Hillary: Clinton and Obama Supporters have So Much in Common
11 July 2008 5:00 am by Taylor Marsh
BY TAYLOR MARSH
“… But of course those who supported me, for whom I am forever grateful, knew that we were on this journey together because we believed so strongly in the kind of country that we want to see again. And anyone who voted for me has so much in common with those who voted for Barack.” – Senator Hillary Clinton
This is from the women’s breakfast with Barack and Hillary yesterday. The video says it all.
Clinton’s supporters are coming toward Obama, with Hillary’s presence no doubt helpful in bringing the rest on board. But some will never come. However, Obama’s still ahead of John McCain even with 12% undecided Clinton supporters waiting in the wings. Via Pew:
A positive note for the Republicans is that McCain is now winning the support of 79% of those who supported his former Republican rivals. By contrast, just 69% of former Clinton supporters say they now back Obama. The putative Democratic candidate is attracting more Clinton supporters than earlier in the campaign (59% in May). However, as many as three-in-ten former Clinton supporters now say they will vote for McCain (17%), vote for someone else (2%) or are undecided (12%).
The smart thing for Obama to do is to let go of the 17%, hoping that some will come home in the end. After all, he’s already up 10% with Hillary’s supporters, which happened quickly, especially considering the toughness of the primary season and how close Clinton came. Fretting about the ones who are dug in, frankly, isn’t worth it. But the undecided Clinton voters are a real opportunity for him going forward. Once more and more women hear about McCain’s awful policies for women, Obama will get more of them. With Hillary on the stump for him she’ll bring even more of her supporters over, including pro choice Republican women, perhaps, as well as health care centric moms.
In the end, however, Obama is going to have one challenge, which I wrote about for 18 months. He is not an ideologue or a partisan. That means his political core is very hard to peg. Obama has to guard against this looking like unprincipled political calculation without a core voters can follow. Otherwise the larger electorate, especially independents, will get turned off. If he loses his “different type of politics” image or tarnishes it in any way he could also depress the youth vote. These events would be deadly for Obama and Democrats.
American voters are a fickle crew. They will vote for someone with whom they do not agree before they vote for someone they’re not sure how to peg. If they know where a candidate stands, a sort of inconvenient relationship can develop. Identification sets in and an emotional tie develops. This personal investment, on some level, is the key to winning elections. But if they are made to make guesses at every turn about a candidate’s views or positions, they’ll move away and vote for the person they feel certain about, even if they don’t agree on all of his or her positions. In the last presidential cycles, Democrats failed to make that connection with enough voters strongly enough. This is part of the reason we got two terms of George W. Bush.
