McCain will be Tough to Beat
06 February 2008 5:29 pm by Taylor Marsh
Patrick
Buchanan said a mouthful today about McCain. He “will make Cheney
look like Gandhi.” Not exactly a campaign slogan for the general
election. He’s said any number of scary things, including staying in Iraq for
100 years. His "bomb, bomb, bomb" Iran song proves he’d better keep
his day job. You can bet McCain will have the pundits behind him. Digby talked
about this today. Whether it’s Clinton or Obama, you can bet that the tilt in
the press will go to McCain. His biography alone will do it. Sentimentality
is brutal come election season.
The other problem for Democrats is that Congress, in the minds of many, has
squandered the good will of election ‘06. They were given the nod because of
one issue: Iraq. They haven’t done near enough, besides jawbone the issue. Now
you can go into a litany of reasons why, but the bottom line is that not one
single thing has changed in Iraq. Voters will be more skeptical this time.
In fact, it’s actually worse than that. McCain has turned the issue into a
"we want to win" in Iraq. The Democrats, doing nothing since ‘06,
have given the perception (which is your average voters’ reality) that we as
a party are stymied on Iraq, or too spineless to vote our conscience. Advantage
McCain on national security. The other truth that plays into McCain’s Iraq advantage
is that a good number of Americans, though most absolutely want out of Iraq,
also feel we’ve screwed the pooch there and owe the Iraqis. That hasn’t changed
at all. Couple that with the region and what we’ll leave behind, along with
the Dems doing nothing since ‘06, and you’ve got everyone looking to John "the
surge" McCain, who fought for the current strategy that has taken Iraq
off of the front pages and beyond the minds of many. The other issue is that
the appeal to "win" in Iraq goes right into the vein in the American
spirit that rouses emotions of pride. You know, that thing that works in election seasons.
Democrats and progressives see McCain as "Dr. Strangelove," thus
we demonize him whenever possible. After all, it’s easy to do. The average American
does not. There is a lot of pull to someone who almost died for his country,
and still bears the wounds of that war, and to this day can’t raise his arms
because of being tortured. Mind you, I’m not making the case for John McCain,
which I couldn’t do. However, I think the current conversation about him from many Democrats
is unhelpful and too extreme. Vilifying this man or making him a caricature
will not hurt him. It will hurt Democrats. On policy we can whip him badly.
However, the average voter doesn’t just vote on issues. They vote on emotions,
connection, and the character of the candidate. Roll video.
There will be an emotional connection to John McCain that will be difficult
to dislodge. Demonizing won’t be enough. It might even create the opposite reaction.
What has been squandered by Democrats since ‘06 is real. It’s been reported
that Nancy Reagan will lend John McCain credibility with CPAC when it meets.
There will also be a biographical video, one is on the web as well, showing
McCain with Reagan. The whole campaign smacks of a revitalization campaign for
the entire Republican party. A revival of Reaganism. This is something they
desperately need and crave. At their lowest ebb in decades, the Republicans
will likely fall in a swoon. You will always have your Ann Coutlers and James
Dobsons, but losing them is also a win. Replacing them will be the Christy Todd
Whitman and Jack Danforth wing of moderate Republicans, trying to take back
their party. It’s the reason the wingnut vein, including radio, is so exercised.
They see their power being stripped and are cornered and dangerous, as we’ve
seen recently. But the symbol and message was sent when Rudy Giuliani stood
next to McCain as Gov. Ah-nold endorsed “Mac.”
Oh, and as a reminder, the larger electorate doesn’t vote on issues. They vote
on emotion, on the tie they have to their candidate, and what that person taps
into in their soul. John McCain is one of the worst speakers and extemporaneous
stump politicians I’ve ever seen. His age hurts, but it also translates to decades of experience. Is he that change factor so big right now? He can trade on his image as a maverick to push that point and he will be change from runaway government spending, that’s for sure; but he also will bring that Teddy Roosevelt environmental spirit back to the GOP. The west will love him for it. Democrats will have to make the case that he’s another Bush term. But rightly or wrongly, there is something about John McCain that many people
trust. That makes them feel safe. Or at least that’s what the media has created
and will continue to push. He’s one of their favorites and that’s not going to change. It’s the story they’ll tell. Then McCain’s team will roll the
video. Biography will do the rest.
