Obama Needs Clinton, Part II
05 July 2008 1:45 pm by Scott Hopkins
Guest post by Scan
The primary season ended a month ago when Hillary Clinton delivered an incredibly powerful concession speech. Since then, she has largely been out of sight until recently, giving Barack Obama the spotlight in the race against John McCain. By far the most high-profile appearance she made recently was alongside the presumptive nominee in Unity, NH, once again strongly backing Obama in further efforts to unify the party.
And yet, according to a new CNN poll, it seems they still have some work to do. In fact, the situation seems to be worse than it was a month ago.
One week after Sen. Hillary Clinton made a public show of unity with Sen. Barack Obama, a new survey suggests supporters of the New York senator are increasingly less likely to follow her lead. A growing number of Clinton supporters polled say they may stay home in November instead of casting their ballot for Obama, an indication the party has yet to coalesce around the Illinois senator four weeks after the most prolonged and at times divisive primary race in modern American history came to a close.
A growing number. What’s going on here?
In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey completed in early June before the New York senator ended her White House bid, 60 percent of Clinton backers polled said they planned on voting for Obama. In the latest poll, that number has dropped to 54 percent. In early June, 22 percent of Clinton supporters polled said they would not vote at all if Obama were the party’s nominee, now close to a third say they will stay home.
A month ago, Obama led Clinton as the choice among Democrats by 59-35. Now that number stands at 54-43. Buyer’s remorse seems to be kicking in, and why shouldn’t it? In the past two weeks, Obama has aided the capitulation on FISA, supported the expansion of Bush’s controversial faith-based initiatives, and once again left the door open on staying in Iraq longer than his plan would allow. That his month-long face off with McCain has basically been a series of schoolyard taunts and countertaunts hasn’t been inspiring either.
So in the face of this, and her appearance in Unity a week ago, these numbers do make some sense. Simply put, a growing number of Democrats want their Hillary back. Of course, barring a monumental scandal, the superdelegates will stick with Obama. But there are a lot of people…a lot…who would love to see an Obama-Clinton ticket. In fact, the one political question I get the most is: “Any word on Hillary in the VP slot?”.
The Hillary factor is actually visually illustrated in this tracking poll graphic from Gallup. The two biggest bumps that Obama received in the last month? Around the time of Hillary’s endorsement on June 7th and the joint appearance in Unity last week:
At this point, with respect and preference for Clinton growing, any choice Obama makes besides her could actually be risky and produce a backlash. I’m willing to guess that his campaign’s own internal polling shows a blowout in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan with her on the ticket. If so, such a thing may just be the factor and make all punditry arguments against it practically moot.
A completely unified and energized Democratic base, bringing along with it a big chunk of independents (who also voted for Clinton in large numbers), would ensure a landslide victory by two historic candidates and change the direction of our country in a huge way. Obama has already stated plainly that America needs the Clintons. But what Obama needs is 270 electoral votes, something he would reach with near-certainty with Hillary beside him on the ballot. Nothing else will matter if he falls just short of that magic number.
