Clinton’s Iran Gambit
26 October 2007 12:07 am by Taylor Marsh
“Well, the Cheney element of the administration is well represented in the United States Senate.” – Senator James Webb
On “Hardball,” James Webb said he was about to try again with
his Iran bill, which now has Clinton as a co-sponsor. It couldn’t come soon
enough for Clinton. With Mr. Bush burning rhetoric on Iran, her Kyl-Lieberman
vote may yet turn into her biggest liability and vulnerability. Bush’s designation
of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as a WMD proliferator, topped off with his
naming the elite Quds Force as a supporter of terrorism, is the hardest line
we’ve taken on Iran since Carter. The first time we’ve designated a military
force attached to a state as a supporter of terrorism. The Kyl-Lieberman legislation,
coupled with Bush’s latest moves, remind everyone of 2002 and how we got into Iraq, which is a place Clinton doesn’t want to be. Omens
are popping and it’s making people nervous.
“The president does not want to be stuck — and doesn’t want his successor
to be stuck — between two bad choices: living with an Iranian nuclear weapon
or using military force to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons,”
said Peter D. Feaver, who recently left a staff position on the National Security
Council. “He is looking for a viable third way, negotiations backed up
by carrots and sticks, that could resolve the Iranian nuclear file on his
watch or, failing that, offer a reasonable prospect of doing so on his successor’s
watch.”Even so, the administration’s actions yesterday immediately rekindled fears
among Democrats and other countries that the administration is on a path toward
war. Bush’s charged rhetoric in recent months, including a warning that Iran
could trigger a “nuclear holocaust,” and his close consultations
with hard-liners — such as former Commentary editor Norman Podhoretz — have
led many outside the White House to conclude that the president will order
airstrikes to eliminate any Iranian nuclear capability.
War with Iran is absolute madness, especially given our vulnerability in Iraq
and the strength of Iran’s nationalist population, not to mention the current state of our armed forces. But I’m not convinced Bush wouldn’t lob a cruise missile
or two if the situation turned sour. It always worries me when tensions are
high, language is careless, and troops and weapons are all poised near the fault
line. That the Senate is willing to offer up careless legislation that props up the president’s favorite pastime doesn’t engender much security.
Of course, Clinton is sure her vote was the right move. But with people like Webb, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, John Edwards and Barack Obama lined up on the other side she doesn’t have much primary cover, especially as Bush sharpens his sabers. Wesley Clark is beloved in Iowa so that helps and he should be utilized at every opportunity. That Clinton was playing for the general election is the reality. As for
Obama, something I’ve been thinking about for quite a few days is the more I
picture Obama being in New Hampshire when the vote took place the less and less
I’m believing it was an accident or scheduling problems. It’s the best of both
worlds for him, especially looking out over the long run.
So if the status quo reigns on Iran through the next several months into the
primaries and nothing serious happens on Iran, Clinton won’t be harmed at all
by her vote on Kyl-Lieberman. But if anything serious develops or if tensions
continue to rise, with Iran taking center stage in the press, the primary gamble
Clinton made could backfire. If it starts to look like Iran is in Bush’s crosshairs,
anyone who voted to give him more battle space to ponder a move on Iran is going
to be hurt. On the other hand, if Clinton snags the nomination her vote on Kyl-Lieberman
will serve her very well in the general, which is their play. She’ll be seen
as strong, sending a message to Iran and their allies, as well as our friends,
including Israel, that she’s not afraid to do what’s necessary, portraying her
as a serious player in foreign policy who can stand down the bad guys and do
whatever it takes, even if it’s not popular with progressives. That’s Clinton’s gambit. With her
commanding lead nationally, the campaign is obviously hoping it solidifies perception
enough in Iowa that she’s going to win that more people move into her column to solidify her Iowa poll numbers even further. Everyone likes to vote for a winner. However, as Mike Lux writes, she’s
vulnerable on the second choice angle, which matters a lot in Iowa, something
Chase Martyn has talked about as well.
I e-mailed multiple folks on the Hillary campaign staff how they were doing
in terms of the second choice, and got radio silence back, which I’m pretty
sure is a bad sign.That this would be the case makes logical sense to me. If you are for the
wildmen, Kucinich and Gravel, Hillary isn’t going to be your second choice.
If you get behind Dodd because of his strong stand on FISA, or Richardson
because of his strong stand on residual troops, Hillary’s probably not your
backup choice. And with most frontrunners, the people not with them are looking
for somebody else in general, and tend to coalesce behind whatever alternative
is still in the game.
But the real danger for Clinton right now is that there’s quite a few weeks
until Thanksgiving, which gives Mr. Bush and his pal Dick Cheney plenty of opportunity
to talk tough on Iran, keeping the sabers rattling loudly, reminding people
again and again of how we got into Iraq, which isn’t what Clinton wants people thinking about. It’s clear Putin is happy to play his
part in this drama as well. Also don’t forget that Ahmadinejad
has Jalili now in place, replacing Khamenei’s man Larijani on the nuclear
front. The hardliners are headliners on both sides now.
James Webb’s legislation demanding Bush come to Congress before engaging in
war with Iran, with Clinton now as a co-sponsor, offers a huge opportunity and
cover for Clinton that could innoculate her from the nervousness her Kyl-Lieberman
vote has caused many.
In the end it all depends on George W. Bush and what plays out on Iran before
the primaries. Watch the Iran news and what rhetoric comes out of the White
House. People are sick of the Iraq war and they don’t want to hear talk of another. That Clinton may have inadvertently tied her fate to Mr. Bush’s wildly eratic militant mood swings is not a place I would want to be this far out. It’s a long time until January.
