Is it Really Over Already for Obama?
27 October 2007 12:00 pm by Taylor Marsh
Is it Really Over Already for Obama?
Expert guest post by Michael
Fauntroy
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The emerging consensus appears to be that Senator Hilary Clinton has all but
locked up the Democratic presidential nomination. That appears premature when
one examines the fundraising numbers where Senator Barack Obama has led for
most of the year and now just barely trails Clinton. The fundraising totals
would suggest that the race is close. The state-by-state polls, however, tell
a different story, one that will depress Obama supporters. After looking at
the polls, one can only conclude that barring some enormous collapse by Clinton,
the race is already over.
Clinton’s surge, no pun intended, coincides with her increase in Black
support. Her lead in national polls ranges from 27 to 32 points, sizable by
any measure. While the state-by-state polls mean more, she is steadily closing
in on the nomination. Twenty-nine polls, mostly of likely voters, have been
taken in the last month in the first nine primary/caucus states. Not one shows
Obama leading and only four have him within single digits and they are all in
Iowa where Clinton averages a +5 point lead. Clinton has substantial, landslide-like
average leads in each state: +20% in New Hampshire; +13 in South Carolina; +27
in Florida; +27 in Nevada; +19 in Michigan; +25 in California; +22 in Pennsylvania;
and +25 in New Jersey.
Obama’s team argues that these polls are meaningless and that his support
levels is actually undercounted. That may be true, but these polls show that
even with an undercount, Obama has a lot of work to do.
Michael K. Fauntroy is an assistant professor of public policy at George
Mason University and author of Republicans
and the Black Vote.
