NIE Shorthand
17 July 2007 9:04 am by Taylor Marsh
NIE Shorthand updated
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| VIDEO (update): Townsend on the NIE |
We’re not safer. Is that short enough for you?
And I don’t know about you, but I detest the term “US Homeland.” What
is this, modern Germany?
According to the new NIE we face a “persistent and evolving terrorist
threat over the next three years.” Funny how there is no mention in the
NIE Key Judgments about
Saudi Arabia.
Among the report’s other findings:
–Al-Qaida is likely to continue to focus on high-profile political, economic
and infrastructure targets to cause mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction,
economic aftershocks and fear. ”The group is proficient with conventional
small arms and improvised explosive devices and is innovative in creating
new capabilities and overcoming security obstacles.”–The group has been able to restore key capabilities it would need to launch
an attack on U.S. soil: a safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas, operational
lieutenants and senior leaders. U.S. officials have warned publicly that a
deal between the Pakistani government and tribal leaders allowed al-Qaida
to plot and train more freely in parts of western Pakistan for the last 10
months.–The group will continue to seek weapons of mass destruction — chemical,
biological or nuclear material — and ”would not hesitate to use them.”–Lebanese Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim extremist group that has conducted
anti-American attacks overseas, may be more likely to consider attacking here,
especially if it believes the United States is directly threatening the group
or its main sponsor, Iran.–Non-Muslim terrorist groups probably will attack here in the next several
years, although on a smaller scale. The judgments don’t name any specific
groups, but the FBI often warns of violent environmental groups, such as Earth
Liberation Front, and others.
Pakisan is a safe haven. They’re also training fighters and Al Qaeda. Excuse
me, but duh.
The New York Sun is trumpeting
Iran.
More soon.
UPDATE: Okay, the problem with the new NIE is that it has one whopping hole in it. There is a lot of evidence that the Iraq war and Bush’s buggling of it has made Al Qaeda much, much stronger. But in the NIE we get nothing. Ilan Goldenberg of National Security Network fills in the holes.
The Invasion of Iraq has Strengthened Al Qaeda’s Hand
The invasion of Iraq has created a new focal point for recruitment, fundraising, training and indoctrination of terrorists. The Nation’s 16 intelligence agencies agree: “We assess that al-Qaeda will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland. In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qaeda to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.” [National Intelligence Estimate, 7/07]
Last year, the nation’s 16 intelligence agencies concurred that Iraq is fueling global terrorism. “We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere. The Iraq conflict has become the ‘cause celebre’ for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of U.S. involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.” [National Intelligence Estimate, 4/06]
Al Qaeda had no significant foothold in Iraq before the invasion. The US presence in Iraq has provided al Qaeda new base camps, new recruits and new prestige. Pentagon resources have been diverted from Afghanistan; where the military had a real chance to hunt down al Qaeda’s leadership. It alienated essential allies in the war against terrorism and drained the strength and readiness of American troops. [NY Times, 7/8/07]
Iraq is a failing state, which is more likely to become a terrorist safe haven. Foreign Policy magazine ranked Iraq as the second most unstable country in the world in its recently released Failed State Index. Only Sudan is considered more unstable. [Foreign Policy, July/August 2007]
Terrorist attacks around the rest of the Middle East have risen significantly since the U.S. invasion of Iraq. As of September 2006 there had been 37 attacks in Arab countries outside of Iraq since the invasion, while there were only 3 in the period between 9/11 and March 2003. The rate of attacks in Arab countries jumped by 445 percent since the Iraq invasion, while the rate of killings rose by 783 percent. [Mother Jones]
