Rise, Hillary…
19 April 2008 11:34 am by Scott Hopkins
Rise, Hillary…
Guest post by Scan
You know, as pretty as yesterday’s graph was, I think this one is even nicer.
Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup’s daily tracking since March 18-20… These results are based on interviewing conducted April 16-18, including two days of interviewing after the contentious Wednesday night debate in Philadelphia and the media focus that followed. Support for Hillary Clinton has been significantly higher in both of these post-debate nights of interviewing than in recent weeks.
Also of note, the Rasmussen tracking poll has also tightened noticeably since the debate. Its now Obama 45% – Clinton 43%.
While the state polls mean more at this point, these can help shape the media narrative. When Obama had a very large lead in the Gallup poll a few days ago, the talking heads on cable would not shut up about it. It fit into their “Hillary on the ropes” narrative…so maybe they will trump up these new numbers in equal measure!
Right?
Riiiiight?
As a political nerd, I can’t help but keep track of these polls…even while admitting that we shouldn’t have complete faith in their accuracy on a day-by-day basis. Statistical noise does occur. But my feeling is…when both of these polls show similar patterns, its a good sign of something real. So I’d say it does look like Obama’s disastrous debate performance is having an impact on the race at this point, and that whining about the referees is not helping.
Something to keep an eye on.
