Fighting to a Draw
24 April 2008 8:00 am by Taylor Marsh
The conversations that this is over are very premature. Take Michigan, for
example:
On Aug. 25, Clinton will march into the national convention in Denver stronger
than most people realize, thanks to her aggressive ground game in Michigan.
… ..… .. “We wanted to pick people who would be loyal to Hillary, who
would commit to her through multiple ballots,” Blanchard says.Michiganders for Obama, a ragtag group of new volunteers, triumphed in turnout
Saturday but were steamrolled by the Clinton machine. Obama has proved to
be a master of organization, but he made a tactical error not to plump up
his skeletal apparatus in Michigan.As a result, he will almost certainly fall short of the 36 uncommitted delegates
selected. Volunteers argued that only Obama supporters should be uncommitted
delegates, but they were outmaneuvered. About half of the uncommitted delegates
reserved the right to vote for Clinton, depending on whom their unions eventually
endorse. … ..Michigan
is becoming Clinton’s secret weapon (h/t jonas8)
Michael Barone weighs in on another score, or rather the outcome as a split
decision:
… .. Even so, Clinton now leads in the popular vote, if you include the
Florida and Michigan results, by 121,943 votes. And even if you include the
imputed totals for the Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine caucuses, she’s
ahead by 11,721 votes. It seems to me that this provides the Clinton campaign
with an important talking point, though one they’re probably reluctant to
use over the next two weeks. Reluctant, because the likely Obama victory in
North Carolina could erase this popular-vote lead, and) an offsetting Clinton
margin in Indiana seems unlikely (or at least risky to project from current
polling). But looking ahead from May 6, Clinton is likely to regain that popular-vote
lead (including Florida and Michigan) and quite possibly could gain a popular-vote
lead counting just Florida and not the more problematic (because Obama was
not on the ballot there) Michigan. She’ll get big margins in West Virginia
on May 13 and Kentucky on May 20, and it’s not clear Obama will get a big
margin in Oregon on May 20; Obama won the nonbinding February 19 primary in
Washington only narrowly. If Clinton wins big in Puerto Rico on June 1, as
the one poll I’ve seen there suggests, that will far outshadow in popular
votes any Obama margins in South Dakota and Montana on June 3. … ..
The biggest problem Obama has is that he just doesn’t seem a tough enough campaigner
to close it out. Sure, he can send around negative mailers and have his talking
heads impugn Clinton in conference calls, which he does. But when it comes to
weighing in himself, it doesn’t seem he likes to have his own signature on the
slime he’s moving. That way he can stand in front of cameras with a straight face and say Clinton is the one being negative, like he’s some innocent. He also doesn’t know how to deliver a hit on Clinton that
has any finesse.
Obama and Clinton both made annoying February mistakes. Mark Penn’s strategy from the start seemed to be that Clinton would take Obama out on Super Tuesday. Obama thought his wins in the February caucuses would
finish her. They both miscalculated, so now they’re stuck with one another until
the end, with the final numbers a draw. He’s likely to win the delegate count, but be saddled with a reputation that he’s not tough enough for the general election, especially with the baggage he brings that is finally starting to stick. Clinton may win the popular vote (she’s ahead), with many superdelegates wondering if her negatives can withstand the fall election, while wondering if they can get away with giving the nomination to Obama. Meanwhile, both sets of candidate voters feel entitled.
Superdelegates have got to start acting like grown ups and focus on one thing: who can win in November? A wrong answer puts McCain in the White House.
