Taylor Marsh – TaylorMarsh.com – News, Opinion and Weblog on Progressive Politics

Lou Dobbs is smiling.

Call it the rise of the independent, if the
DMR
poll numbers hold, which has the potential to shake this race up in a way
that no one can predict. Below are some thoughts for you to ponder on this glorious
New Year’s Day, where we all get a fresh start. I seriously hope everyone had
a lovely holiday and wish you all great joy and abundance in 2008. I’m excited
about the prospects.

David Yepsen’s analysis, which was very fair and thoughtful, hints of something
that I’ve been fighting from the start and is the reason Mr. Obama deserves and has received
a very critical eye around here. It’s ideological, as I’ve said time
and again, which is why I’m so passionate about it. Ideology matters and with
Mr. Obama running a non-ideological campaign trying to excavate his philosophy
has not been easy, especially with everyone emotionally involved with “change,”
but paying no attention to what the details of that change actually means. The
key graph from Yepsen on this subject is below:

Clinton remains the favorite of the party faithful, with support from a third of self-described Democrats. However, Obama is the clear choice of caucusgoers who affiliate with neither the Democrat or Republican parties, with roughly 40 percent of them backing him in the survey. The support from non-Democrats is significant because a whopping 40 percent of those planning to attend described themselves as independent and another 5 percent as Republican. Only registered Democrats can participate in the caucuses, although rules allow participants to change their party registration on their way in to the caucuses.

Now to Pollster.com:

A few quick observations. What “will raise some eyebrows among party pros,” as Yepsen puts it, is the fact that a “whopping” 60% of the Democratic caucus goers say this will be their first caucus and only 54% say they are Democrats (40% identify as independents and 5% as Republicans). Compare these results to what other polls have shown earlier in 2007 and it becomes clear that this Register sample predicts a very different set of caucus participants than in years past.

As Yepsen explained, there’s a lot of movement that could still happen between
now and Thursday, so it’s still anyone’s caucus, and that’s what you should
all know. But who will make up the Iowa caucus folds in exactly with the type
of campaign Mr. Obama is running and the type of candidate he is, which is something that has bothered
me from the start. Reaching out beyond Democrats to win is important, but attracting non-ideological individuals before the general election also changes the nominee we get, because political philosophy becomes moot. I’ve explained this in post after post.

As I’ve said a thousand times, people don’t vote in general elections on policies.
They vote on gut and emotion. Primaries are different because there have been
only dedicated Democrats (or Republicans) voting, so ideological differences
and policies have always mattered most. But throw in a significant amount of
independents, and ideology becomes a secondary notion, which has always been
the very identity of Obama’s campaign. It’s about him and his talent to lead,
the very notion of his personality which is predicated on inspiring Democrats
and Republicans to come together to craft compromises and consensus. That’s
going to appeal to anyone who isn’t ideologically bound to one party or another.
Mr. Obama has bet the primaries on reaching out beyond Democrats, which is exactly
how he intends to win the general election as well. But if independents caucus
for Obama they will be loyal to him, not our ideology.

The importance of this poll cannot be denied. It should excite Obama’s supporters,
which is exactly what he needs to win, because first-time caucus goers have
to be inspired to get out and this poll could do it. That said, we have no clue
whatsoever if they will come out. As Yepsen and Pollster.com both show, all
bets are off because the numbers we’re seeing now have no relation at all to
prior elections. However, this poll is nothing but great news for Obama and his supporters,
because they need Iowa badly.

As an aside, in Chase Martyn’s power
rankings, he picked Obama in his last write up. We’ve had many discussions on
my radio show over the last months about the Iowa primaries, with our last before the caucuses coming
up on Wednesday that you won’t want to miss.

As for Clinton, she’s got the backing of Democrats. The independents Obama is bringing out is the challenge. The reality is that Iowa has never been a must for her. Her
detractors will call that low balling expectations, but it’s simply a fact.
She looks like a solid second place right now. She’s also always had a long-term
strategy that stretches through February 5th. If the DMR numbers hold up, how
big the win is for Obama will matter, because he will get a surge if he wins,
no doubt about it.

The DMR poll is the worst news possible for the Edwards camp, which doesn’t
match up with all the other news we’ve been hearing. But considering the huge
sample of independents compared to Democrats in the other polls, that could
be the difference. But if his supporters feel Edwards isn’t going to make it
they won’t be able to turn out their vote and something altogether different
could happen, with defections a real worry right now. Here’s a memo they sent
out, no doubt to keep everything from collapsing, that I received late New Year’s
Eve, which others have already posted:

The poll is at odds with history. The poll says 60% of Democratic caucus participants will be first timers who have never before participated in a caucus. This matters in the horserace because the poll finds that about three-quarters of Obama’s supporters are first-timers. The poll is at odds with known tenets of partisan caucus participation. The poll says 45% of those at Democratic caucuses will be Independents or Republicans. This matters because the entirety of Obama’s “lead” is due to his advantage among non-Democrats. The poll is at odds with other polls. Several other polls show a closer race with other candidates leading. Others seem suspicious of the horserace numbers. David Yepsen’s column highlights the fluidity of the results rather than the horserace. What does the poll say? The race is close. The race is yet to be decided. 34% say they could change their minds, and 6% do not express a preference. This means 40% have not made a final decision. As Yepsen points out, 21% of those in the 2004 entrance poll said they had made their decisions in the last 3 days — something this poll cannot capture. The trend is moving toward Edwards. The nightly results show Obama’s support flat over the last two nights, Clinton’s declining each night, and Edwards’ support increasing each night. Also, for reference, check out these three recent polls: KCCI/LEE NEWSPAPERS POLL Edwards 29 Clinton 28 Obama 29 LA TIMES/BLOOMBERG NEWS POLL Edwards 25 Clinton 31 Obama 22 STRATEGIC VISIONS Edwards 28 Clinton 29 Obama 30

As for the Republicans, Huckabee is still giving Slick Mitt indigestion, leading by six.

In the end all the speculation in the world does no good. We’ll know soon enough.
It’s very exciting.

Again, Happy New Year to you all.

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