Second-Tier Shaping Up for Obama?
03 January 2008 8:28 am by Taylor Marsh
Second-Tier Shaping Up for Obama? updated
NEWS FLASH: I’ve been in direct contact with Biden’s team, who flatly denies cutting deals with Obama or any other candidate. Rumors are swirling, but I can’t confirm Chase Martyn’s piece either. Huffington Post and TPM can’t be confirmed either. Biden’s team is headed for New Hampshire, no matter what happens in Iowa. I’ve got that from the top.
“Our campaign has NOT cut any deals with Senator Obama’s campaign or any other. … .. We are looking forward to this evening … and then New Hampshire!!” – Biden team
Interesting “exclusive” from our friend Chase Martyn. (TM NOTE: I cannot confirm Chase’s story.) It seems obvious
that people don’t believe Edwards can pull off a win, because he’s actually
much closer to Richardson’s view on Iraq than Mr. Obama. It’s a calculation
to help someone they deem would be a winner.
Gov. Bill Richardson’s campaign is expected to direct their supporters to
caucus for Sen. Barack Obama in the second round of voting at Thursday’s caucuses
in precincts where he is not viable. Two sources familiar with the plan told
Iowa Independent that the New Mexico Governor’s organizers have been instructed
to direct supporters to Obama in the places where they fail to reach the 15%
threshold for viability.Richardson, whose poll numbers in Iowa have hovered near 10% since June,
may need a solid fourth-place finish in the caucuses to continue his campaign.
And he is best served by directing support away from former Sen. John Edwards,
who consistently polls between him and the two national front-runners, Obama
and Sen. Hillary Clinton, in national and early state polls. … ..[Ed. note: For about ten minutes when this story was first published,
it asserted that there was a mutual agreement between the Richardson and Obama
campaigns to swap supporters in precincts where one was not viable. This,
it turns out, resulted from a misunderstanding that has since been cleared
up. There is no deal between the two campaigns; there is only a strategic
decision -- one which makes complete sense -- on the part of the Richardson
campaign about where to direct its supporters if their group is not viable
in certain precincts.]
In Zogby poll,
Clinton drops to third. Joan Walsh:
If Clinton was rattled by the final Des Moines Register poll showing her trailing Barack Obama she didn’t show it. I’ve never seen her calmer or warmer.
The story today is turning towards Obama everywhere you look. Tom Schaller:
Perhaps this explains the eerie confidence that David Plouffe, Obama national director, was exuding tonight after Obama’s final event, held at the Hoover High School in Des Moines. “[John Edwards] is our main challenge for second-choice caucus-goers and Sen. [Hillary] Clinton is a much different area code with second-choicers,” he said, which is not news at this point. But this was a bit more revealing: “All I know is that of the [Bill] Richardson, [Chris] Dodd and [Joe] Biden people we are a very strong second-choice, Edwards we believe a little less so, and Clinton less so.”
Then from Steve Benen:
* Given that Obama has a very different policy background from Biden, Dodd, and Richardson (all of whom have decades of experience in Washington), isn’t Obama the unexpected choice for these campaigns? (Or is it part of some more Machiavellian strategy, whereby Obama weakens Hillary and knocks Edwards out, therefore opening up the race up for the second-tier?)
* If Obama does pick up support from Biden, Richardson, and Kucinich, doesn’t that make a caucus victory far more likely? And won’t he owe these guys in a big way?
I’ve been covering Iowa for over six months, as regular readers and listeners are aware. I’ve talked to people in Iowa on the ground there for a very long time. I can tell you two things conclusively: 1) No one knows how this will turn out tonight, because no one can gage who will actually, well, turn out; 2) No matter who wins Iowa, including if Clinton pulls out a now much unexpected victory, this race will not be decided until February 5th, though many people will drop out along the way.
People can hope, prognosticate and spin all day long, which they will. I simply can’t tell you who I believe will win Iowa. I simply do not know and neither does anyone else. Not very profound, but it’s the bottom line. Anything can happen.
Oh, and by the way, ARG has Clinton way up. It proves my point.
