Hillary’s Chances
20 March 2008 6:00 pm by Taylor Marsh
Getting a lot of emails and questions about the state of the race right now.
So here’s my take on where it stands.
Barack Obama is still in the driver’s seat for the nomination. However, his
place in the race has undergone an earthquake shift leaving many people with
doubts where there once were none, with others gone for good. That, however,
doesn’t change “the math,” which is still on his side.
But it will take more than the right numbers to win the nomination. That’s
why the Wright situation, which was joined today by “typical white person”
gaffe has become a huge challenge for Obama, especially as this gets more coverage.
David Gregory’s new show “Road to the White House” has proven one
thing this week. He knows what a journalist’s job is and he’s going to do it,
which includes doing politically incorrect things like playing the video that
got the McCain aide suspended, as well as having Joe Scarborough bring up Huffington
Post breaking the “typical white person” story, which happened to
also be my post on the subject. In addition, Gregory will not flinch from covering
Clinton equally honestly, which won’t always be good for Clinton either. But
that’s as it should be, with everyone getting equal heat. The point
I’m making is that some in the traditional media have decided to weigh in fairly,
which is a real change for Obama, something for which he and his team are clearly
not prepared.
Meanwhile, the superdelegates are watching all this play out, with Wright’s
greatest hatred hits on YouTube sending a chill down their collective spine.
But not just because of the race issue, but because of the un-American screeds
that left Senator Obama still sitting in the pews of this church. That’s fine
for regular folks, but not if you want to be president. However, there is absolutely
no way the superdelegates can move away from Obama unless something shifts the
race in Clinton’s direction, giving them real numbers and a general election
playing field that would support them weighing in for Clinton instead of Obama.
Otherwise there would be a firestorm of protest and rightly so. Imagine if Clinton
had the lead in delegates and states won and the popular vote, then superdelegates
weighed in and took it from her. Bedlam would ensue.
However, we are now at a moment of shift in the primary race where everything
that applied before doesn’t any longer. The superdelegates have to know what
waits for Barack Obama in the general election through Wright, but also his
comment today, even including what Michelle Obama said weeks ago that so infuriated
your humble blog host. It’s cumulative now. Vetting Obama has been an ugly scene so far, mainly because he’s gotten such a soft ride throughout the primary season.
Fast forward… If Clinton racks up wins in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and
Indiana, doing so by increasing her blue collar vote and lunch bucket Dem numbers,
with Obama continuing to bleed voters needed in November, superdelegates will be in a real dilemma. If at that time the Wright situation
continues to fester, Obama’s value as a general election candidate, regardless
of numbers and his gifts, will be in real jeopardy. Clinton can’t catch Obama
in delegates, with no re-vote on Michigan and Florida hurting her on popular
vote totals as well. But in this mix throw Obama’s sinking poll numbers, especially
against John McCain, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster in November. Even so, Obama’s supporters will be inconsolable if their candidate, with so much in the win column, is denied the nomination.
If Obama’s poll numbers stabilize, superdelegates weigh in conclusively for
him, which is still the safe bet and he’s the nominee.
However, if Obama continues to sink and the Wright situation doesn’t go away,
with Clinton racking up big numbers, including in the general election demographics
Dems need to win in November, superdelegates know their job.
Obama’s real political problem is that he simply hasn’t answered why he sat
in the pews of Trinity listening to Rev. Wright long after he delivered anti-American
screeds. This still sits out there for Obama to answer, which should have been
done by now. It seems obvious he can’t answer it effectively or he would have
by now.
All of a sudden the race is thrown on its head. Right now it’s
still advantage Obama to be the Democratic nominee. However, Wright has damaged
him in a way that the Democratic party will not recover in the general election. The YouTubes
are that incendiary, which I don’t need to explain to anyone. The trouble for Hillary is that all of these developments
may be too late to offer a road for her to win. On the other hand, if all these developments against Obama continue to fester, Obama will not survive to be the nominee.
A lot of ifs. Only time will tell what the outcome will be.
