Taylor Marsh – TaylorMarsh.com – News, Opinion and Weblog on Progressive Politics

Democratic Groups Most at Risk of Deserting via Gallup

Here we go.

Pew Poll
this time. Here’s the headline: Obama Weathers the Wright Storm, Clinton
Faces Credibility Problem.

More than eight-in-ten supporters of Obama (84%) who have heard about the controversy over Wright’s sermons say he has done an excellent or good job of dealing with the situation. Reactions from Clinton supporters, and Republicans, are on balance negative; however, 43% of Clinton voters and a third of Republican voters who have heard about the affair express positive opinions about Obama’s handling of the situation. .. ..

Got that? Again, no doubt, Obama gave another terrific speech.

One problem: Of course Obama supporters don’t care about Wright. The heading
also only addressess the Democratic primary, while leaving out a major shift
among Democrats buried in the findings. Oh, and the Democratic party people
prefer Obama over Clinton. He’s the darling. Alert the media. Never mind, they’re
all over that one. But what happens if Obama tanks in the general because of
Wright? An unknown, right? Not completely.

What the headline doesn’t say is in the text of the polling data.

These patterns suggest the potential for future reverberations from the Wright controversy if Obama wins the Democratic nomination. More conservative beliefs about equal rights and race are not only related to negative opinions of Obama among Democrats, suggesting the potential for defections among Democratic voters, but also are associated with negative views of him in the electorate at large. An analysis of the survey finds that holding conservative positions on political and social values is associated with a greater likelihood of supporting McCain over Obama among Republicans, Democrats and independents, and all demographic groups. In contrast, however, this pattern is much less apparent in the Clinton-McCain matchup, excepting views about women in leadership roles. One of the few negative trends for Obama following the Wright affair is that a larger number of conservative Republicans hold a very unfavorable opinion of him in the new poll than did so in February. The survey also finds that Obama no longer enjoys the favorable image rating advantage over McCain among independents that was apparent in previous polls. … ..

Never mind that without Republicans and independents Obama wouldn’t be winning
right now. Never mind what would have happned if Obama’s pastor disaster had
come out earlier.

But the last thing of note in the findings is buried in the next to the last spot and is very important, because it shows
a definite shift in Clinton’s perceived chances to win:

- Nearly six-in-ten Democratic voters (57%) believe that Obama is most likely to win the party’s nomination, while 28% expect Clinton to prevail. Last month, 70% said Obama was most likely to win, while 17% expected Clinton to win.

Clinton’s chances rose by 11%, while Obama’s dropped 13%.

Maybe that’s why elite progressives and their DC counterparts are pushing to
end the primary.

Question is, why did Clinton rise, while Obama dropped? Could it be Rev. Wright?

… .. The basic difference between Clinton and Obama supporters is observed across all three age groups. In each instance, Clinton supporters are less likely to support Obama against McCain than are Obama supporters to support Clinton against McCain. Democratic Groups Most at Risk of Deserting

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