not be seen until tomorrow night, or perhaps at the veep debate a month from now. “Lackluster” is a premature assessment.
But is it clear yet that Obama can’t simply drift with the political winds and expect to win in November? It’s time to get serious, not only about putting forth a clear and concise vision for the future, but also expressing in no uncertain terms that President John McCain would be a disaster for America.
If not now, right here in Denver…then when?
