Taylor Marsh – TaylorMarsh.com – News, Opinion and Weblog on Progressive Politics

Pre Super Tuesday Spin updated

See Ben Smith’s “Empty Seats.” The arena holds 13,000; Obama team est. 8,000 attended; Obama attracted 14,000 in Boise. Clinton had 10,000 in CA; with 4,000 today. Tonight’s national townhall

Obama has turned into the establishment candidate. Look at the endorsements.
It seems odd for someone who doesn’t want to build a bridge to the 20th century
now trying to channel 1960’s Kennedy magic. (Others have written about this recently, too.) Obama also
has the momentum, the media, raised more money lat month (though she beat him last year), oh, and did I mention more
favorable media coverage? He’s no longer the little challenger. Obama’s even talking about this race in past tense.

OBAMA: Well, look, this was the same argument that they made when I was running against Senator Clinton. (Politico.com)

Obama’s the “wave” coming at Clinton, who hasn’t missed a beat, which will continue tonight during her townhall, as well as on “Letterman.” She also got two Sunday shows, hitting hard on “This Week,” and has real support and energy, with early voting in California benefiting Clinton.

So as to spin, off a conference call with the Clinton campaign about tomorrow, Howard
Wolfson said something that will quicken the hearts of political junkies far
and wide: Nomination fight could go all the way to the convention.
Penn’s teased as much before. Truth is, as Wolfson stated, the early calendar
has “bumped up against” the way Democrats proportionally allot delegates.
Not sure if it was Mark Penn or Wolfson, but they did say they expect to be
ahead in delegate counts on February 6th. They definitely both believe Florida
and Michigan delegates should be seated and counted, also making sure to state Ohio and Pennsylvania are coming up (see you in March). Clinton’s got the backing of Governors Rendell and Stanton. Message: we’re going all the way and will fight it. Someone tell Obama to check his tenses.

But it’s Marc
Ambinder who has the most interesting post on pre Super Tuesday spin today. Plouffe
memo is featured first below, with the “I’m sorry,” coming from Ambinder.

February 4, 2008 To: Interested Parties From: David Plouffe RE: Putting Tomorrow into Perspective … .. Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states. Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests. … .. I’m sorry. Hold up, time out. What?? Unless every Obama adviser I’ve spoken to over the past year has out and out lied to me, a big day on Feb. 5 has always been a big part of Obama’s nomination strategy. That doesn’t mean they always expected to win it…just that, for months, the campaign devoted unusual amounts of resources to building robust organizations in the states…and claims 75,000 active volunteers. Seems like the Obama campaign is setting expectations way low so they can beat them as easily as the Giants front four beat through the line to Tom Brady. … .. Plouffe Memo: We’re The Giants, Baby

I’m sorry is right, followed by this is pure unadulterated horse pucky.
For all the criticisms Mark Penn gets (and deserves, including on this blog),
you can’t find anything remotely resembling candor in Plouffe’s memo. February
5th is absolutely a “big part of Obama’s nomination strategy,” just
as Ambinder writes. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to put down the wine bottle
and step away from the cheese. Obama’s team deserves a lot of credit for an incredible
few weeks, which no doubt has caused Clinton’s team to work even harder (if
that’s possible). But as Ambinder also writes, it’s time for Obama to step up
and take his position as the candidate with the big mo, because he can no longer
pretend he’s Bambi. Nobody’s buying it and shouldn’t. He needs to perform very well tomorrow and there is every expectation that he will. But this “I’m just the little challenger” routine deserves rotten tomatoes.

As for the questions on the call, Bowers
asked about delegates. (He also adds. “To my surprise, the campaign actually
took my question.” I’ve been on all of these calls and they don’t screen anyone
out that I’ve heard.) Carl Bernstein asked if it was true if Chelsea Clinton
was calling superdelegates, and if so, how does that jibe with her not talking
to reporters. Howard didn’t know the answer, but promised one. Look for it. (Politico.com reports it’s true).
Ann Kornblut wanted a number on what delegate number they expected out of tomorrow.
No one knows. But you can bet that will be the story tomorrow.

Obama has outrasied Clinton… has won more delegates than her… is, as I said, tied or leading in major polls… has name ID almost as high as she does… has favorable ratings that exceed hers…. and still claims to be the underdog. That’s one stretch of a definition. We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.

That’s the number for Obama: “within 100 delegates.” If Clinton bests him by over 100 that will be big news. She could, because her organization and national support is strong and deep. But this cuts the other way too; so if he out performs, the headlines will create more momentum and deservedly so. But Plouffe needs to give up the dampening of expectations. Obama’s campaign has had a dream seven days, with the mo to show for it. It stopped being a David and Goliath story some time ago.

UPDATE: SusanUnPC has another photo from the event.