There Goes Basra
07 August 2007 11:03 am by Taylor Marsh
There Goes Basra bumped
It was hailed as a success story. Some still contend that it is. However, reality
is setting in down south. Not whether we can make progress, particularly militarily,
in Iraq. But what happens after the progress is made and troops withdraw because
their work is done. What happens next? After all, after you’ve done all you
can the rest is up to the Iraqis right?
In a recent BBC interview, Air Chief Marshal Jock Stirrup, chief of the British
defense staff, insisted that Basra has been a success. But he acknowledged
that judgment depended on “what your interpretation of the mission was
in the first place,” adding: “I’m afraid people had, in many instances,
unrealistic aspirations.”The mission, he said, was simply to “get the place and the people to
a state where Iraqis could run this part of the country, if they chose to.”
The troubles erupting in Basra are not between factions, but among them. Shiite
militias are going after each other to get to the top of the power pile, with
oil money a big part of the mix.
Three major Shiite political groups are locked in a bloody conflict that
has left the city in the hands of militias and criminal gangs, whose control
extends to municipal offices and neighborhood streets. The city is
plagued by “the systematic misuse of official institutions, political
assassinations, tribal vendettas, neighborhood vigilantism and enforcement
of social mores, together with the rise of criminal mafias that increasingly
intermingle with political actors,” a recent report by the International
Crisis Group said. (emphasis added)
Getting to a point where military progress opens out on the opportunity for
us to withdraw has been the mantra from everyone from politicians to military
men and women to everyone in between and beyond. It’s laudible. Then there are the realists,
like myself, who may not be “experts,” but sure as hell have read
everything available to get an idea what exactly can be done to extricate ourselves
from this mess, as well as talk about the realities of that inevitably messy
moment. The conclusion is that the phrase some have been using for months, “holding the lid on,” keeps
coming to mind. No matter what we accomplish, the moment we leave, no matter the progress, all
hell will break loose.
As the British leave Basra, a success story at one point, bedlam is breaking out.
So now what?
Long-term occupation isn’t possible, wise or anywhere near what the Iraqis want. But a longer military presence is what Republicans are looking to if the “surge is working” crowd makes their points and manage to seduce Democrats into believing that keeping the lid on is worth more American lives, money and political capital in a region where our credibility is in the basement. We’re hearing more and more about “the surge is working” every day, so staying longer will be the next inevitable phrase likely uttered.
I’ve been thinking, talking and writing about redeployment lately. Many don’t
like what I’m saying, especially the part about how long our withdrawal from
Iraq will take, regardless of the fact that redeployment is job one no matter the length it takes. (Rep. Sestak will be talking mroe about this on C-SPAN today.) However, we’ve now got proof that there will be another very
real aspect of leaving a country we should have never invaded. No matter what
we do or when we do it, the Iraqis have plans of their own on what will happen
once we’re gone. Some how we’ve got to prepare everyone for what’s about to
happen. Considering all the “surge is working” talk, it’s not going
to be easy, but we better begin. All hell is about to break loose in Basra, which Juan Cole started writing about in May. It was foreshadowing of even more carnage to come, which is beginning to happen in earnest now. This could include our troops becoming sitting ducks, which is exactly what I heard from one military expert recently. Everyone is getting very nervous.
