|graph via Wall Street Journal|
Street Journal offers a sense of where we stand right now in the primaries. The part about Florida below will undoubtedly bring forth a flurry of blogging:
But Mr. Obama heads into the 22-state showdown as the underdog. The Illinois
senator trails Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York by large margins in polls
in most of the big states voting Feb. 5. And he lacks the time or resources
to campaign intensively in many of those far-flung races to close the gaps.
Looking for some fresh momentum of her own, Mrs. Clinton has started calling
attention to the largely ignored Democratic vote tomorrow in Florida, a state
where a recent poll gave her a 48% to 28% edge. All the Democratic candidates
have pledged not to campaign in Florida, which was stripped of all its delegates
by the Democratic National Committee as punishment for moving its primary
into January. Though the party forbade candidates from staging rallies there,
it is allowing fund-raising visits; Mrs. Clinton has three scheduled today,
in Sarasota and Miami. And she now plans to visit Florida after the polls
close tomorrow night to “thank her supporters.” …
… Among the major Super Tuesday contests, Mrs. Clinton has wide — in some
cases double-digit — polling leads in California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts,
Arizona, Missouri and Alabama. Mr. Obama leads in his home state of Illinois
and in Georgia.
The demographics in many of those states also seem to play more to Mrs. Clinton’s
strengths, with big populations of Latinos and white women, groups that helped
carry her to victory over Mr. Obama in New Hampshire and Nevada.
But we’ll have to see how Senator Kennedy’s endorsement plays out. He’s a great
senator who could hold sway. Clinton has Kennedy’s of her own as well, including,
besides Robert Kennedy Jr., Kathleen
Kennedy Townsend. Frankly, I’m one of the only people who aren’t that impressed
with any endorsement, except the power these people have on a candidate’s supporters.
They also create headlines and stories, but I believe people vote their own
heart and conscience. I believe emotional connection to a candidate or the identity
attachment to him or her is what makes people vote for someone. Unless an issue
is raised and becomes the emotional tug to a political party, issues are usually
a secondary pull. But they are used effectively, like when anti gay marriage amendments were used in 2004. In 2006 the Iraq war was a powerful emotional pull towards Democrats.
But the story of super Tuesday wouldn’t be complete unless you had the what
if scenario, as in if it’s not settled that day. Segue to the story of the superdelegates.