GEORGIA v. RUSSIA: Negotiations or Threatdown?
12 August 2008 12:00 pm by Taylor Marsh
Guest post by Mark Allen Haverty
The South Ossetian front largely no longer exists, as Russia has essentially
taken full control over the breakaway republic of South Ossetia. While
the region has still faced attacks from Georgia, it is clear at this point
who is in charge now.
While Russia was able to argue with some conviction that they were provoked
into the first attack due to hostilities occurring within South Ossetia, the
continued advance from the Russians cannot be. Georgians have claimed that the
Georgian city of Gori, near the South Ossetian border, is
now under the control of Russia, but the Russians dispute that claim.
Meanwhile, Abkhazia is quickly falling out of what little control Georgia had
over it. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili had vowed that he would bring
Abkhazia and South Ossetia in line with the rest of the country, despite having
been an autonomous region since 1994. This despite a cease-fire agreement in
place that allowed for up to 3,000 Russian peacekeepers within Abkhazia if need
be. The focus of the conflict there now is on the Kodori Gorge, the only area
of Abkhazia under Georgian control.
American reaction has largely been muted, with the initial invasion by Russia
met with calls for talks and a cessation of violence. Much of this was due to
the view that while Russia might have crossed an international border, one could
make the argument that they were provoked by Georgia and that they were acting
in the defense of the Ossetian peoples, who held autonomy and considered themselves
Russian citizens, as shown by their passports. Senator John McCain quite quickly
condemned Russia, distancing himself from the administration, and also from
the language used by Senator Barack Obama. With the further escalation of violence,
Senator McCain’s camp is attempting to portray themselves as prescient
while Senator Obama in their eyes is naive. At the same time, Senator McCain
has called for near-immediate entry of Georgia in to NATO, a move that the Russians
would see as provocation for further war. As
Ben Smith reports,
“McCain is pushing for a (sure-to-be-vetoed, and already in the works)
Security Council condemnation of Russia; an emergency session of NATO’s North
Atlantic Council — a more anti-Russia international institution than others;
to increase security of a regional pipeline; offer to help rebuilt Georgia;
and to weaken NATO’s formal ties to Russia while offering Georgia membership.
McCain also floats the notion of a non-Russian peacekeeping force in South
Ossetia; but it’s had to see how they’d get into a Russian-occupied country
without Russian permission.
The most dramatic suggestion is that NATO move toward offering Georgia membership.
“NATO’s decision to withhold a Membership Action Plan for Georgia
might have been viewed as a green light by Russia for its attacks on Georgia,
and I urge the NATO allies to revisit the decision,” McCain argues.
The treaty organization’s Article 5 states that an attack on any member is
an attack against all, and commits all members all members to defend any member
that’s attacked; so Georgian membership would, in theory, commit the U.S. to
war with Russia in a future conflict. The argument in favor of membership is
that Russia wouldn’t dare test whether that’s a bluff.”
As for Senator Obama, The
New York Times reports that he has said,
“I condemn Russia’s aggressive actions and reiterate my call for an
immediate cease-fire,” he said Saturday, adding: “Russia must stop
its bombing campaign, cease flights of Russian aircraft in Georgian airspace
and withdraw its ground forces from Georgia.” He also called for “aggressive
diplomatic action” involving the United States, the European Union, and
the United Nations and the deployment of “genuine international peacekeeping
forces” in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Senator Obama: UN. Senator McCain: NATO. One formed for peace, one for war
– this should tell you much about where the two are coming from in their
world-views.
As for who truly has the better knowledge of the area, one only needs to change
all references of Tskhinvali to Walt Disney World on South Ossetia’s Wikipedia
page and see what Senator McCain says next. Why is that? Well, Senator McCain
cribbed his speech from Wikipedia
– thank goodness for Creative Commons rights, eh?
