Obama Support ‘Softens’
04 April 2008 8:00 am by Taylor Marsh
That’s the headline to the
New York Times’s view of the new CBS/NYT poll:
Senator Barack Obama’s support among Democrats nationally has softened
over the last month — particularly among men and upper-income voters
— as voters have taken a slightly less positive view of him than they
did after his burst of victories in February, according to the latest New
York Times/CBS News poll. …… .. Mr. Obama’s big lead among men over Mrs. Clinton has
disappeared during that period; in February 67 percent of men wanted the party
to nominate him compared with 28 percent for Mrs. Clinton, while now 47 percent
of men back him compared with 42 percent for Mrs. Clinton, a difference that
is within the poll’s margin of error. Similarly, his lead among
whites, voters making more than $50,000 annually and voters under age 45 has
shrunk.
One thing that’s clear in the poll is that all the talk about pushing Clinton
out of the race has had an impact. A huge number of Democratic primary voters
(DPV) in this poll believe Obama will “finally win the Democratic nomination”:
69% to 21% for Clinton. Leahy, Richardson, even Pelosi, who has been talking about delegates
instead of popular vote, has clearly hurt Clinton.
But among registered voters, Obama has also lost 1%, if asked “who would you
vote for today.” Clinton has gained 2%. Clinton beats McCain 48% to 43%.
Obama beats McCain 47% to 42%.
On how the candidate will handle the economy, with registered voters, Clinton’s “very confident”
number is 23%; Obama’s is 17%; with McCain at 11%.
On making “right decisions” about health care, with registered voters,
Clinton’s “very confident” number is at 27%; Obama’s is 17%; with McCain
at 11%.
Obama has lost support among independents from two weeks ago, according to this poll.
The Obama blogs will likely not report on what’s above, because it’s clear
that Clinton is in front on competency. Also, a couple of the internal numbers don’t match up with voting preferences, which has Clinton and Obama very close. The “inexperienced” reality
of Senator Obama clearly keeps him lagging on the issues. Take a look at the
CBS pdf and NYTimes
pdf and make your own judgments. They include Rev. Wright in the polling, but
among Democratic primary voters it’s just not a big issue. When it will hurt
is if the Republicans are allowed to get a hold of the issue. Their 527s will
let wail.
Preferences of Democratic primary voters for the nominee is the same as it was two weeks ago: Obama 46%, Clinton 43%. Republicans prefer Obama now, however, with this observation within CBS’s analysis something I think is inescapable.
What has changed is that Obama is now the choice of Republicans, though many of them don’t want either candidate. In mid-March, Clinton led Obama among Republicans, 35% to 27%. (Of course, that can just as easily be due to Republicans thinking Obama might be easier to beat as Republicans liking his candidacy).
As to that last line above in parenthesis, bank on it (h/t ScottVA).
